2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

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Franco Ontarians are no monolith.

Rural Francos in GPR are certainly more socially conservative, and will vote Tory when the Liberals are weak, but usually do vote Liberal.

Francos in Orleans almost entirely work for the government, so are a fairly consistent Liberal voting bloc

Francos in Ottawa-Vanier are more working class or are students, and are more amenable to voting NDP. OV is a fairly diverse place too, and its Franco population is no exception. You have UOttawa students in Sandy Hill (very progressive), old working class Francos in Lower Town and Vanier proper, and French speaking immigrants in some of the projects east of Vanier (Carson Meadows and Cryville areas) from places like West Africa and Haiti.

And then you have Francos in Northern Ontario that often vote NDP or Liberal. You have some places like Hearst (very French) that always vote Liberal though, but then you have the Sudbury suburbs that often vote NDP.

Thanks Hatman. I was thinking along the lines of what adma described as incremental sufficient numbers. Grand Lake Miramichi is one riding where increasing the Conservative vote percentage among Franco-Canadians would be useful for holding the riding in the next election.

How would you characterize the possibility of increasing Conservative vote share among Franco-Canadians in Glengarry Prescott Russell and Northern Ontario. I am assuming it would be easier among rural Franco-Canadians.

Pretty much the only chance the Tories have to win over Francos in this province right now is in GPR. Conservatives have not done well in Franco parts of Northern Ontario, except in the North Bay/Nipissing area which is more "rural" than your typical remote Francophone communities in the north. Of course, there is still some potential there, as Franco Northern Ontarians aren't exactly progressive liberals.

That map is taking a Trump 2016 approach to power which is bypassing the traditional must win states for the GOP such as VA/CO by winning the rust belt and making huge gains with WWC voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Prepare the popcorn. Patrick Brown is determined to burn down the party.

https://twitter.com/EvanLSolomon/status/1544853825827348480

Hopefully he becomes the Canadian equalivent of Lincoln project types

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https://twitter.com/stephenharper/status/1551723480785121281



Harper just endorsed Pierre Poilievre

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting article. I don't think that a party led by Poilievre would do particularly well in Quebec, but I have a hard time understanding why Quebec Conservative MPs hate him so much when he seems like a standard Conservative. Did they think that they were joining a different party?

I mean he's running against the former premier of Quebec...

Charest wasn't a particularly popular former premier though, especially by the end of his term. Anti-Charest sentiment mostly came from the left, but not exclusively - much of the CPC Quebec caucus are former ADQ/CAQistes, including Gerard Deltell who was actually leader of the ADQ and very opposed to Charest. And while Poilievre is a western conservative with his roots in the Canadian Alliance, and his policies are probably too right-wing for mainstream Quebecers, that makes Poilievre no different than Harper and Scheer - if anything, he's a continuation of Harper-era conservatism but speaks better French. My explanation is either Deltell, Rayes, Godin etc really don't like the guy, or they think Poilievre's "freedom" message will feel alien to the cultural sensibilities of Quebecers. Probably a combination of the two.

The Entire Poilievre strategy is to change the narrative and formula rather than fight on the same battleground that the Tories have fought on since 2015.

His strategy is based on the idea that voters really don't care about left center right as much as whether the issues facing them is being addressed and he has aggressively addressed issues such as housing that previous conservatives did not.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My final Prediction is:

Poilievre: 62%
Charest: 23%
Lewis: 12%
Atchinson: 2%
Baber: 1%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Poilievre Wins

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What's also interesting is the drop in support for social conservative candidates. Social conservative voters were key in both 2017 and 2022, and their preferences helped elect both Scheer and O'Toole.

2017: 16% (Lemieux+Trost)
2020: 25% (Lewis)
2022: 10% (Lewis)

I suppose some of that is due to the party signing up new memberships of more disenfranchised types who are less likely to be socially conservative. Social conservatives may have also been turned off from participating in the party because they didn't get anything in return from supporting O'Toole and Scheer.

Or they just supported PP because as the 'consensus candidate' it was his race to lose. Same with the PC types from further up. Like there comes a point where a candidate is just that popular within his lane that all types of voters in all types of factions support them, with the exception of the most radical parts of those factions.

Yah my guess is they backed PP this time around

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First consequence of the CPC having lost touch with reality, Quebec MP Alain Rayes leaves the party, saying he believes in law and order, unlike Poilievre.

So the Canadian equivalent of Change UK and the Lincoln Project Appears . Well and don’t forget back in 2004 when Joe Clark endorsed the Libs :

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1790840235

[OSR stands with Israel]

First consequence of the CPC having lost touch with reality, Quebec MP Alain Rayes leaves the party, saying he believes in law and order, unlike Poilievre.

So the Canadian equivalent of Change UK and the Lincoln Project Appears . Well and don’t forget back in 2004 when Joe Clark endorsed the Libs :

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1790840235

Change UK was a flop but also Corbyn was pretty far left so I think that made it easier for your Wets to fall in line whatever misgivings had of Boris.  Lincoln Project may have been small in numbers but election was close enough that the Never Trump Republicans were what cost Trump his second term.  Had they stayed with GOP or voted for third party, Trump would have won a second term.  I am guessing Lincoln Project only around 2% of Americans, but that was enough to tip the scales.

1. Fair

2. Sure but that would probably mean a Result with liberals getting around 10 more seats than the Tories in which case Pierre probably stays and there is another election in a year . Keep in mind they did  fail in 2016 though

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Skippy keeps talking about the "gatekeepers" as the new bogeyman we need to be worried about. Is this the Canadian version of draining the swamp?

Does he tranlsate gatekeepers in French? I'm not sure what it means, establishment, or elite?

I don't think I'm the target audience because gatekeepers and Laurentian elite are a bit foreign concepts.

"Laurentian elite" isn't something he talks about, tbf. It's an obsession of more intellectual-type conservatives. "Gatekeeper", meanwhile, may well be Pierre's favourite word in the English language.

If we think of Poilievre's strategy as one that tries to unite anti-establishment populists with traditional fiscal conservatives, the "anti-gatekeeper" theme is a brilliant one. He uses the phrase "fire the gatekeepers" where a traditional fiscal conservative might have said "deregulate the ____ industry".

Also the fact is if you are a conservative running against the bureaucracy works well across the board:

Economic Conservatives: The bureaucracy in their view tends to be the people who put way too much regulation and rules on business so the anti regulation message fits in here

Social Conservatives: The bureaucracy in their view tends to be the people who are more culturally liberal and woke and running against that could be popular with social conservatives

Populists: The bureaucracy in their view tends to be a bunch of elitists who look down on the average person so running against the bureaucracy could resonate a lot with populists

Libertarian: This is self explanatory given they are anti big government

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2.  Moderates like Poilievre believe government has gotten too big and needs to be reduced.  Its more a matter of degree so yes he could lose them if he goes too far once in power, but while true moderates tend to usually shun a small government message, if government is seen as growing too much different story.  See Mike Harris in 1995 or Margaret Thatcher in UK.  Both brought along moderates as belief was both cases had swung too far to left and needed change.

Somehow, referring to Poilievre as a "moderate" relative to Harris or Thatcher seems...off.  (Though yes, maybe he's euphemistically "moderate" relative to the party's rank and file today)

Poilievre is no moderate, I said reason some like him, not that he is one.  People like Kenneth Clarke in UK had no trouble serving in Thatcher government and ones like Elizabeth Whitmer in Mike Harris' case so it is possible although far from certain you see similar thing with Poilievre even though he is no moderate just as Harris and Thatcher were not either.

and of course George HW Bush was the VP to Ronald Reagan, and Reagan had James Baker has his chief of staff for his first term

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https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Canada_Sept_2022.pdf

Mainstreet has Tories up 8 and leading big time with young voters