The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[136or142]

but will Sanders run as a Dem or an Indie. Obviously Hillary is hoping for the former.

definitely dem, no chance he'd run as an indie

Yeah, Sanders doesn't share the suicidal tendencies of many of his followers. He knows a Republican presidency would be disastrous for the country.

As a pathetic regular listener of the ridiculous program Coast to Coast I've heard Jesse Ventura lament a number of times how difficult it is for an independent presidential candidate to get ballot access in many states.  Ventura says he will run for president only if a 'serious grass roots movement gets me on the ballot in all 50 states'.

So, even if Sanders wanted to run as an independent he would have had to have started the leg work on it a long time ago.  I don't know if he knows this or not.

His only real options are to run in the Democratic Primary or run for one of the three small parties with ballot access in all 50 states - the Libertarian Party, the Constitution Party or the Green Party.  Of these, the only one that is a fit for him is obviously the Green Party.  However, before he got elected as an independent to the House he was associated with the Liberty Union Party of Vermont and never with the Green Party (although I'm not sure if the Green Party even existed at that time).

So, I don't know if the Green Party would accept him or if they'd regard him as an interloper.  The Green Party already has a candidate for the party's nomination, Jill Stein, a Massachusetts physician and the party's nominee in 2012 and the Massachusetts Green Party nominee for governor in 2002 and 2010.

[136or142]

Of the 25 potential Republican candidates I list as possibles for running for president, it looks like 4 are out.
1.Mike Pence, Indiana Governor, is pushing for the state to accept matching funds for Obamacare, not something somebody who wants to run for president as a Republican would do (unless they're John Kasich) Also, would be hurt by his bizarre attempt to set up a Pravda in his state.

2.Donald Trump, New York, Probably was never really serious.

3.Pete King, New York, U.S Representative, since announcing he was going to run over one year ago, he's done nothing in this direction since.

4.John Thune, South Dakota, U.S Senator, told Roll Call he plans to run for reelection to the senate.

This leaves
1.Mike Huckabee, Arkansas, former Governor
2.Carly Fiorina, formerly of California
3.Jeb Bush, Florida, former Governor
4.Rick Scott, Florida, Governor
5.Marco Rubio, Florida, U.S Senator
6.Rand Paul, Kentucky, U.S Senator
7.Bobby Jindal, Louisiana, Governor
8.Bob Erhlich, Maryland, former Governor
9.John Bolton, Maryland
10.Ben Carson, Maryland
11.Mitt Romney, Massachusetts, former Governor
12.Rick Snyder, Michigan, Governor
13.George Pataki, New York, former Governor
14.Chris Christie, New Jersey, former Governor
15.John Kasich, Ohio, Governor
16.Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania, former U.S Senator
17.Lindsey Graham, South Carolina, U.S Senator
18.Rick Perry, Texas, former Governor
19.Ted Cruz, Texas, U.S Senator
20.Jim Gilmore, Virginia, former Governor
21.Scott Walker, Wisconsin, Governor

[136or142]

This is how I would rank the likelihood of the Republican contenders to win the nomination

Top Tier
1.Mitt Romney
2.Jeb Bush
3.Scott Walker
4.Rand Paul
5.John Kasich
6.Ted Cruz
7.Mike Huckabee
8.Chris Christie
9.Ben Carson

and the rest... can stay on Gilligan's Island (in alphabetical order of their home state)
1.Carly Fiorina
2.Marco Rubio
3.Rick Scott
4.Bobby Jindal
5.John Bolten
6.Bob Erhlich
7.Rick Snyder
8.George Pataki
9.Rick Santorum
10.Lindsey Graham
11.Rick Perry
12.James Gilmore

Joke I just come up with that is unfortunately now dated.

The film Captain America: The Winter Soldier is proof of how poorly the American economy was performing in the summer of 2014 that even a super hero could only find seasonal work.

[136or142]

Daily Beast says Romney's running.

Welcome to the White House, Madame President.

He's running level with her according to the most recent poll...not that he has a good chance of beating her, but it's hardly going to increase her chances.

1.It's a Fox (Faux) News poll so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Other recent polls show Hillary Clinton defeating all potential Republican candidates by at least 10% though I don't recall if Mitt Romney was polled.

2.To the degree that Romney may have genuinely improved his standing, it would likely have just been the effect of the largely positive press he has received since stating he was interested in running again.

[136or142]

"Quote
Former Texas governor Rick Perry on Thursday will announce that he has recruited more than 80 major donors, including some of the biggest bundlers in Republican politics"

Should say: "including some of the biggest blunders..."