2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

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Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

or even 3 days ago

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Based on what's out I'd bet on Dolan honestly.

Isnt Hamilton supposed to be Vance's area

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Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

or even 3 days ago

Trumps Endorsement of Vance was supposed to give Vance an Early Vote Boost BUT he's only up 3 Points. So much for that Trump Endorsement.

And there is one guy who will be pretty happy if Dolan wins and that is former NC Governor McCrory seeing what's unfolding in Ohio.

Yah Vance isnt anywhere near the strong candidate as he seems on paper.

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I think this race is Likely Vance at this moment

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Hopefully Bob Tiernan wins the primary for Governor though I wouldnt mind Bob Pierce too. Drazen imo would be a bad candidate as she is way to robotic and Pulliam would be a disaster

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Hopefully Bob Tiernan wins the primary for Governor though I wouldnt mind Bob Pierce too. Drazen imo would be a bad candidate as she is way to robotic and Pulliam would be a disaster

Didn't you say you'd back Drazan after Pierce said he'd look into expanding the OHP?

That was before the debate though where Drazen came off as extremely robotic . Here’s how I’d describe the 4 candidates actually

Bud Pierce: He is running like a Mark Hatfield style Republican and is open to even working with Democrats on creating a public option in the state. He also believes we should invest in natural resources to help improve rural Oregon.

https://budpierce.org/issues/

Bob Tiernan: He is pretty similar to Bud Pierce on issues such as housing/law and order/education but opposes a public option and is mainly running on improving competency in the different agencies in Oregon and generally has the most detailed platform by far on what he would do to help solve the problems in Oregon.


https://bobtiernan.com/issues/


Christine Drazen: She basically is a typical establishment style Republican who gives standard talking points to issue after issue. For example in one of the debates she was asked how she would help solve the problems of rural Oregon and her answer was : "I am a small town girl who knows the problems of small towns which is why I will reduce the size of government so they can decide their own future". Literally as scripted as you can get

https://www.christinefororegon.com/issues/


Stan Pulliam: He is a far right Republican running as a Rand Paul/Trump hybrid and generally gives angry answers to every possible issue.

https://www.stanpulliam.org/issues

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Hopefully Bob Tiernan wins the primary for Governor though I wouldnt mind Bob Pierce too. Drazen imo would be a bad candidate as she is way to robotic and Pulliam would be a disaster

Didn't you say you'd back Drazan after Pierce said he'd look into expanding the OHP?

That was before the debate though where Drazen came off as extremely robotic . Here’s how I’d describe the 4 candidates actually

Bud Pierce: He is running like a Mark Hatfield style Republican and is open to even working with Democrats on creating a public option in the state. He also believes we should invest in natural resources to help improve rural Oregon.

https://budpierce.org/issues/

Bob Tiernan: He is pretty similar to Bud Pierce on issues such as housing/law and order/education but opposes a public option and is mainly running on improving competency in the different agencies in Oregon and generally has the most detailed platform by far on what he would do to help solve the problems in Oregon.


https://bobtiernan.com/issues/


Christine Drazen: She basically is a typical establishment style Republican who gives standard talking points to issue after issue. For example in one of the debates she was asked how she would help solve the problems of rural Oregon and her answer was : "I am a small town girl who knows the problems of small towns which is why I will reduce the size of government so they can decide their own future". Literally as scripted as you can get

https://www.christinefororegon.com/issues/


Stan Pulliam: He is a far right Republican running as a Rand Paul/Trump hybrid and generally gives angry answers to every possible issue.

https://www.stanpulliam.org/issues

Looked at it and I agree. Tiernan and Pierce both seem sane and people I'd vote for, Drazen seems sane but not my type, and Pulliam looks to be completely nuts.

Yah Drazen could have been a pretty good candidate but the issue is she like many people in legislative leadership have lost the ability to take clear positions on issues .

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CNN color scheme is still horrific

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McCormick starting to pull away.

Not anymore, it's back down to 1.6% lead for McCormick.   He is doing really good in the northern rurals for some reason.

Probably mail in vs same day vote

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This is stunning

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It's pretty obvious y'all are pulling for oz.

Whatever happened to the concept of pulling for the best candidate in both primaries?

There is an argument to be made that Oz is the most electable candidate

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It's pretty obvious y'all are pulling for oz.

Whatever happened to the concept of pulling for the best candidate in both primaries?

There is an argument to be made that Oz is the most electable candidate

That might be true if it weren't for the fact that he doesn't actually live here.

It’s more about McCormick not being that great of a candidate either vs Oz being a great one . Republicans probably should have run someone like Glenn Thompson

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Ugh Drazen is beating Tiernan. Get ready for another Dem +6 result

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Our state GOP really is cursed

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Meanwhile in Oregon Q-Anon poster girl Jo Rae Perkins is leading for an encore of her 2020 drubbing for the Senate.

Oregon Republicans are really stunningly incompetent. For Governor we are gonna nominate someone who just spouts vague establishment talking points and is extremely robotic and in Senate gonna nominate Perkins again.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/dcoxpolls/status/1526547284732915713

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Who was the strongest ORGOP candidate for Senate?

nobody since no serious candidate attempted to take on Wyden to begin with. We had many for Oregon with Pierce and Tiernan having pretty good shots at winning a general and Drazen in theory too but I think the Dems win by 6 points there as Drazen doesnt seem like a good campaigner

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https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

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https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

I mean y'all have won it for the past 14 years

not this is Kurt's district

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So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

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https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1527004062943936513?s=20&t=TbPziFL...

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So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

Hey, I wasn't any happier about it than you are.  I just figured that it was the easiest way for Josh Shapiro to win.  I like him -- I think he has a lot of integrity.  

DelRosso was just...because.  And I had my reasons for voting Oz.  

That’s an extremely risky way of voting and something I absolutely would never do . I would never want a crazy person to be nominated from either party in this current polarized day and age

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I still have PA Senate at either seat number 52 or 53 for the GOP as this what I think the GOP's chance of winning these seats are:

WI: 95%
NC: 90%
NV: 75%
AZ: 70%
GA: 55%
PA: 55%
NH: 30%
CO: 20%
WA: 5%

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Will Raffensperger stay above 50%

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https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1529278319715295233?t=zJp4RhRuH26tiChjAZQT...