Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump: 46%
DeSantis: 27%
Haley: 20%
Vivek: 6%
Other: 1%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump under 50%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

I mean Casey has been Ron's defacto Chief of Staff(some even say they are basically Co Governors) and also if she has political ambitions its not hard to see her try to become governor in 2026.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

He predicted Biden would win FL :


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410005.msg7721501#msg7721501

He also said Biden had a better chance of winning a landslide than Trump had of winning

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409640.msg7718459#msg7718459

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

He predicted Biden would win FL :


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410005.msg7721501#msg7721501

He also said Biden had a better chance of winning a landslide than Trump had of winning

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409640.msg7718459#msg7718459

You all are really obsessed with me lmao. Didn't realize that predicting one election wrong means you can't be right ever again! I guess all of you are constantly correct all the time. Must be nice!

We aren’t as arrogant in our predictions

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here is an crazy stat that shows you how much more non religious the nation is getting. In 2016 about 36% of Iowa GOP caucus goers were non-evangelical and now that number is up to 46%