rough 2040 electoral map

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The Democratic black ceiling appears to be a figure well over ninety percent which really isn't much of a ceiling at all. Future voting trends will probably be even more racially polarized, it just depends on how hard the parties can pander.

There's huge differences between whites and blacks in American politics.

Whites are never going to be such a minority that they're 13 to 15% of the population, nor are they going to vote for the GOP in such huge margins as Hispanics currently do Democrats.  And the reason is that there's no real unified "white vote" or "white issues" that can be pandered to. How are you going to pander to a liberal white professional and a conservative white farmer? What do they have in common other than not being a minority?

And that's the problem I see with the idea that whites are going to vote 70% or 75% Republican. Far more likely is that Republicans improve their numbers amongst Hispanics, which would completely solidify Texas and Arizona.

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

Hispanics, as a whole, tend to be on the lower end of the economic ladder, and thusly more Democratic. The 30% of Hispanics that Republicans do get though are usually the wealthier (i.e. doctors) or more conservative (older Cubans) ones.

Hispanics only vote the way they do largely because, for the vast majority of them, their economic interests align with the Democratic party. As they become more assimilated, more will become either Republican or upper Middle Class Democrats.

[YaBoyNY]

You're telling me both tea party and establishment Republicans using thinly coded fearmongering about "non-English speakers" flooding over the border taking good 'ole American jobs has nothing to do with Latinos voting for the Democratic Party? Well, thanks for clearing that up for me.

It plays a role, but not as much as economics do.

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

Hispanics, as a whole, tend to be on the lower end of the economic ladder, and thusly more Democratic. The 30% of Hispanics that Republicans do get though are usually the wealthier (i.e. doctors) or more conservative (older Cubans) ones.

Hispanics only vote the way they do largely because, for the vast majority of them, their economic interests align with the Democratic party. As they become more assimilated, more will become either Republican or upper Middle Class Democrats.

Youre correct and that is why Amnesty is suicide for the GOP.

My favorite moron open border C of C GOP argument is that hispancs are socially conservative and thus will vote GOP. Well guess what?? Blacks are more socially conservative than whites and they NEVER vote GOP

Well, to be fair, the blacks have important historical social reasons for why they vote Democratic.

That doesn't exist amongst Hispanics. Similar to how groups like Catholics used to be near universally Dem, but are now much more even. African Americans have a huge difference between them and the immigrant groups who enter the country.

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The ceiling isnt fixed. In the 1930s the ceiling of the white vote for the GOP was less than 45%. Today it is likely 20 points higher. It changes overtime.

Right, but not to 70 or 75%. It's been steady at 50 - 65% for decades now.

[YaBoyNY]

50-65% is quite a range. The share of the white vote going to the GOP has been slowly rising for at least 10 years. I know it is frightening to you but the white vote will be as GOP as hispanics are Dem. 70-75% by 2030.

What's frightening? That you're telling me that something is a fact even though we're 15 years out? It's frightening that you actually buy into this nonsense, yes, but I've already explained why the white vote is not the same as the Hispanic vote.

So, the share of the white vote for the GOP has been 55 - 59% since 2000. Between 2004 and 2008 is actually decreased. But don't let facts get in the way of the talking point you've got going there.

[YaBoyNY]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

[YaBoyNY]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

"Some conservatives" isn't a source, nor is you saying they were "likely" Dems.

Also, IRT 2012 campaign: That's a statement. Not an argument.

Booing God and Israel:
1. Doesn't happen as a sanctioned thing even if there are instances of it.
2. You're really mistaken if you think this influences many voters who aren't already Republican.
3. Just a simple lol at the idea that they boo God. lol

[YaBoyNY]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

I disagree with this. There's nothing that the parties are supposed to be. Everybody has a place in each party.

Except racists and bigots, they can bugger off.

[YaBoyNY]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

We dont need you in the GOP

Yeah you do.

Unless you want the GOP to be locked out of the EC permanently.

[YaBoyNY]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

We dont need you in the GOP

Yeah you do.

Unless you want the GOP to be locked out of the EC permanently.

Rovckefeller GOPers add nothing and are nonplayers in states like VA, CO, FL and OH. Who cares about CT, NY and RI?

Moderate GOPers certainly add in places like VA and CO, but also in NH and the Upper Midwest.

You can't have the party just be dominated by small-minded idiots forever. It'll collapse.