Canadian federal election - 2015

[Citizen Hats]

I doubt it. Bad optics, anyway.

You get the impression that that woman has any sense of optics?

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt it. Bad optics, anyway.

You get the impression that that woman has any sense of optics?

No, but the Liberals do. They'll stop her from running there.

[DL]

If the Liberals had any sense of "optics" they would not have touched Eve Adams with a 10 foot pole in the first place and they would not let her run ANYWHERE!

[Hatman 🍁]

Touche.

[lilTommy]

Thunder Bay Current River ward Councillor Andrew Foulds Is seeking the NDP nomination in Thunder Bay - Superior North

http://www.tbnewswatch.com/News/369493/Federal_run

The Councillor was also the NDP candidate in the last provincial election as well. He will face NDP-turned-Green MP Bruce Hyer and Liberal antipoverty activist Patty Hajdu (Liberals obviously actively trying to court the NDP vote). 

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals have the edge of course (Thunder Bay is a Liberal city), but don't fear any Green vote splits. Bruce Hyer is toast.

[DL]

I don't think anyone mentioned some noteworthy nomination outcomes this weekend:

In notionally NDP Ville-Marie-Sud ouest-Ile des soeurs - the NDP incumbent for Jeanne LeBer Tyrone Benskin (very much a low profile under-performer in caucus) was turfed for the NDP nomination by Allison Turner a very impressive international human rights lawyer. IMHO, the NDP has a far better chance fo holding that seat with her than with Benskin...she will also be helped by the fact that the Conservatives are running a local city councillor - he has zero chance of winning but whatever votes he gets will come right out of the hide of the liberal candidate Mark Miller a billionaire corproate lawyer and childhood friend of Justin Trudeau's.

In NDP held Hamilton Mountain, the retiring incumbent backed Bill Adamczyk who is a 60 something local union leader who previously lost provincially in 2007 and then  lost the provincial NDP nomination in 2011. The provincial MPP and many other luminaries backed Scott Duval a long time local city councillor who by all accounts has much more appeal to suburban Liberal/NDP swing voters. I think the NDP has a better chance of holding the seat with him.

In NDP held Windsor-Tecumseth - the NDP nomination went to local politician Cheryl Hardcastle

In Manicouagan there was a bit of an upset - Trudeau's handpicked candidate aboriginal leader Michele Audette lost to a local mayor of s small town - there are rumours Audette may switch to the NDP and seek a nomination elsewhere!

[Krago]

Here is a dramatic scene from the Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs NDP nomination meeting.  Tyrone Benskin is the guy on the right.

[adma]

Liberals have the edge of course (Thunder Bay is a Liberal city),

Provincially.   But provincial and federal patterns have long followed a different drummer (and I'm not really counting the Chretien era re Liberalism)

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe. But when I worked in Hyer's office, they would tell me about how Liberal Thunder Bay is compared to the rest of the riding. Also, in Northern Ontario the cities tend to be less NDP friendly than the rural areas. This can be seen federally and provincially.

[adma]

Maybe. But when I worked in Hyer's office, they would tell me about how Liberal Thunder Bay is compared to the rest of the riding. Also, in Northern Ontario the cities tend to be less NDP friendly than the rural areas. This can be seen federally and provincially.

Well, yes--consider the case of Sudbury vs Nickel Belt, historically speaking.  Which is a legacy of the NDP's years as a more squarely union-guided "lunchbucket" party, which got lots of mileage in resource-based Northern ridings.  By comparison, the cities had the nodes of whatever bit of "cosmopolitan middle class" the North could churn up, which worked to the "non-NDP's" favour.

To offer a rough equivalent, it'd be like Toronto surrounded by an archipelago of mini-Hamiltons or mini-Oshawas.  (Though it's blurrier in these days of the NDP aiming for a broader support base--and it's also worth noting that 2014's provincial Liberal support in the Thunder Bay seats tended to be more evenly urban-rural distributed than once might have been the case.)

[DL]

It should be noted the provincially the NDP has won both Thunder Bay seats off and on since 1963! In fact Port Arthur (now Thunder Bay-Superior) was NDP continuously from 1967 to 1995 and the federal Port Arthur/TB seat was NDP 1957-1965, 1984-1988 and then 2008-to the present (given that Hyer was elected as a New Democrat)...so I'm not where anyone gets this idea that its a "Liberal town"...looks to me more like a highly competitive place!

[lilTommy]

It should be noted the provincially the NDP has won both Thunder Bay seats off and on since 1963! In fact Port Arthur (now Thunder Bay-Superior) was NDP continuously from 1967 to 1995 and the federal Port Arthur/TB seat was NDP 1957-1965, 1984-1988 and then 2008-to the present (given that Hyer was elected as a New Democrat)...so I'm not where anyone gets this idea that its a "Liberal town"...looks to me more like a highly competitive place!

Its a good point to make that TB used to be competitive (and still is for the NDP), also if you include in the discussion that most of the rural area that is now in the TB riding's was in the old riding Lake Nipigon which was NDP for the riding's entire existence 67-99 it buoys the argument, also Rainy River which oddly enough was only held from 87-99. But Hatman's point is true now more then ever, the NDP does much better in the rural areas where the economy is based more on resources, working class jobs. But the cities (TB, Sudbury, SSM) are where you see the wealth, the professionals and the business sector thrive much more.

[adma]

Incidentally, the provincial Port Arthur seat was Liberal from 1987-90 (btw/Jim Foulds' retirement and the Rae landslide).

But Hatman's point is true now more then ever, the NDP does much better in the rural areas where the economy is based more on resources, working class jobs. But the cities (TB, Sudbury, SSM) are where you see the wealth, the professionals and the business sector thrive much more.

I'm not so sure about "more than ever"--indeed, re Sudbury proper, I'd counter-argue *less* than ever; remember that federally speaking, it was Liberal for *decades* before Glenn Thibault's upset victory in '08, and likewise the long string of provincial Bartolucci landslides came to an end this decade (and Thibault-as-byelection-Liberal-victor scarcely counts as "landslide").

As for SSM: I suspect it's more a matter of the federal NDP taking the seat for granted in 2011, and a David Orazietti "personal vote" thing provincially.

[trebor204]

Another Winnipeg Conservative MP won't be seeking re-election. Shelly Glover (St. Boniface) will be returning back to her previous job with Winnipeg City Police. The other MPs were Joy Smith, Kildonan - St Paul and Rod Bruinooge, Winnipeg South.
 

"While I am proud of this record and the time I spent in Ottawa, it is time to return to my previous life," said Glover.

"This past 18 months has been particularly difficult for me and my family as we have dealt with some very serious health issues while I was away from home. As their wife, mother and grandmother (with a second grandchild on the way), my family is very grateful that I am coming home."


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-conservative-mp-shelly-glover-won-t-be-seeking-re-election-1.3020830

Just yesterday she announced she treated for cancer last year.


(

[RogueBeaver]

Christian Paradis also retiring.

[Simfan34]

Trudeaumania will run out of steam before the elections, right?

[RogueBeaver]

It already has. Hell, Liberal MPs are already denigrating him anonymously to journalists - which we saw with Dion and Ignatieff.

[Hatman 🍁]

As long as the Liberals are in 2nd place, there is still a bit of Trudeaumania lingering.

[DC Al Fine]

It already has. Hell, Liberal MPs are already denigrating him anonymously to journalists - which we saw with Dion and Ignatieff.

Any guesses as to which Liberal MPs?

[RogueBeaver]

We can assume McKay is one of them, given "bozo."

[King of Kensington]

Federal prosecutor Emilie Taman, the daughter of Louise Arbour, is interested in seeking the NDP nomination in Ottawa-Vanier and is currently challenging a Public Service Commission decision that denied her permission to run.

http://www.canada.com/News/politics/Federal+prosecutor+fights+decision+keep+from+running+federal/10947472/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting celebrity candidate: former CBC meteorologist Claire Martin running for the Greens in BC. Always liked her on air.

[King of Kensington]

Olivia Chow planning a comeback?

https://twitter.com/AndrewCash/status/580743088286478336

Would Cash resign his seat for her, or would she run in Fort York?  If it's the latter - on the one hand she does have more recognition and profile in the riding.  On the other hand, the optics could be terrible: "I resigned my seat last year but since my candidate didn't win and I bombed in my run for mayor, I want my old seat back." 

It would difficult for her to win Fort York against Vaughan, and it'll likely be an ugly, bitter grudge match. 

[DL]

I think there is zero chance Olivia chow wants to get back into federal politics this year...I think Cash is just having fun playing mind games with Adam Vaughan. Apparently Vaughan is freaked out by the idea that Chow might oppose him and so the NDP is obliging by keeping the rumor mill going...but it won't happen