When will Texas turn blue

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.

GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.


Here:


https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437

Cobb County :

2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%

Forsyth County:

2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%

Gwinnett County:

2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%

Henry County:

2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.

GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.


Here:


https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437
Cobb County :

2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%

Forsyth County:

2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%

Gwinnett County:

2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%

Henry County:

2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%

Are Asians counted as "Other/Unknown" here? Because Forsyth County has a sizable Asian population, attracted in part due to the perceived quality of the area's public schools.

Not sure but the point is a huge reason GA is flipping is due to "reverse Great migration" while Hispanic voters in Texas are moving right not left so demographic changes dont help Democrats in TX like GA as much

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway I don’t think Texas will turn blue but I sort of think it will be where FL was from 96-16 where it’s a Republican tilting battleground state but democrats win it in good years for them .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas won't turn blue for at least 20 years. The next stage in its development is to turn purple, and it will stay that way for the next 20 years. Purple as in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI.

Texas is closer now than Arizona and Georgia were at the start of the 2010 decade. It’s only a matter of time, provided Democrats actually try. 95% of the growth happening in Texas is in blue counties or counties that are zooming left like Collin County and Denton County. I think the writing is on the wall.

Look at my tweet and you will see why the GA comparison isnt really accurate. Also another thing too keep in mind for TX/AZ is much of the trend since 2012 happened in 2016 and has slowed down significantly since then

TX in 2012 voted 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2016 voted 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2020 voted 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

AZ in 2012 voted 13 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2016 voted 5.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2020 voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


The 2016 election is when a huge amount of college educated whites trended hard to the Democrats due to the Trump nomination but as you can see most of the trends happened from 12 to 16. So unless you expect another election which semi realigns the coalitions, then TX isn't really a good comparison to early 2010s AZ here.  Also something people miss about TX is it is not the rural areas that really is keeping the state Republican but the exurban areas and those areas are growing a good deal too.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas won't turn blue for at least 20 years. The next stage in its development is to turn purple, and it will stay that way for the next 20 years. Purple as in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI.

Texas is closer now than Arizona and Georgia were at the start of the 2010 decade. It’s only a matter of time, provided Democrats actually try. 95% of the growth happening in Texas is in blue counties or counties that are zooming left like Collin County and Denton County. I think the writing is on the wall.

Look at my tweet and you will see why the GA comparison isnt really accurate. Also another thing too keep in mind for TX/AZ is much of the trend since 2012 happened in 2016 and has slowed down significantly since then

TX in 2012 voted 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2016 voted 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2020 voted 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

AZ in 2012 voted 13 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2016 voted 5.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2020 voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


The 2016 election is when a huge amount of college educated whites trended hard to the Democrats due to the Trump nomination but as you can see most of the trends happened from 12 to 16. So unless you expect another election which semi realigns the coalitions, then TX isn't really a good comparison to early 2010s AZ here.  Also something people miss about TX is it is not the rural areas that really is keeping the state Republican but the exurban areas and those areas are growing a good deal too.

Unless the Texas metro areas suddenly stop growing, I think that argument is grounded in copium/hopium, really. I don't see why Republicans would expect to hold on forever as places like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio and their suburbs are getting ever bigger and consequently more blue as a result. There will come a time when Republicans don't have anywhere else to make up for those deficits. The Rio Grande Valley was a temporary gauze on the bleed for sure, but there's not many votes in that region compared to the whole of Texas. I don't see why Republicans would suddenly start doing better in the cities unless it was part of a national trend. Because like I said, 95% of all the growth in Texas is happening in counties that are solidly blue already, or are heading that way (Collin and Denton).

Trump was able to sustain a 270,000 vote deficit out of Travis County and a nearly 300,000 vote deficit out of Dallas in 2020, sure. Will Republicans be able to sustain a 500,000 vote deficit out of Travis County or Dallas County respectively later in the decade? Or lose Tarrant County by 100,000 votes? You can see how quickly the statewide map begins to crumble under the sheer volume of those numbers.

1. This is actually showing the trend line and the fact is TX did not trend much D from 2016-2020. Also the reason for that small trend was not the RGV but the fact that Houston Area Hispanics trended Republican as well, its just that RGV shows it on the county level. So Houston Area trends are not really that favorable to democrats and they need it to be to turn TX blue. Now they can turn Texas purple without it but blue is different

2. Also no 95% of the growth are not in democratic areas, as again a lot of the growth is in the Texas exurbs. A lot of those green counties are solidly R exurbs that provide Republicans with a lot of margins so yes while Texas will continue to Trend D, these trends point to a purple TX in the 2030s.



Source: https://demographics.texas.gov/Infographics/2021/RedistrictingCounty


3. Keep in mind a lot of the GOP losses in this decade were a lot of Republicans switching over to the Democrats in 2016. Like if you go back to 2000 you can see the trend except 2012-2016 has been steady

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

As you can see by growth trends Texas with the exception of 2012-2016 has been trending pretty slowly Democratic which tells you much of the 2012-2016 was a whole bunch of voters flipping from R to D rather than due to just changing demographics/growth trends

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas won't turn blue for at least 20 years. The next stage in its development is to turn purple, and it will stay that way for the next 20 years. Purple as in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI.

Texas is closer now than Arizona and Georgia were at the start of the 2010 decade. It’s only a matter of time, provided Democrats actually try. 95% of the growth happening in Texas is in blue counties or counties that are zooming left like Collin County and Denton County. I think the writing is on the wall.

Look at my tweet and you will see why the GA comparison isnt really accurate. Also another thing too keep in mind for TX/AZ is much of the trend since 2012 happened in 2016 and has slowed down significantly since then

TX in 2012 voted 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2016 voted 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2020 voted 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

AZ in 2012 voted 13 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2016 voted 5.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2020 voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


The 2016 election is when a huge amount of college educated whites trended hard to the Democrats due to the Trump nomination but as you can see most of the trends happened from 12 to 16. So unless you expect another election which semi realigns the coalitions, then TX isn't really a good comparison to early 2010s AZ here.  Also something people miss about TX is it is not the rural areas that really is keeping the state Republican but the exurban areas and those areas are growing a good deal too.

Unless the Texas metro areas suddenly stop growing, I think that argument is grounded in copium/hopium, really. I don't see why Republicans would expect to hold on forever as places like Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio and their suburbs are getting ever bigger and consequently more blue as a result. There will come a time when Republicans don't have anywhere else to make up for those deficits. The Rio Grande Valley was a temporary gauze on the bleed for sure, but there's not many votes in that region compared to the whole of Texas. I don't see why Republicans would suddenly start doing better in the cities unless it was part of a national trend. Because like I said, 95% of all the growth in Texas is happening in counties that are solidly blue already, or are heading that way (Collin and Denton).

Trump was able to sustain a 270,000 vote deficit out of Travis County and a nearly 300,000 vote deficit out of Dallas in 2020, sure. Will Republicans be able to sustain a 500,000 vote deficit out of Travis County or Dallas County respectively later in the decade? Or lose Tarrant County by 100,000 votes? You can see how quickly the statewide map begins to crumble under the sheer volume of those numbers.

1. This is actually showing the trend line and the fact is TX did not trend much D from 2016-2020. Also the reason for that small trend was not the RGV but the fact that Houston Area Hispanics trended Republican as well, its just that RGV shows it on the county level. So Houston Area trends are not really that favorable to democrats and they need it to be to turn TX blue. Now they can turn Texas purple without it but blue is different

2. Also no 95% of the growth are not in democratic areas, as again a lot of the growth is in the Texas exurbs. A lot of those green counties are solidly R exurbs that provide Republicans with a lot of margins so yes while Texas will continue to Trend D, these trends point to a purple TX in the 2030s.



Source: https://demographics.texas.gov/Infographics/2021/RedistrictingCounty


3. Keep in mind a lot of the GOP losses in this decade were a lot of Republicans switching over to the Democrats in 2016. Like if you go back to 2000 you can see the trend except 2012-2016 has been steady

2000: 22 points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2004: 21 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2008: 19 Points more Republican than the Nation as a whole
2012: 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2016: 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2020 : 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

As you can see by growth trends Texas with the exception of 2012-2016 has been trending pretty slowly Democratic which tells you much of the 2012-2016 was a whole bunch of voters flipping from R to D rather than due to just changing demographics/growth trends

I don’t want to do this draining back and forth over something I’m not too passionate about, but it’s simple math: even as Harris County gets bigger and say it remains stagnant at a low double digit Democrat margin, that’s still netting tens of thousands of votes on its own every cycle as it gets bigger. And also, all the exurban areas that you cited as proof against my 95% comment: those exurban counties are also swinging blue too. Coral County, Guadalupe County, Rockwall County and Bell County all got bluer.

They are still swinging red in terms of how much they net the GOP and also I cited the trends and really the way it’s going right now shows a purple Texas in the 2030s not a blue one .

TX other than 2012 to 2016 has not had a cycle where it has trended massively blue which shows growth isn’t actually pushing it as Dem as you think .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes, a purple Texas. Not a solidly blue one unless Democrats start getting 2/3 of the vote in places like Harris and DFW (which I don’t think is necessarily out of the question in the four core counties that make up the latter by the end of the decade). Democrats should have enough votes in the places they need to have at least one major statewide win by the end of this decade is my point. Probably beating Ted Cruz in 2024 or 2030 is my guess.

For my DFW point, I fear you underestimate the bloodbath that is coming this decade from places like Collin County and Denton County flipping. And we haven’t seen Democrats peak in Tarrant yet either.

I think Dems will start occasionally picking up a statewide win here or there by the end of the decade. Unlike GA though, I think the GOP has a very viable path to keeping Texas competitive and maybe even swing it back their way in the far distant future. I think one could make a case (assuming current trends continue) that the GOP has a higher ceiling with hispanics than Dems do with whites, mostly due to education divide. Non College hispanics are a much much higher percentage of the hispanic vote than college educated whites are of the white vote. White voters are also rapidly declining as a share of the population while latino voters of all types are the fastest growing demographic. There's also the factor that out of state whites moving in have also tended to lean R based on surveys I've seen. Collin and Denton are very likely gone long term for Rs because of the high income voters there, Tarrant I think will be moderately gone short term but Rs have future upside with hispanics and Tarrant overall is much more working class than Collin, Denton or Dallas. Harris and Bexar also have long term hispanic upside for Rs along with the RGV. If hispanic voters never eventually flip though, the TX GOP is pretty much done in a decade's time.

Another thing to consider and I have been beating this drum: If Hispanics no longer deliver for Democrats, they will simply look to peel more off of the WWC. This is what the Howard Dean 50 state strategy was about after it looked like after the 2004 election that relying on Hispanic voters wasn't delivering (they either stay home or vote Republican). It was eventually shelved when Hispanics "came home" in the Obama years.

 If Hispanics become that problematic for Democrats, they will be given space to triangulate on some of the issues that have made less-educated but also less-religious suburban and rural white vote more Republican. Ala the Danish Soc Dems or better yet, when Bill Clinton did his Sista Soulja thing  when he won back enough Reagan (but not Nixon) Democrats by emphasizing a shift in resources from combating extreme poverty to fighting violent crime. A cop on every corner. The era of Big Government is over. Et cetera. Et cetera.

Either Polis, Whitmer, Warnock, Fetterman, or Shapiro can say, in 2028 or 2032, "Not everyone who wants to come here should stay here", "were not a racist country", and "there is other ways we can help oppressed and endangered people other than moving them here".

That's the route they should take either way in my personal opinion. I would be a solid D voter instead of a lean D voter.

Are there any Republicans you would consider voting for president in 2024