Predict the 43rd Canadian federal election, 2019

[136or142]

My partisan bias to be sure, but I actually have a track record of generally underestimating with my predictions (predicted a narrow B.C Liberal majority reelection, a minority Federal Liberal win in 2015.)

With Doug Ford playing to his base and if 2019 is another hot summer and Scheer either tries to evade the issue or actively campaigns against the carbon tax, I'll go out on a limb and predict a landslide Liberal reelection.  I think in this scenario the Conservatives will lose around half of the 33 seats they hold in Ontario while the Liberals will also take several ridings from the NDP in Quebec and in British Columbia due to Conservative weakness.

So, if 2019 is another hot summer, I predict the Liberals will win somewhere slightly over 200 seats.

[136or142]

I don't see the Conservatives losing seats in Ontario.  They were pretty much reduced to their core vote and stoking fears about immigration and railing against the carbon tax won't hurt them in the ridings they hold.

BC seems to be trending away from the Conservatives more than Ontario is - but they were reduced to pretty little already last time in seats.

I'm sure you know more about Ontario politics than I do, but most of these seats were won by the Conservatives pretty narrowly in 2015 and a slight shift to the Liberals based on either
1.Dislike of the fearmongering politics
2.Dislike of Doug Ford and his mindless populism
3.A shift of some New Democrats to the Liberals

could swing a bunch of them to the Liberals.

1.Carleton
2.Barrie-Inisfil
3.Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte
4.Simcoe-Grey
5.Simcoe North
6.Markham-Unionville
7.Oshawa
8.Flamborough-Glanbrook
9.Milton
10.Niagara Falls
11.Brantford-Brant
12.Huron-Bruce
13.Kitchener-Conestoga
14.Perth-Wellington
15.Chatham-Kent-Leamington
16.Sarnia-Lambton
17.Parry Sound-Muskoka

[136or142]

I don't see the Liberals winning many of those seats.

Maybe one or both of the Barrie seats. It will also depend on if some popular incumbents retire. Milton, Niagara Falls and Brantford-Brant are all possible pickups if their incumbents don't run for re-election.

For especially Oshawa, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Brantford-Brant and Sarnia-Lambton it also depends on how well the NDP does.

[136or142]

I really don't see the rural Ontario seats flipping to the Liberals.  If they couldn't take them during the height of the red wave, I don't see them taking them next time.  

In Harper's first time out leading the newly merged Conservative Party - where the attempt to put on a more moderate face failed time out - the Tories got 24 out of 106 seats in Ontario.  I really don't see them going below that in a worst case scenario.

And then in 2011 the Conservatives won 73 of 106 seats in Ontario.

[136or142]

Also on the carbon tax, I have yet to see any evidence opposing it will be harmful even if there is a hot summer.  People may care about climate change, but people tend to care about their wallets even more.  At best Scheer's opposition to carbon tax might help ensure millennials show up again, but amongst boomers they are known to vote on their own self interest.  If you live in the urban centres, yes opposition to carbon tax will hurt them but they won't win those areas anyways.  But in the suburbs and rural areas where people's carbon footprint is a lot higher, I think if anything Scheer's opposition will help him not hurt.  Same reason Harper's stance on the GST helped him even though every economist panned the idea.  Likewise also why Trudeau's tax cut for the middle class by hiking it for the rich was popular even though many economists warned it would hurt our competitiveness was extremely popular.  Voters generally like having more money in their pockets at least amongst boomers and GenXers even if doing so is not beneficial to society as a whole.

It's not entirely logical since an imposition of the carbon tax certainly isn't going to reduce the increases in temperature right away, but I think people are beginning to appreciate that global warming has direct financial costs on them in terms of requiring costly air conditioning, as well as other costs like feeling dragged out and being unable to go out at all on extremely hot days.  And then there are the people who die from extreme heat waves.