Canadian federal election - 2015

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Attack ad I'd like to see:
"When terrorism struck, Harper hid in a closet."

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Maria Manna was nominated by the Liberals today in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.

Maria Manna, Jazz and Blues Singer/Music Producer, Franchise Owner 4Pillars Debt Restructuring, Former Owner Maria Manna Etiquette & Finishing School, BFA (Hons) - Music, Diploma (Hons) - Political Science. Diploma - Cosmetology

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Weekend nomination roundup:
* North Vancouver, BC: The NDP nominated band councillor Carleen Thomas. Businessman John Wilkinson is the Liberal candidate and incumbent MP Andrew Saxton will be running for re-election for the Conservatives.

Jonathan Wilkinson is a former president of the Saskatchewan Young New Democrats and was an advisor to Roy Romanow.

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Two days before the Liberal nomination in my neighbouring riding of Richmond Centre and I still have no idea who the candidate(s) are.

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Another turncoat,  great.

He was a New Democrat 20 years ago.

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Two days before the Liberal nomination in my neighbouring riding of Richmond Centre and I still have no idea who the candidate(s) are.

Lawrence Woo will be acclaimed as the Liberal nominee tomorrow.

Lawrence Woo, Chartered Accountant and Treasurer and Vice Chair Institute of Chartered Accountants of B.C, Chair of SUCCESS Foundation Endowment Committee, Weekly Radio Talk Show Co-Host, Business In Vancouver Newspaper Editorial Board Member

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Today:
-Former Lorraine city councillor Ramez Ayoub will be the Liberal candidate in Therese-De Blainville, QC. Marc-Aurele-Fortin incumbent Alain Gigure will be running for the NDP and Hotel President Manuel Puga will be the Conservative candidate.
-Steven Kou emerged as the only candidate in a botched nomination for the Liberals in Vancouver Kingsway. They will not reveal who he is until after he has been nominated. The NDP's Don Davies is the incumbent and will be running again, while paralegal Jojo Quimpo will be the Cosnervative candidate.

In Vancouver-Kingsway, John Arthur Bolduc apparently dropped out for the nomination race some time ago.  Was Mary Pynenburg forced out to make way for Steven Kou or was she pressured to step down because some new information came out as to why she left her position as city planner in some interior community?  Or is it neither?

One poster on the Georgia Straight said that Steven Kou was a 'one percenter' , so he's likely this guy:
Steven Kou

President
Ekon Wealth Management Inc.
In 2010, summarizing and organizing his nearly-ten-year experience in the financial area, Mr. Kou wrote the first set of Chinese tax books in Canada. In a simple and easy-to-understand manner, the book discussed in detail all aspects of the Canadian tax law on immigration, house purchase, personal tax, establishing commerce and investment. In the same year, he was employed by Bank of Montreal (BMO) with a high salary to BMO's senior management team and became one of the executive directors of BMO and the first Chinese person in British Columbia assuming this duty so far. In order to concentrate on providing services for the Chinese immigrants in Canada better and comprehensively, he resigned from BMO at the end of 2011 and created his own company "Ekon Wealth Management Inc".

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Outside of the NDP in Quebec, all of whose M.Ps were new (except for Mulcair and former Liberal M.P Francoise Boivin) there has been hardly any switching.

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I believe former M.P Denis Paradis is the liberal candidate in Brome-Missisquoi.

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Tonight we have two nomination races:

In Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, QC, the NDP will acclaim their MP Francois Lapointe. He'll be running in a re-match against former Tory MP Bernard Genereux and Liberal Marie-Josee Normand. Lapointe won the riding by NINE votes in 2011.

The Liberals are seeing a contested race in the new Vancouver Island riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (pretty much a re-configured Esquimalt-Juan-de Fuca). Luke Krayenhoff takes on David Merner. The Tories just acclaimed Shari Lukens a former councillor in Colwood as their candidate. The Greens are running photographer Frances Litman.  The incumbent is NDPer Randall Garrison who will be running for re-election.   

Luke Krayenhoff is a business consultant and a former police officer, David Merner is a lawyer and former President of the Canada Liberal Party in British Columbia.  He also briefly ran in the 2012 leadership race.

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David Merner defeated Luke Krayenhoff for the Liberal Party nomination for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.

David Merner, Lawyer and B.C Minister of Justice Dispute Resolution Office Executive Director, Former President Liberal Party of Canada in British Columbia, 2012 Federal Leadership Candidate (Dropped out before the convention), B.A (Harvard)- , M.A(Oxford)-

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The Vancouver East NDP nomination in Vancouver East scheduled for today (11 AM to 3 PM) has  been cancelled.  Apparently there are no members of the NDP in the riding.  This may not be true

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Jenny Kwan won the nomination.

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My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

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"If I was the party, and I believe they do require by-elections to be female only contests if the MLA was a woman (I actually think it applied to male MLAs who were retiring as well no?), any rate, If i were the BCNDP i'd prefer a woman from the Chinese or Asian community; meaning Meena Wong or Niki Sharma jump to the top.
Is Wong thinking of running in Vancouver South again? she has gained much more notoriety since running for mayor, that would definitely help with some personal vote, but Van S is more Liberal/Tory of a battle even in 2011 (although it was competitive for all three). She would have a guaranteed (as close as you can to anyway) ticket to the Legislature if she were to run and win the nomination in Van-MP"

Meena Wong finished a distant third in Vancouver South in 2011 with around 23% of the vote.

She would be a decent candidate for the provincial NDP but there would undoubtedly be some friction with her having run for COPE in the 2014 municipal election against the NDP favored Vision Vancouver.

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Likely good news for the NDP in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.  The Liberal nominee will be Tim Tessier, a presumably previously unknown realtor.

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My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

My money is on Sharon Gregson, which you omitted. Gregson was going to run in the fed V-East NDP nomination contest until Elmore stepped in.

Good add, thanks I forgot her. 

My money though is either on Ellen Woodsworth, who was also interesting in running in Vancouver East until Jenny Kwan stepped in or Meena Wong.

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Interesting celebrity candidate: former CBC meteorologist Claire Martin running for the Greens in BC. Always liked her on air.

I miss her doing the weather. Such a cheerful person. Good star candidate for the Greens.

She's running in the riding of North Vancouver.

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I like this:

Cold Camembert with Tom Mulcair
Thursday, April 30, 2015 at 05:30 PM
Wascana Place in Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada
Join Tom Mulcair and your Regina federal NDP candidates for a reception at Wascana Place!

Date: Thursday, April 30

Time: 5:30 to 7:30 pm

Address: 2900 Wascana Drive

Ticket Cost: $50 and you

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Liberal "Red Book"? to be released in 16 hours.
https://www.liberal.ca/
https://www.liberal.ca/next-big-positive-step-for-fairness/

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Pianist, Entertainment Lawyer, Music Association Executive and Former Record Label Owner Bob D'Eith won the Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge NDP nomination today over Local Columnist and Retired Teacher Jack Emberly.

Bob D'Eith lost the 2013 Provincial NDP nomination in Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows to frequent (but always competitive) candidate CEP Local President Mike Bocking 81-45.

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Pianist, Entertainment Lawyer, Music Association Executive and Former Record Label Owner Bob D'Eith won the Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge NDP nomination today over Local Columnist and Retired Teacher Jack Emberly.

Bob D'Eith lost the 2013 Provincial NDP nomination in Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows to frequent (but always competitive) candidate CEP Local President Mike Bocking 81-45.

The amount of capital letters in that post is insanely high.

Not Using Capitals Is A Capital Crime In Canada.  This Law Is Especially Taken Seriously In Ottawa, Our Nation's Capital.

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Lawyer Edward Wong won the Liberal Party nomination in Vancouver East over Joanne Griffiths, the former wife of former Vancouver Canucks owner Arthur Griffiths.

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The Quebec numbers are what's striking. The results for all 4 parties in Quebec are in 2011 territory. Which means 50+ seats for the NDP there. The NDP vote is actually more efficient than the Liberal vote overall, so I think a tight NDP-Con race is slightly worse for Harper than a tight Lib-Con race.

BC and Ontario will decide if a CON majority is possible. If Conservatives get <40% in either it's not possible.

Recent Polling in BC has the NDP in the lead 35% vs 29% for the CPC (from what I recall, came out a day or so ago)

That is an Insight's West Poll. (Or Insight West)

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What's the likelihood of Saskatchewan eclipsing Alberta as the province with the highest Conservative popular vote share?

That's yet to happen in any poll, though. And if we were going to see it happen it would be now, but the Conservatives are still at the high 40's in AB and low 40's in SK.

Personally, I don't think it will happen. The effect of the ABNDP majority will to cause Liberals, not so Conservatives, to swing NDP. So the conservative vote will largely be unchanged.

Saskatchewan probably is the most philosophically conservative part of Canada now, except for maybe New Brunswick (the English speaking areas of New Brunswick anyway).  Saskatchewan was always socially conservative leaning, but now they tend to be economically conservative as well.  In regards to social conservatism, it was an NDP cabinet minister, Harry Van Mulligan, who tried in the early 1990s to make it illegal for  people to wear spandex in parks.