Manitoba election 2016

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Amanda Lathlin ahead by 20 votes.  34/59 polls reporting.  I believe the byelection started off close as well.

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Greg has stepped down as NDP leader

2 years too late, alas.

Had the gang of five not ganged up, the NDP probably would have won around 20 seats and 30-35% of the vote.

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Steve Ashton is regarded to have a somewhat difficult personality, but I can't imagine that he's a psychopath.

Possible leadership contenders among the MLAs
1.Kevin Chief
2.Andrew Swan
3.James Allum
4.Wab Kinew or Nahanni Fontaine
5.Rob Altemeyer?  (If elected)

Theresa Oswald said on the CBC that she won't run for leader.  She said she's moved on from electoral politics.

I was watching the Global News feed when it crashed on me.  I did not leave it because the moderator of the panel is a right wing moron (anybody know who that is?) 

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Has Rena Bukhari spoken yet?

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Thanks for the information on Bukhari.

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CBC commentator said Brian Pallister's phrase of "nothing is wrong with Manitoba can't be solved by what is right by the people of Manitoba" was a great line.

I don't know if he originated it, but Bill Clinton has been using that phrase (with slight modification) for at least 20 years.

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With the possible exception of Flin Flon, these should be the legislative totals

P.C: 40
NDP: 14
Liberal: 3

In Flin Flon, Tom Lindsey of the NDP is ahead of the P.Cs by 112 votes with possibly one VA outstanding.

In the otherwise last riding outstanding incumbent NDP MLA Mohinder Saran was trailing by 3 votes with one poll outstanding, but in this final poll there were around 1,000 votes and Saran ended up winning by unofficially 117 votes.

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Barring changes due to recounts, this is the new NDP caucus.

North
1.Flin Flon, Tom Lindsey, Retired United Steelworkers Health and Safety Representative, 2016-
2.The Pas, Amanda Lathlin, Incumbent, 2015-

North West Winnipeg
1.Point Douglas, Kevin Chief, Incumbent, 2011-
2.St. Johns, Nahanni Fontaine, Manitoba Government Special Adviser on Aboriginal Women's Issues, Former Southern Chiefs Organization Director of Justice, 2016-
3.The Maples, Mohinder Saran, Incumbent, 2007-
4.Tyndall Park, Ted Marcelino, Incumbent, 2011-

North East Winnipeg
1.Concordia, Matt Wiebe, Incumbent, 2004-
2.Elmwood, Jim Maloway, Incumbent, 1986-2008, 2011-
3.St. Boniface, Greg Selinger, Incumbent, 1999-

Central Winnipeg
1.Fort Garry-Riverview, James Allum, Incumbent, 2011-
2.Fort Rouge, Wab Kinew, University of Winnipeg Associate Vice President for Indigenous Relations, Former CBC Radio and Television Broadcaster and Producer, Hip Hop Artist, Music Producer and Author
3.Logan, Flor Marcelino, Incumbent, 2007-
4.Minto, Andrew Swan, Incumbent, 2004-
5.Wolseley, Rob Altemeyer, Incumbent, 2003-

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Proposed NDP shadow cabinet.

Premier-elect Brian Pallister has promised a 12 member cabinet.

1.Party Leader, Federal-Provincial Relations, Greg Selinger
2.Finance, James Allum
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Flor Marcelino
4.Natural Resources/Mines, Tom Lindsey
5.Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Ted Marcelino
6.Energy/Conservation, Mohinder Saran
7.Transportation and Public Works/House Leader, Rob Altemeyer
8.Children and Family Development/Human Resources and Housing, Nahanni Fontaine
9.Education/Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Wab Kinew
10.Health, Kevin Chief
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal Relations and Northern Affairs/ Status of Women, Amanda Lathlin
12.Justice and Public Safety/Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Andrew Swan

13.Chief Whip, Matt Wiebe
14.Assistant Deputy Speaker, Jim Maloway

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I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
  

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over. (If you think everybody else has gone over, say $1, not $1 less than the next lowest value. I don't know how anybody could mix that up.)

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

3.Possible recounts, closest ridings
1.Elmwood, Jim Maloway, 107 votes
2.Flin Flon, Tom Lindsey, 112 votes (may or may not be one more VA outstanding)
3.The Maples, Mohinder Saran, 117 votes
4.The Pas, Amanda Lathlin, 185 votes
5.Thompson, Kelly Bindle, 210 votes

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I suspect the Elections Manitoba reporting that 43/44 VAs have reported in Flin Flon is incorrect and that all of the votes have been counted.

These are the final unofficial totals

Total Valid Ballots 433,947
P.C: 230,837, 53.19%  40
NDP: 111,722, 25.75   14
Liberal 61,818, 14.25    3
Green: 22,410, 5.16
Other: 7,161

Winnipeg 249,224
P.C: 107,881 43.29%  17
NDP: 78,545 31.52     12
Lib:   42,236 16.95       2
Gr:    17,119  6.87

Rural 155,050
P.C: 108,921 70.25% 20
NDP: 23,115 14.91
Liberal: 14,576, 9.40
Green: 5,075 3.27

North 14,604
P.C: 4,781 32.74% 1
NDP 5,674 38.85   2
Lib: 3,579  24.51  1
Green: 216   1.48

Brandon 15,069
P.C: 9,254 61.41% 2
NDP: 4,388 29.12
Liberal: 1,427 9.47

If you add up the last digit for each of the parties for the province as a whole, it adds up to an '8' whereas the last digit of the total number of voters is a '7' although I believe every vote counts and matters, I can't be bothered to find my small errors.  I'm not doing a bank reconciliation here.

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I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
  

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over.

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

I think King of Kensington was closer no? Back on page 5 he had:
"PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2"
But, s'all good, I think in general the NDP performed about expected vote wise (quarter of the voting population) and slightly better then expected seat count, most people here had them about 10-12 range.

I can see that, Both Robinson and Aston had been around since the 90's, and Lathlin and Lindsey are new blood.

The chatter i'm hearing from New Democrats, after the fact, is Sellinger cost us seats and had he stepped down things would have gone better. So even though the NDP lost, I think many see this as a good thing.

Looks like the NDP got over 50% in only two riding's (Point Douglas and Minto)

I'm sure there were several who got closer without going over than I did, but I was referring to just you and me

Also
1.Steve Ashton had been the MLA for that area since 1981.

2.As I wrote previously, the NDP was back up to around 30% in the polls and only around 10-15% behind the P.Cs when the Gang of Five ganged up on Selinger.  Unlike Brian Pallister, I'm not against mutinying on a leader in general, but when the principle of the rebellion is stated as "we don't think we can win the next election with that leader" those aren't exactly high ideals and the Gang of five gang up and ultimate defeat I think clearly hurt the NDP.

As I wrote, had it not been for this mutiny, my guess is the NDP would have wound up with 30-35% of the vote and around 20 seats.

3.These are the vote percentages of the NDP MLA-elects.

1.Kevin Chief, Point Douglas, 58.90%
2.Andrew Swan, Minto, 51.20%
3.Jim Maloway, Elmwood, 46.32%
4.Matt Wiebe, Concordia, 45.16%
5.Amanda Lathlin, The Pas, 43.45%
6.Greg Selinger, St. Boniface, 42.43%
7.Rob Altemeyer, Wolseley, 41.43%
8.Flor Marcelino, Logan, 39.92%
9.Ted Marcelino, Tyndall Park, 39.39%
10.James Allum, Fort Garry-Riverview, 37.87%
11.Wab Kinew, Fort Rouge, 37.68%
12.Nahanni Fontaine, St Johns, 37.03%
13.Mohinder Saran, The Maples, 36.29%
14.Tom Lindsey, Flin Flon, 32.49% (the NDP incumbent who lost renomination ran as an independent)

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I know this is called the "Atlas" Forum, but why all the interest in maps.  To quote Rita Johnson in her 1991 debate with Mike Harcourt (and Gordon Wilson) "we want the numbers, Mike."

And just like Mike Harcourt was back then, anybody who doesn't provide the numbers is "gutless."

Of course, if you disagree with me on this, that would just be "another classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the legislature Atlas Forum." 

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I know this is called the "Atlas" Forum, but why all the interest in maps.  To quote Rita Johnson in her 1991 debate with Mike Harcourt (and Gordon Wilson) "we want the numbers, Mike."

And just like Mike Harcourt was back then, anybody who doesn't provide the numbers is "gutless."

Of course, if you disagree with me on this, that would just be "another classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the legislature Atlas Forum." 

This is an Atlas forum. If you don't like election maps, you can leave

Trend:

Anyone know what's up with the east-west difference in Winnipeg? Normally I think of Winnipeg as having more of a north-south division.

As mentioned, retiring incumbents have something to do with it, but also the east end of Winnipeg has been trending to the right federally as well (remember when Elmwood-Transcona unexpectedly went Conservative in 2011?) I suspect it's suburbanizing somewhat (though the area of Winnipeg that is expanding is in the SW which actually trended to the NDP), or wealthier people are moving in? Perhaps someone in Manitoba can answer this question better.

I assumed it was due to their being a lot of working class right wing types in the area.  Elmwood-Transcona was also very close in the 2015 Federal election.

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1.Despite losing his seat, Steve Ashton is apparently considering a third run for the leadership of the NDP. I saw Andrew Coyne retweet that earlier today.

2.http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/30/after-ndp-loss-in-manitoba-election-flor-marcelino-in-line-to-become-interim-leader.html

3.Cabinet Prediction.  Pallister has said it will be a 12 member cabinet, I'm not sure if that includes him or not, though.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Brian Pallister
2.Finance/Deputy Premier, Heather Stefanson
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Reg Hewler
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development/Northern Affairs Ralph Eichler
5.Natural Resources and Mines/Energy, Cameron Friesen
6.Conservation and Water Stewardship, Steven Fletcher
7.Transportation and Public Works, Eileen Clarke
8.Children and Family Services/Human Resources and Housing, Ian Wishart
9.Education and Advanced Learning,  Wayne Ewasko
10.Health/Status of Women, Myrna Driedger
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal Relations, Scott Fielding
12.Justice and Public Safety/Labour and Immigration/Consumer Services Kelvin Goertzen

Not familiar enough with the party to know who the Government House Leader will be or who will be elected Speaker.

Pallister has said that he thinks most of the newly elected MLAs will need to get experience in the legislature before they should be considered for cabinet, so don't expect gender parity.  Also, the new P.C caucus consists of 32 men and 8 women.  Eileen Clarke is the only P.C woman elected in all of rural Manitoba, but I actually think she's likely to get into the cabinet because other than Reg Hewler who is MLA for a Brandon riding, and not a rural riding, the only other incumbent P.C in "Westman" is Cliff Cullen, and I think she'd make a better cabinet minister than him.  Also, Cliff Cullen's name is too similar to Cliff Claven from 'Cheers' and that guy was a total loser.  


The only other non incumbents are Steven Fletcher who was an M.P from 2004-2015 and a Minister of State for part of that time, and Scott Fielding who was a Winnipeg City Councillor and chair of its Finance Committee for a time (just like Greg Selinger was.)

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Myrna Driedger is going to be elected as the Speaker.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Brian Pallister
2.Finance/Deputy Premier, Heather Stefanson
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Colleen Mayer
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development/Northern Affairs Ralph Eichler
5.Natural Resources and Mines/Energy, Reg Hewler
6.Conservation and Water Stewardship, Steven Fletcher
7.Transportation and Public Works, Eileen Clarke
8.Children and Family Services/Human Resources and Housing, Ian Wishart
9.Education and Advanced Learning,  Cameron Friesen
10.Health/Status of Women, Cliff Graydon
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal Relations, Scott Fielding
12.Justice and Public Safety/Labour and Immigration/Consumer Services Kelvin Goertzen

Colleen Mayer was an executive assistant for a city councillor, a school trustee for the Louis-Riel School Division and Executive Director Old St Vital Improvement Zone.  She would also be the only cabinet minister for the traditional P.C area of Southern Winnipeg.

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Reg Hewler didn't get in the cabinet either and nor did the new MLA for Thompson.  Some speculated that the only P.C MLA from a northern riding would get in the cabinet.  

I predicted 7 of the 12 correct ministers (excluding Pallister) though only Ralph Eichler in the correct portfolio.

Heather Stefanson gets the Justice Ministry even though she is not a lawyer.  I think Pallister pulled a Cullen Clavin on that one.

From wiki:
Peter Wayner from InfoWorld defined "pulling a Clavin" as a reference to Cliff Clavin's wagering all his leading score and then losing all to a zero in the Final Jeopardy! round and as a tactic to avoid in Jeopardy![11] In the Jeopardy! fan community, the episode gave rise to what is known as "Clavin's Rule" (or "pulling a Cliff Clavin"), a rule of thumb that states that a player should not wager enough to endanger a "lock" or "runaway" game (one where the first-place player has more than twice the score of the second-place player), no matter how tempting the category.

Are those the full ministry titles?  If so, not only is there no longer a ministry of Transportation (presumably part of 'Infrastructure',)  there's no ministry of environment/conservation.

I guess that's part of the ministry of 'Sustainable Development' though that would be a huge ministry encompassing environment, natural resources, mines and energy, though I guess Manitoba Hydro is part of the Ministry of Crown Services.