Argentina 2023 election

[OSR stands with Israel]

My guess is I would be a :

Bullrich voter in R1 and Milei in R2

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm reminded of America 2016 (not to be that American) in that while I do not love the candidates I'd support, I will vigorously support them because decency and fighting the forces of reaction are the most important thing.

Hopefully Bullrich voters will show some sense and reject the abyss that is right-wing libertarianism/minarchism. And that's putting Milei's other eccentricities aside.

Clinton>> Massa

[OSR stands with Israel]

Peronists get wrecked !!!

[OSR stands with Israel]

I read that unofficial exit polls have Milei up by 2-5%.

This guy would be an epic disaster... hopefully this won't come true. Not that Massa is so great, but the far lesser evil.

Libertarianism > Peronism

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't care if Milei is "entertaining," right wing populism is never worth that.

On the bright side, I expect buyer's remorse very soon.

I'm kind of getting vibes of last year's presidential election in South Korea, albeit much less close.

Milei isn’t a populist lol as he’s pretty much Thatcher on steroids.

 https://www.cato.org/blog/mileis-remarkable-victory-argentina-paves-way-dollar-zone

As you can see Miliei literally wants to :

- remove all protectionist trade barriers

- remove all price and wage controls

- Dollarize their economy

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's interesting that Milei is running as populist when he's apparently proposed replacing the Argentine Peso with the U.S dollar.

Either he and his supporters don't understand the consequences of this, or he's an IMF plant masquerading as a populist. (I'm sure the reason he's proposing this is due to the high inflation in Argentina, but he must not understand how anti populist the far reaching consequences would be.)

The consequences of Argentina adopting the U.S dollar is that it would take control of monetary policy (the ability to print money) away from Argentina and it would severly limit the ability of the Argentine government to engage in deficit spending, the lifeblood of any populist government as Argentina would no longer be able to raise interest rates to combat inflation.

Finally, the need for U.S currency would require the Argentine government to drop its protectionist economic policies and open up to free trade.

If he won and actually adopted the U.S dollar as the Argentine currency it might actually result in Argentina becoming a successful economy that it first started to abandon over 100 years ago now and is certainly the most 'anti populist' thing any Argentine leader could do.

He apparently wants to unilaterally remove all protectionist trade barriers

A free‐​market economist, the president elect understands that price and currency controls must be done away with, as is the case with all taxes on exports. Milei has even suggested that he will get rid of Argentina’s barriers to global trade unilaterally, a radical and necessary volte‐​face after eight decades of protectionist failure.

https://www.cato.org/blog/mileis-remarkable-victory-argentina-paves-way-dollar-zone

[OSR stands with Israel]

If anyone still had doubts about Trump being elected again in 2024, these Argentina results are their wake-up call.

LOL, this is like saying because Labor is likely to win a landslide in the next election, Biden is also poised to win by in a blowout. Or Milei will be a 1-termer because Bolsonaro also lost (though only if Kirchner runs again). Stop trying to use international elections under vastly different circumstances as indicator to predict US elections (and vice versa).

It’s exactly because I am looking at the US specific context alongside these results that I’m saying this. Don’t act like it’s simply based on a foreign space vacuum.

Countries don't vote alike all the same, and Argentina's political realities are vastly different from the US. We don't have like 140% inflation and a long-time governing party with many corruption scandals etc.

The main issue is it’s just not in Argentina but rather you are seeing incumbent parties getting thrown out of office all across the world . In the past 18 Months you have seen incumbents in Australia, Brazil , Italy , Finland , New Zealand , Poland and right now the Canadian Libs , UK Tories and German SDP are polling at disastrous levels . The fact is the mood across the vast majority of world (especially Western World and Latin America) is anti incumbency and it’s why Biden is not polling well either . 

Now you can argue there are reasons why the US may buck the trend : things aren’t as bad here as they are in other nations, Dobbs backlash , Republicans not nominating a fresh face but someone who was just an incumbent 4 years ago , and Republicans nominating someone who likely will be convicted of serious charges . Now you can argue these reasons are why the US will buck the world wide trend in throwing the incumbent party out but you can’t argue there is an anti incumbent trend worldwide in general . Now I think Biden will buck it but only because of all those factors I just mentioned together but it will take all those factors together for Biden to have bucked it .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Best Case scenario imo is Milei another Thatcher while worst case scenario is he’s another Yeltsin

[OSR stands with Israel]

What was so appealing about him?  He seems like a libertarian and always thought libertarianism only benefits very wealthy in society while bad for everyone else?

Argentina has 143% inflation. Massa, the candidate who Milei was running against, has been economy minister for the past year and a half as inflation has surged. Massa spent $8 billion handing out goodies to voters in advance of the election, and notably promised to abolish taxation entirely, while also scaling up such goodies and expanding welfare and handouts in general. He's the latest of the Peronists who have spent decades running Argentina into the ground, and the voters finally decided they'd had enough.

I get why people wanted Massa out, but why not vote for Bullrich who would move away from Peronism but not go for something crazy like libertarianism.

Bullrich is a neoliberal who is perceived as the candidate for rich people. Most of Argentina is poor.

Milei will be even worse for poor as he basically wants to gut government and pretty tough to help poor if you gut government.

I mean the entire point of Shock Therapy is despite the fact that it increases pain in the short run, it greatly benefits the nation in the long run.