Tony Blair stays on Labour Leader till 2010

[Clyde1998]

Dumping the May 2007, the month Blair resigned, polling average (Con 36.3; Lab 32.8; Lib 18.4) into the Electoral Calculus website puts Labour fifteen seats short of a majority.

Lab - 309 (-47)
Con - 258 (+60)
Lib - 47 (-15)
Nat - 11 (+2)
Oth - 3
NIR - 18

Labour only stop being the largest party, in terms of seats, when the Conservatives are roughly 6% ahead. I think that the Conservatives would have formed the Government if Blair had stayed on until 2010, although I'm not certain that it would've been a majority - given the size of Labour's majority in 2005.

Realistically, I don't know how much the Iraq War could've been played by the Conservatives if Blair had remained as PM - given that they voted for it as well. Although, the SNP could've performed better with Blair running in 2010, given that the SNP would have been able to play the Iraq War card - as they opposed the war.

Looking ahead, it would be likely that Brown would've still followed Blair as Labour leader. This would help prevent the SNP majority in Holyrood in 2011, as Brown would've had to play a more active role in that election, and if the Independence Referendum had still taken place, Brown would've been a much more credible leader for the No side than Alistair Darling (or David Cameron). This would've helped keep the support for independence down - reducing, or preventing, the SNP surge in 2015. Additionally, Brown could've potentially been more credible than Miliband and won the 2015 election for Labour, most likely requiring the support of other parties, however.

Had the Conservatives gone into coalition with the Lib Dems, as actually happened, than the Lib Dems would still most likely in the situation they are in now. Otherwise with a Conservative majority, the Lib Dems would, in my view, have formed a coalition with Labour in 2015. I think the would've been much more tolerable with Lib Dem voters than the coalition with the Tories, given that a large number of their voters are left leaning. This situation would keep the Lib Dems as the third party in the UK.