Most populous county to vote Republican

[Roronoa D. Law]

My gut tells me Miami-Dade is flipping this year even if Biden wins again.

Especially if Democrats put very little money into the state, as I am hoping they don't. It's a money pit and has not been an essential part of the Democrats' path to 270 for over 20 years. I usually hate "triaging" but in Florida's case it's worth it next year.

Didn’t Miami-Dade vote for Clinton by, like, 30 points?

A 30 point swing in an urban county towards Republicans over 8 years? Not happening.

It swung over 20 points towards Republicans in 4 years.

Still, a county that’s majority immigrant and only 13% non-Hispanic white? Just seems so counter intuitive.

 From what I heard Miami follows Spanish colonial racial dynamics. So it relatively low non-hispanic white population has allowed lighter skin Hispanic to fill the void of the majority class.

[Roronoa D. Law]

No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

Republicans have fallen behind in a lot of large metropolitan areas and I think that problem will persist whether Trump is the nominee or not. So with current coalition Democrats are favored to win the PV in any competitive election. If a Republican is winning the PV then they already well pass 300+ EV. I also dont see a Republican winning the EV and losing PV happening at all unless we see some strange realingment.

[Roronoa D. Law]

No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

Republicans have fallen behind in a lot of large metropolitan areas and I think that problem will persist whether Trump is the nominee or not. So with current coalition Democrats are favored to win the PV in any competitive election. If a Republican is winning the PV then they already well pass 300+ EV. I also dont see a Republican winning the EV and losing PV happening at all unless we see some strange realingment.

I feel you are suffering from a recency bias in your assumption that it is nearly impossible that a Republican could win the popular vote in any competitive election. This is especially the case considering the apparent trends in the 2022 midterm results where Republicans dramatically over performed in NY, CA, FL, TX, etc., largely due to massive gains with Hispanics, Asians, and suburbanites in both Safe Blue States and the Sun Belt. I also feel that with these 2022 results and trends in consideration, combined with many polls showing Trump (and Desantis) beating Biden in the popular vote while simultaneously narrowly losing the swing states (particularly the three Rust Belt States of PA, MI, and WI), it is more likely then many think that Trump could lose the electoral college while winning the popular vote, something that no Republican has ever done, and was completely unthinkable until last year (Republicans nearly lost the House while winning the National House Vote), though it nearly happened in 2004 (ironically, the last time Republicans were making big gains with Hispanics and Asians).

I wouldnt say the results of the 2022 election is indicator of massive gains among minorites for the Republicans. Especially when one of the main reason Republicans did so well in NY, CA, and TX is because of huge drop in turnout in a lot of these minority. I mean Hochul got less votes than Trump and crazy enoguh Desantis got less than Biden. But to say GOP are some how favored to win PV over the EC college because they came close in some safe blue states is not realizing that GOP had the turnout advantage and better electorate last year. They will not get that in 2024 and I bet Biden wins the PV even if he loses the EC.