Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

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Any place to listen to the primary returns on the radio or watch it on television?

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Yeah, I'd never heard of Kimbrough before today, but he's pulled in 20,000 votes so far.

He's a retired postal worker

Well, he was a senior manager in engineering for the U.S postal service.

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Well lets be honest it is Texas if Democrats crack more than 40% in the Congressional Ballot that is a win.

Democrats topped 40% in the Congressional Ballot in 2016.

I can't find my notebook right now with the aggregate totals, but I think the 2016 Texas aggregate Congressional total was 57% Republican 40% Democratic.

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Any place to listen to the primary returns on the radio or watch it on television?

I found this.

Thanks!

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Television feed on that other station ended, there is coverage here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-to-watch-the-texas-primaries/

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Panic sweeping through Democratic circles --->

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/971226158112047107

I didn't realize that people were reelected to Congress in the primaries.  (I know they are in Louisiana)

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General election turnout will likely be twice that of the primary turnout, you can't really determine much from the primaries.

I agree that Beto O'Rourke doesn't have much chance of defeating Ted Cruz, but having a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can help with down ballot races, and there are a number of potentially competitive U.S House districts, and probably State Senate and State House races as well.

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It's probably silly, but I can't help but think that Alex Triantaphyllis did as poorly as he did because his name reminded people of syphilis.

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U.S House district 14 is 100% reporting.

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Is TX-07 finished? How is Moser looking?

69/153.  Not even close.

Moser at 23.7% in second ahead of 20.1% in third.

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General election turnout will likely be twice that of the primary turnout, you can't really determine much from the primaries.

I agree that Beto O'Rourke doesn't have much chance of defeating Ted Cruz, but having a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can help with down ballot races, and there are a number of potentially competitive U.S House districts, and probably State Senate and State House races as well.

Well, whatever this is, it certainly doesn't look like the VA 2017 primary with everyone and his cousin in the suburbs taking the Dem ballot for Northam, which is what many here were basically expecting.  It's a caution sign that doesn't match up well with what's been happening in the rest of the country.

I don't know who said that.  Southern suburbs outside of Virginia and a couple other Southern States are still heavily Republican. Excluding minority majority suburbs of course.

Jay Hulings could still make the runoff.

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Apparently in Texas 6th Congressional District on the Republican side, with all votes counted both Adrian Mizher and Craig Walker received 0 votes.

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I know Texas isn't likely to turn blue this year (or in the next couple), but Hillary was able to get Trump down to the single digits in Texas in 2016, so I'm pulling for Beto to at least do that.

It's probably more accurate to say that Trump got Trump down to single digits in Texas.

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Well, I guess that's all we're gonna get tonight.  Maybe those counties not reporting will get a computer or phone for the fall.

A big increase in reporting came in about half hour after you posted this.

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As long as TX whites vote 70+ for GOP then it will not be competitive for the near future. VA/CO flipped mainly because whites, every TX blue scenario relies on Latinos and misses the white voters in the equation.

Clinton made gains in Texas mainly on the backs of whites.

No she made gains in the margins due to many Never Trump Republicans voting for Gary Johnson

I mean, a lot of Republicans in TX also crossed over for Hillary. You don't just go from -17 to -9 because of Gary Johnson (who only got 3% of the vote). Some of the suburban districts shifted over 20 points over for Hillary.

There was a pretty big margin shift (17 point margin shift in fact) among college educated whites to Hillary, so yeah, Hillary did make gains due to college educated whites.

Obama won 41.4% of vote in 2012 , Hillary won 43.2%(thats not much of an increase).

It is if you consider that she lost three points compared to Obama nationally.

It also ignores that third party vote surged.   Romney won 57% of the vote, Trump won 52%.   When the two are taken together, that's quite a shift.

1.Hillary Clinton got a higher share of the vote than Barack Obama in 2012 in just five states.

2.These are the Texas numbers from 2016:

Total Presidential votes: 8,969,226

2016 Total Aggregate U.S House votes (I think I'm missing some votes from those who voted for write in candidates)
Total Votes: 8,528,526
Republican: 4,877,605, 57.19%
Democrats: 3,160,535, 37.06%

2014 Texas aggregate U.S House percentages:
Republican: 60.3%
Democratic: 33.1%

2016 Aggregate national U.S House vote total percentages:
Republican: 49.13%
Democratic: 48.04%

2014 Aggregate national U.S House vote total percentages:
Republican: 51.2%
Democratic: 45.5%

3.Nationally the Democrats cut the Republican vote margin by 4.6% while cutting the Republican vote margin by 7.1% in Texas from 2014 to 2016.

So, I think it's fair to say that while the Democrats increased by more in Texas than nationally in 2016, that there is still considerable room for additional movement, especially with those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

4.If we assume that mid term election turnout is about 2/3 of Presidential year turnout (roughly 40% turnout compared to 60%) then about 6 million people will vote in Texas in the midterms and the primary turnout was around 2.7 million.  So, primary turnout is about half of what the general election turnout will be. I don't think making broad conclusions of potentially close races with half the number of voters is a very logical thing to do.

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Anybody know of any Illinois radio or television stations that will be broadcasting/analyzing the results?

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Anybody know of any Illinois radio or television stations that will be broadcasting/analyzing the results?

WGN

Thanks!

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They're saying turnout is around 29% and millenials aren't voting

The mysterious They.  Got a source?

It was mentioned on WGN.

http://wgntv.com/on-air/live-streaming/

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WULFRIC PROJECTION:

U.S. House District 14
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Lauren Underwood
2,300   60.8%
Matthew Brolley
468   12.4
Jim Walz
402   10.6
Victor Swanson
282   7.5
John Hosta
164   4.3
George Weber
109   2.9
Daniel Roldan-Johnson
55   1.5
3,780 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 465 precincts)

A bit early!

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Newman is ahead.

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Newman is ahead.

With under 1% reporting.

Yes, there were incorrect numbers posted above though. I think the reporting was from the wrong district.

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Marie Newman
1,121   53.2%   
Daniel Lipinski*
987   46.8

HERE COMES NEWMAN!

"Newman!"  Jerry Seinfeld

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Lipinski 13,737-11023

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Anybody think Kinzinger could be in a close race?  Apparently he's one of those Republican 'never Trumps.'

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Sean Casten now in second place.  In Texas, he might make it to the runoff.  (It's a joke! Not a funny joke,but a joke nonetheless.)