Canadian by-elections, 2015

[136or142]

What is the point of the NDPQ right now, then? Pierre Ducasse is too important of an NDPer to be leading a dormant party, when he could be getting elected to the House of Commons right now, and possibly becoming a cabinet minister.

There are already something like 10 Quebec M.Ps in the shadow cabinet.  I'd tend to think they'd rank ahead of a new M.P in terms of getting a cabinet position.

These are the NDP M.Ps in Quebec I think will get in a prospective Mulcair cabinet:
1.Romeo Saganash
2.Hoang Mai
3.Francoise Boivin
4.Nycole Turmel (could also keep her position as chief whip)
5.Helene LeBlanc
6.Helene Laverdiere
7.Thomas Mulcair
8.Guy Caron


Romeo Saganash is the only one to not have an important job in the NDP caucus.  In addition to Nycole Turmel as Chief Whip, Helene LeBlanc is not a shadow critic but she is the only opposition member to chair a parliamentary committee (or one of two maybe.)  The others are all pretty senior critics.

My guess is Alexandre Boulerice is the most likely M.P I haven't mentioned that could also get in the cabinet.

Romeo Saganash is also the only NDP M.P who ran against Mulcair for leader that isn't in the shadow cabinet.

[136or142]

If the NDP formed government, the cabinet ministers they would appoint from Quebec would have to have some regional representation...i.e. someone from the Quebec City area, from the eastern townships etc..

I think Robert Aubin from Trois Rivieres could get something...not to mention some of the McGill students from 2011 who have really proven themselves, or someone like Philip Toone

Provincial regional concerns seem to be less of an issue for Federal cabinets.  Here in B.C, all the Conservative Ministers are from Greater Vancouver, even though, the Fraser Valley Part of Greater Vancouver aside, the strongest support base for the Conservative Party is in the Interior.

Similarly in Alberta, there are two ministers from Calgary (including Harper) and one from Edmonton, none from the smaller cities or the rural parts of the province.

Anyway
1.Romeo Saganash, Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou, Northern Quebec
2.Hoang Mai, Brossard-La Prairie, Montreal suburb
3.Françoise Boivin, Gatineau, Outaouais
4.Nycole Turmel, Hull-Aylmer, Outaouais
5.Hélène LeBlanc, LaSalle-Emard, West End Montreal
6.Hélène Laverdière, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Downtown Montreal (I thought it was in the East End)
7.Guy Caron, Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, Eastern Quebec, I believe in the Eastern Townships.

I don't know how much more diverse regionally this could be. I suppose one from the Outaouais could be left out, as I've already said that Nycole Turmel could be left as the Chief Whip.

I don't know who this Mendes is. If Mai does lose, I hope he's well Hoang

[136or142]

Doesn't really fit here, but I don't want to start a separate thread for provincial elections for this single post.

So far, the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP have nominated 9 of 40 candidates for the upcoming election.

The Saskatchewan NDP have nominated candidates in 36 of the 53 ridings not held by NDP incumbents (NDP MLA John Nilson is retiring having served from 1995-2016.)


The Manitoba NDP recently nominated their first non incumbent.  They've renominated three incumbents, ironically 2 of those three are former members of the 'gang of five' (Andrew Swan and Jennifer Howard.)

I don't know if that really is ironic, but it's at least ironic as Alanis Morissette understood 'ironic' to mean, don't cha think?

[136or142]

Two By-elections today:

Alberta = Calgary-Foothills (NDP and WR dogfight)
Ontario = Simcoe North (likely to easily go PC, but who will be second? the NDP has been polling much better since the election, but this is not traditional or relatively favourable NDP territory. The Anti-hydro privatization has been hit hard by the NDP, but is that enough to move them to second or even competitive to win? maybe and unlikely?)

In the 1990 Ontario election, there was no Simcoe North riding, but in the three Simcoe ridings, the NDP got around 37% of the vote in two of them, and won one of them.  So, that would be their semi recent high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1990

[136or142]

Oh goodness. John Turmel is running again.

[136or142]

Liberals look like a lock for second place.

Calgary-Foothills byelection returns here:
http://results.elections.ab.ca/11.htm

None so far.

[136or142]

First of 86 polls in Alberta reporting.

[136or142]

8 polls reporting now, NDP has won two of them.

[136or142]

NDP has won 7 of 19 polls.

[136or142]

Looks like it's more likely that P.Cs could finish second than NDP could finish first.

[136or142]

Second advance poll very bad news for the NDP.  Now more than 10% behind.

[136or142]

Good turnout for a by-election.

Final results now in.  The 3rd advance poll is just as bad for the NDP as the second advance poll.  NDP end up slightly more than 12% behind Wild Rose.

http://results.elections.ab.ca/11.htm

Hatman, the only thing I'd disagree with you on is that Hawkesworth was an obviously better candidate than the lawyer who ran in the general election.  While he did have years of political experience, he is also a 'career politician' and a carpetbagger.

He also didn't end his elected career prior to this on a good note, having run a very poor campaign for mayor of Calgary and taking some shots at now Mayor Nenshi.

[136or142]

Calgary-Foothills by election results and general election results:

By election results, total votes 12717
Wild Rose: 4,877
N.D.P: 3,270
P.C: 2,746
Liberal: 791
Alb: 610
Green: 377
Other: 46

General election 17,761
P.C: 7,163
NDP: 5,748
Wild Rose: 3,216
Liberal: 1,271
Green: 363

[136or142]

Hatman, the only thing I'd disagree with you on is that Hawkesworth was an obviously better candidate than the lawyer who ran in the general election.  While he did have years of political experience, he is also a 'career politician' and a carpetbagger.

He also didn't end his elected career prior to this on a good note, having run a very poor campaign for mayor of Calgary and taking some shots at now Mayor Nenshi.

And FWIW, he was a parachute in Foothills.

Yes, I said he was a carpetbagger. Isn't that the same thing?

[136or142]

Doesn't seem to have received much attention.  Provincial by election today in Carleton New Brunswick, to replace former P.C Leader and Premier David Alward.

NDP candidate is UNIFOR Local Vice President Greg Crouse, not Dominic Cardy.

[136or142]

The BC NDP should pick up Coquitlam-Burke Mountain pretty easily - they narrowed the gap in that seat from 2009 to 2013 and right now the Christy Clark government is scandal ridden, and extremely unpopular. Its typically easy for the opposition to gain a marginal government seat in a mid-term by-election...holding it in a general election can be another story - but if you want to send a message to the criminals running the BC government - a by-election protest vote is an easy gesture. In fact the only time the government has won a byelection in BC in the last 30 years was when Christy Clark very narrowly won Vancouver Point Grey right after she became Premier - and even that was much close than it should have been and she ended up losing that seat in the general election.

The fact that federal Conservative support crashed in that area of Vancouver is also  warning sign - the BC Liberal MLA ran for the joined at the hip federal Conservatives and was crushed. I'd be surprised if the Greens get more than their usual 3% of the vote in that area - in the federal election and in the last provincial election the Greens got low single digits throughout suburban Vancouver and they are as moribund as ever...meanwhile the BC NDP leads in every province -wide poll and their new leader John Horgan is very popular and a much bigger draw than his predecessor Adrian Dix was... He seems to be getting good press and is a real "HOAG" (helluva guy)

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn+palmer+horgan+takes+gloves+launches+sharp/11502840/story.html

I agree with this. Christy Clark also won the West Kelowna by election.

I'd like to see the Federal NDP candidate for this riding, Sara Norman, run provincially.  She had a decent showing and would have won were it not for the late Liberal surge.

[136or142]

It is very obvious that you don't live in BC!

BC NDP leader John Horgan receives very little press out here. And when he does it's due to his embarrassing "bozo eruptions" in the BC legislature requiring other BC NDP MLAs to hold him back.

Horgan is also a prolific letter writer to local newspapers in BC - and when he does it's typically letters of apology to the locals for making previous inaccurate and misleading statements to the locals.

Horgan is quick-tempered (cue the angry Tom meme) and "loses it" all the time. Just a few weeks ago, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer made detailed note of same in Horgan's confrontation with several major BC media reporters. "Go screw me" he said.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/vaughn+palmer+glimpse+prickly+side+john+horgan/11419169/story.html

Sorry. But Horgan is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off at a moment's notice. In politics, that is politically toxic. Never would have thought that anyone could make Adrian Dix "look good".

Even about a month ago, Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham threatened to quit the BC NDP caucus over BC Hydro's Site C dam, which BTW has major (82%) public support. And the NDP is opposed to natural gas development, LNG, other resource development, etc. Simply put, the BC NDP does not know what it stands for anymore. Again, it's drifting and moribund and basically has turned into a political train-wreck.

The BC NDP will likely see it's worst electoral showing in the 2017 BC election (aside from the 2001 debacle) since 1969.

BTW, during the recent fed election, most folk that I know voted Liberal here in BC - and these same folk view the NDP as politically toxic. Just not electable.

And then yesterday another major scandal broke out all over the news about prominent NDPers at Vancouver City Hall massively deleting all of their e-mails (Mayor's Chief of Staff Mike Magee for one). That finding was from an investigator of the BC Freedom of Information office.

Hell, even BC Green Party Andrew Weaver seems to be getting more press than BC NDP leader Horgan. And Weaver is seemingly more liked, respected, and credible as well. During the upcoming by-elections, the Greens, as the 3rd party will be the major beneficiaries in terms of popular vote share. No doubt about that.

PS. Over the past weekend, a well known soft-NDP supporter in BC ran a Twitter poll and was astounded that 85% want to see another party in BC akin to the centrist federal Liberals. Most of her followers and ones supporting that concept are also well known soft NDP supporters. Just shows how badly damaged the BC NDP brand is - notwithstanding that the fed NDP support in BC has collapsed to just 13% in today's Forum Research poll.

Hyper partisan B.S
1.John Horgan is in the media fairly regularly.  Maybe not so much the print media, but he often appears on talk shows on both the radio and tv.  He receives press coverage in the major dailies whenever the legislature is in session, which under Christy Clark, hasn't been all that often.

I don't know how much local press he receives.

2.Horgan has had one or two outbursts is the legislature.  It's certainly true he has a temper but he mostly keeps it under control. I'm also not sure that that is a big problem.  At a minimum Stephen Harper was reported to have a very bad temper and kept it in check with a smile that usually seemed far more forced than Mulcairs'.  (It says something about the Canadian media that some commentators would refer to Mulcair's smile as 'creepy' but never mentioned Harper's smile.  In my family and among my friends, we all found Harper's smile to be far more creepy.

In the U.S, it wasn't even a secret that Bill Clinton had a massive temper, although once he calmed down, he seemed to forget everything he had said and his staffers learned to just ignore his ranting.

3.I read the local papers regularly especially the letters to the editor, and I've never seen a letter from John Horgan, yet alone one from him apologizing for misstatements.  If this has happened it likely occurred no more than once.  This claim from lotuslander should be taken with a massive grain of salt given his/her obvious bias.

4.Christy Clark doesn't seem to have a temper problem, but she has the exact opposite problem. She seems to think she is funny and she has gotten into trouble for her allegedly humorous tweets far more than Horgan has gotten into trouble for his temper.  Of course, Clark definitely has a problem with honesty.    Horgan was event trying to soft peddle that at the convention.  He said straight up something like "Christy Clark is a liar who will say anything to get elected."

5.I highly doubt Site 'C' has 82% support.  If it ever did, that is certainly no longer the case once the official cost was released (officially over $9 billion. Once the standard 15% increase to public mega projects is added in, this goes over $10 billion)

6.There is no question the NDP is divided on LNG and resource development, but saying the NDP  opposes those things is an outright lie.

7.In regards to the poll, I would consider myself one of those people that would like a provincial wing of the Federal Liberal Party to run provincially.  A handful of defeated New Democrats basically acknowledged something similar to that when they said the provincial NDP and the Federal NDP should be split up.  That said, obviously a twitter poll isn't scientific and while 85% (if accurate) obviously suggests something real, it's debatable exactly how much.

[136or142]

I'd like to see the Federal NDP candidate for this riding, Sara Norman, run provincially.  She had a decent showing and would have won were it not for the late Liberal surge.

Huh? Norman in 3rd place with 27% and she would have won the riding? Most of the voters therein were Con<---> Lib switchers.

Sara Norman had a large lead in one of the riding polls a few weeks before the election.  To be sure, most of those riding polls weren't very accurate, but the poll was consistent with where the provincial numbers at the time.

I would also say that 'decent showing' is an accurate representation of 27% of the vote in a 3/4 way race.  She received 15,400 votes losing by about 4,500 and was 8% behind the winner.

I believe Lotuslander used to (and maybe still does) post on Eric Grenier's site, and he/she was one of the main reasons I quit his site.  I wrote an email to Grenier saying that while I certainly didn't expect him to know everything, there were comments on his website that were so obviously false that they should have been deleted.  Grenier seemed concerned about posts that violated 'nice' conduct (including my referring to another hyper partisan poster there who called himself B.C Voice of Reason as B.C Voice of (no) Reason), but when it came to accuracy and truthfulness, Grenier didn't seem to care in the slightest.

[136or142]

"Sorry, But that is hyper-partisan BS. Aren't you the same guy who resides in the Richmond and didn't even know that Queensborough is part of NW or something to that effect?"

Yes, of course, you left out that the reason you know that is because I disclosed it.  I live in East Richmond but not very close to New Westminster.  I knew that part of Lulu Island was not in Richmond but I did not know that was the part.  Were it not for the relatively new construction in the Hamilton area, I wouldn't even have had a reason to know that Queensborough exists.

3. "Horgan has gone to Prince Rupert, Kitimat, Prince George, Dawson Creek, etc. Has received negative local press about his local statements on natural gas fracking, natural gas development, LNG, natural gas pipelines, Site C dam, etc. After the fact, Horgan writes letters to the editor to all of these local papers "to correct" his previous statements. In my entire life in BC, have never seen anything akin to same. Just Google it up."

I googled it and can't find a single article on this.

4. "In terms of popularity/public perception, Horgan places 3rd after both CC and Andrew Weaver from all of the data that I have seen."

Christy Clark is likely in last place by a mile.

5. "BC hydro's Site C dam? 82% support/17% opposed from Abacus Data poll back in July.  67% support/18% opposed from NRG Research poll of last week."

The Abacus Data poll seems to have been paid for by B.C Hydro
https://www.bchydro.com/news/press_centre/news_releases/2015/site-c-poll.html

The NRG Research poll was paid for by the Independent Contractors and Business Association:
http://energeticcity.ca/article/news/2015/11/09/icba-president-says-opposition-stance-on-big-projects-not-shared-by-majority-of-bc

I certainly would not question the veracity of Abacus (I've never heard of NRG Research previously) but I also would not doubt they might ask leading questions.
http://www.alaskahighwaynews.ca/opinion/letters/site-c-poll-doesn-t-ask-the-right-questions-1.2003018

6. "Most of the BC NDP caucus is opposed to natural gas fracking, natural gas pipelines, LNG, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc. Totally on the outs with BC public opinion. In fact, the BC NDP opposed the Project Development Agreement in the BC legislature for the $36 billion Petronas LNG project in NW BC. Even today, the prez of Petronas in Kuala Lumpur stated that they are awaiting the CEAA final environment certification expected in late January for their go ahead."

The NDP voted in favor of some of the LNG legislation.  I believe I recall they voted against this project siting what they said was a poorly negotiated agreement. Given the market price of LNG and the large LNG developments already in Australia and the United States, I think this is a moot point anyway and I, and most energy market experts doubt there will be any B.C project to go ahead for at least the next decade.

"The optics of the BC NDP OPPOSING the Petronas Project Development Agreement will be brutal for the BC NDP during the 2017 election campaign. Welcome to BC's new political reality."

The optics of the NDP running ads showing Christy Clark's 'debt free B.C' bus will likely be even more brutal for the B.C Liberal Party, assuming Christy Clark is still leading the B.C Liberals by then.

"Just wait for the 2 by-election results next February."
I would expect the NDP to win both by elections handily.

[136or142]

I'd like to see the Federal NDP candidate for this riding, Sara Norman, run provincially.  She had a decent showing and would have won were it not for the late Liberal surge.

Huh? Norman in 3rd place with 27% and she would have won the riding? Most of the voters therein were Con<---> Lib switchers.

I believe Lotuslander used to (and maybe still does) post on Eric Grenier's site, and he/she was one of the main reasons I quit his site.  I wrote an email to Grenier saying that while I certainly didn't expect him to know everything, there were comments on his website that were so obviously false that they should have been deleted.  Grenier seemed concerned about posts that violated 'nice' conduct (including my referring to another hyper partisan poster there who called himself B.C Voice of Reason as B.C Voice of (no) Reason), but when it came to accuracy and truthfulness, Grenier didn't seem to care in the slightest.

Huh? I don't even bother to look at 308. Wayyyy better sites out there. Between you and DL... must be a full moon out there.

The same guys predicting a massive BC NDP landslide back in May, 2013 Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

OK, I confused you with somebody else.  I would apologize for that, but since you've confused me with somebody who made a prediction on the 2013 B.C provincial election, when I never did, I'd say we're even.

[136or142]

I would expect the NDP to win both by elections handily.

Sigh. With your other preceding comments... it never ceases to amaze me that folk fail to understand BC politics and dynamics thereto. I will leave it at that.

If you understand it so well, why do you need to post dubious polls or tell outright lies to make your point?

I've said numerous times I'm a Federal Liberal and I believe I've also said here a number of times that I'm not a fan of the Provincial NDP, for some of the reasons that you mentioned.  The hatred that the New Democrats on Babble show towards people who leave their 'tribe' as well as their attitude of moral superiority based on nothing, I find to be absolutely distasteful as well.  Before I got banned on Babble for calling out a complete moron there who I won't name (but his name rhymes with orth teport), I got into a fairly lengthy debate with some of them over how they felt they could justify their attitudes of superiority when the B.C NDP governments from 1991-2001 were every bit as corrupt as every other government ever elected in the province.

So, I am no fan of the NDP either.  That said, even though I despised the Conservatives under Stephen Harper and most right wing politics in general in Canada and the United States, I believe I've shown here I was loyal to truth and to right more than anything.  So, when I see attacks on the provincial NDP that are based on lies or half truths, as I've shown your comments to be, I am absolutely going to call you out on them.

If you want to make a bet on the upcoming Coquitlam-Burke Mountain by election, name your price.

[136or142]

If you understand it so well, why do you need to post dubious polls or tell outright lies to make your point?

Sorry buds. I have posted no dubious polls here. And 2 separate polls on BC Hydro's Site C dam corroborate each other. You are too enamoured with the BC NDP to consider otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sorry, but you are not in sync with BC public opinion. Period. I know that. You don't.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

$1,000 (with 10 brown ones). And we will have the moderator here act as intermediary. Deal?

1.How many times do I have to say I'm not a New Democrat?

2.Two dubious polls don't add up to one truthful poll.

3.Given that you said that you think John Horgan is in third in the favorable ratings when everybody who is in sync with B.C public opinion knows Christy Clark is literally hated by many British Columbians (and not just New Democrats) and is in almost certainly in a far distant third in the ratings (we just need a new poll to confirm this, but it's obvious from listening to CKNW, which is normally not exactly the most NDP friendly station that even many normally conservative types can't stand her flippant 'humor' or her governing by public relations style, it's clearly you who don't know anything about B.C public opinion.

4.I doubt the moderators here would endorse a bet, but I'm all for it.

[136or142]

That "North Report" idiot has made babble a toxic place.

Who is this "North Report?" I was referring to a poster there whose named rhymed with Orth Teport.

From my occasional trips back there, it seems many posters have quit Babble.  I don't know if he was the sole or even the main reason so many seem to have left, but I don't doubt he was one reason.

The moderators there can do what they like including banning me.  But, I admit that I resent that they banned me on what I consider to be rather dubious grounds while they leave that idiot to ruin the site (and also leave that almost certainly FSB disinformation agent Ikosmos alone.  So, the moderators at Babble have a problem with me for calling out Orth Teport but have no problem with posts from an individual who is almost certainly an agent of Vladimir Putin. I mean that literally as I've read that The FSB under Putin makes propaganda posts to virtually every western political discussion board, although I've never seen any here or on politicalwire.  Of course, it's possible that the moderators here and there wisely ban those would be posters.)

Anyway, my problems there should not be a topic of discussion here, beyond what I've already posted.

[136or142]

"I know well enough that Horgan is mocked and held in contempt by both BC NDPers and the voting public (those who know him). Basically "Tom Mulcair on steriods". Or the "anti-Justin Trudeau". All the relevant data is out there. Not rocket science."

Which is evident based on the 95% support Horgan received at the NDP convention held a few days ago.

[136or142]

How often do you see a major political party pick a new leader by acclamation? I can only think of when Mike Harcourt was acclaimed as leader of the BC NDP in the late 80s.

Roy Romanow in Saskatchewan and Michael Ignatieff by the Federal Liberals.