If this is really 2008 this could be an apt analogy:
Arizona= Colorado
Georgia= Virginia
Texas= North Carolina
Ohio = Missouri
? = Indiana
The only equivalent for IN, as in a state that votes Dem out of left field, but then goes back to being Republican is probably MT, KS, or AK, and I doubt any of them vote R for President, but I could see all 3 be D for Sen., but they all could be close for President, so actually I'd say OH/IA as Indiana, and MT/KS/AK as MO, as OH/IA are likelier to vote D than MT/KS/AK for President, but probably not for Senate.
I actually would say then Iowa as Indiana and Ohio as Missouri. Missouri being a state that was once considered a bellwether state for a very long time fails to vote for the winner even in a year the winner won a huge victory and basically marking the end of that state being considered a battleground state. Even if Biden wins Ohio, it would have been like Obama winning Missouri(which he definitely could have) in which it is more like a last hurrah than anything.
Iowa goes as Indiana in that you see a massive swing but the problem with this analogy is Indiana had been solid R for Decades before 2008 and nobody thought before Lehman that it would be close while Iowa even after 2018 was considered at worst a Likely R state(while Indiana even after 2006 was viewed as Safe R unless Bayh was on the ticket). Iowa really doesn't fit any 2008 state really.
I dont at this time seeing any state that is really equal to Indiana 2008 as MT actually more is equal to MT 2008 and KS in GA 2008 which were states that required a 1980 style Dem victory to flip
