My prediction is the same as yours.
Lean/Likely D, McAuliffe +4.5, with the county map identical to VA-PRES 2016. Democrats also win AG/LG, obviously.
If it’s a high single-digit margin for McAuliffe/Democrats and Youngkin even loses Virginia Beach and Chesterfield, alarm bells should be going off at the NRSC/NRCC. If Democrats somehow lose or only barely (<2 points) hold VA and underperform Biden substantially in NJ, they can kiss the House and Senate and most of their Trump/Biden-state governorships goodbye.
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