Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden’s winning the nomination. I had a come to Jesus moment when Harris dropped out.

Warren, Sanders, and Pete are not penetrating his wall in the South.

At least it will just be one term.

Followed by President Haley or President DeSantis

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden’s winning the nomination. I had a come to Jesus moment when Harris dropped out.

Warren, Sanders, and Pete are not penetrating his wall in the South.

At least it will just be one term.

Followed by President Haley or President DeSantis

Yuck!

You probably would like them more than W Bush or Trump

[OSR stands with Israel]

I have zero interest in a Biden Presidency with a Republican senate that will inevitably block every single one of his appointments no matter what, even as he bends back over heels to cater to them. Hopefully enough Democrats agree with me for it not have to come to to a choice of lesser evils.

Unfortunately a lot of people buy this type of stuff, especially considering those voting for Biden like him due to him being moderate and associated with Obama.

There’s a big difference between catering to right-leaning voters and catering to an openly hostile Congressional GOP. Look at JBE for how to successfully do the former without being stupid enough to do the latter like Biden wants to.

I will do my part and hope that in the event Biden is unfortunately the nominee that he does just well enough for Democrats to make gains in Congress and the Senate while still barely losing overall. A Trump second-term with a looming six-year itch Election would do far more to advance the Progressive agenda than anything Biden would be able or willing to do.

IMO, a Biden presidency would be similar to if John Kerry had won in 2004: The Congress would of stayed in GOP hands blocking any legislation and Kerry would of been clobbered in 2008 over the recession leading to a landslide for the GOP.

I can't see anything good coming out of Biden winning particularly if the Senate doesnt flip and/or RBG passes and is replaced by Trump. The GOP will obstruct him while he begs for bipartisanship, followed by the inevitable Dem losses in the midterms like in 1994 and 2010. The GOP Congress will then vote to impeach him for the Ukraine scandal and then he loses in 2024.

That’s pretty much exactly how it will unfold if Biden wins, barring a huge Democratic wave in the Senate. It’s just not worth the cost. And just our luck too, there’ll probably be a recession in a Biden term, and Democrats will get destroyed like freaking 1980 come 2024

and if Warren wins and there is a Republican Senate or at best 50-51 Dem senators how would that change things anymore lol.


In that cause 2024 still would be 1980

[OSR stands with Israel]

Two other things I want to add, for the benefit of those who think our entire political strategy should revolve around recessions:

1) The 2008 recession is an extreme case of what a recession can be.  It was far more damaging, and lasted far longer, than previous recessions.  George W Bush had a recession early in his presidency, and it didn't hurt him much.  Reagan had two recessions in his first term.  Whatever recession comes will probably just be a normal recession, not something caused by massive, widespread fraud in a critical financial market.  It will drop the economy by 10-15% and be over within a year.  If it happens early in the first term, we'll be recovered and well into a bull market by the midterms.

2) There isn't any timeline for when a recession has to occur.  Clinton went his entire presidency without a recession.

So you spend all this time counting on a recession to strike in Trump's first term, damaging him so much that we sweep the midterms.  But in reality, that recession probably won't happen at all, and if it does happen it will most likely be relatively quick and painless, and forgotten by the midterms.

1. The Early 80s Recession isnt a good example to use as an mild recession lol , it was a double than triple dip recession and the economy was just as bad from late 79-mid 83 as it was from late 08-early 13

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden's take on the GOP is wishful thinking at best and naive at worst. As member of the Obama Admin, he should know better. The GOP is an obstructionist party that embraces far right policies, is in the pocket of special interests and a threat to our democracy. Its elected officials in congress are a bunch of cowards for selling out to Mr. Trump, the most unethical, corrupt and personally disgusting prez, and surrendering before their Fox "News" base. All because they put career and party over country. And these people won't change even if Mr. Trump goes down in flames next year. Let's be real here. Biden may know some of these congressional GOPers in private and thinks they are good people. But who cares if they are too cowardly to stand up to Mr. Trump's many violations or block everything to improve people's lives? I have zero respect for these GOPers in congress.

Biden certainly wishes the GOP would be a normal conservative party like the Canadian Tories or most Christan Democratic parties in Europe. But they have abandoned this many, many years ago. It may be there a few honorable GOP officials, like Gov. Baker, but they are not in congress.

Biden has not been my 1st choice, and I haven't decided who I will vote for in the CA Dem primary. It's going to be him, Warren or Butti. Anyone else beyond Sanders seems to have no chance either. For sure, I'll vote for any Dem nominee. Not that CA matters much though.

This is where I disagree with you , I dont think the GOP politicians today are more cowardly than they were in 1974. The main difference is back then the voters were no where near as partisian as they were and almost every state in the union could potentially be won by the other party in some circumstances.This then forced the politicians to be honorable and not accept Nixon's crimes.

On the other hand today its the opposite, where over 80% of the states and races are basically Safe for one party(with rare exceptions like Roy Moore situations) and due to that politicians real only realistic threat of reelection comes from primaries not general elections.


When that happens you get our current situation.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden's take on the GOP is wishful thinking at best and naive at worst. As member of the Obama Admin, he should know better. The GOP is an obstructionist party that embraces far right policies, is in the pocket of special interests and a threat to our democracy. Its elected officials in congress are a bunch of cowards for selling out to Mr. Trump, the most unethical, corrupt and personally disgusting prez, and surrendering before their Fox "News" base. All because they put career and party over country. And these people won't change even if Mr. Trump goes down in flames next year. Let's be real here. Biden may know some of these congressional GOPers in private and thinks they are good people. But who cares if they are too cowardly to stand up to Mr. Trump's many violations or block everything to improve people's lives? I have zero respect for these GOPers in congress.

Biden certainly wishes the GOP would be a normal conservative party like the Canadian Tories or most Christan Democratic parties in Europe. But they have abandoned this many, many years ago. It may be there a few honorable GOP officials, like Gov. Baker, but they are not in congress.

Biden has not been my 1st choice, and I haven't decided who I will vote for in the CA Dem primary. It's going to be him, Warren or Butti. Anyone else beyond Sanders seems to have no chance either. For sure, I'll vote for any Dem nominee. Not that CA matters much though.

This is where I disagree with you , I dont think the GOP politicians today are more cowardly than they were in 1974. The main difference is back then the voters were no where near as partisian as they were and almost every state in the union could potentially be won by the other party in some circumstances.This then forced the politicians to be honorable and not accept Nixon's crimes.

On the other hand today its the opposite, where over 80% of the states and races are basically Safe for one party(with rare exceptions like Roy Moore situations) and due to that politicians real only realistic threat of reelection comes from primaries not general elections.


When that happens you get our current situation.

GOPers in 1974 were much less cowards, even right wingers like Goldwater. If I remember correctly, it was him who told Nixon in August 1974 that he lacks support to survive the impeachment and that it's over. The base back then was less tribal for sure, what can be explained through the media landscape then and now. But evidence on Mr. Trump's misconduct is clear as day. And these congressional enablers are deflecting in phony excuses and embrace conspiracy theories that US Intel agencies debunked and warned them not to spread. If this is not a moment to put country over party, then what is? These senators and congressmen have no backbone. It's all about Mr. Trump's cult. Not even about conservative policies or Federalist Society judges. If Mr. Trump was removed, they would still get this stuff with Pence.

The GOP of 1974 had no choice but to force Nixon out or the GOP very well could have been wiped out to 1936 levels. That is why they did what they did , as the defeat they actually were given in 1974 is nothing compared to the defeat they would have gotten if they stood with Nixon.

Today on the other Republican politicians are more likely to get reelected if they stand with Trump then be in support of impeachment while the exact opposite was true in 1974.  That is the main problem , the GOP politicians not standing up to Trump is the symptom of the problem not the the problem it self.


The problem is that over 80% of the races in our country(and that is a generous number) are Safe by the time of the general election which means the politicians really are at risk at losing their seat in primaries and not general elections which incentivizes politicians to be even more partisan .

[OSR stands with Israel]

The difference in Biden and Sanders’ leads against Trump in Jose polls is statistically insignificant and a statistician of Morris’s background is negligent not to mention that

The fact that Biden consistently does 1-2 better than Bernie in pretty much EVERY poll though, and usually better than that median when there is a discrepancy, DOES point to it being statistically significant. Also the fact that Biden's "undecideds" are far more favorable to him than Bernie's are, as Bernie has consolidated the younger vote to an extent Biden has not yet.

I don’t know what stats class you took, but that is still not a conclusion supported by statistically significant empirical data

The margin of error also could be a margin of error in favor of Biden

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden needs to be in the retirement home. That’s his crowd.

I’m 30. I’m 100% for Biden.

Hell, I'm 20, & I'm also 100% for Biden. Guess I'm packing my bags from my dorm to a retirement home first thing on Monday morning!

There was a story on the local news here showing a place that is both a dorm and a retirement home lol .

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234362587531370496

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1234657990189383681?s=20

Kamala endorsement?

I will be f-cking S H O O K

Given it is Oakland couldnt it mean an endorsement from Jerry Brown as well

[OSR stands with Israel]

Watch the first minute of this. Biden has serious memory and speaking issues. Trump will take advantage of these which will be an issue for Biden at the debates.
https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/status/1234604568316665856

He's also exceptionally thin-skinned. Trump will rile him up without breaking a sweat, and he'll only get more inarticulate the angrier he becomes.

The angrier Joe Biden gets the better he does lol . That’s why he did so well in the last debate

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bernie should be asked if he knows what the difference between a Beveridge and Bismarck system is

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given that Bernie is the only candidate left who cares about the Palestinian people I will vote for Bernie then sit out the Presidential line in November and just vote Dem downballot.

You're really going to put Trump back in office because Biden doesn't hate Israel enough?

It's 2016 all over again.  Don't ever try to talk about Trump like you care.  You care more about feeling pure and holding the moral high ground than you do about anything Trump does.

Don't play that bullsh**t with me, Biden is not entitled to my vote. I am not voting for a candidate who calls my people crazy and will do nothing to prevent my homeland from becoming a Bantustan go cry a river to someone else.

There is a difference between hating Israel and sticking up for my people's rights try again.

Biden's not entitled to your vote personally, but all the people who will be seriously harmed by a second Trump term are. Think of all the government programs Trump and the Republicans will slash, those who die preventably from our health care system, the worldwide victims of climate change, etc.

Once again, Trump is not losing Florida, he's still immensely popular here the Dems have no ground game, we have a super popular GOP governor and government who will reflect positively on Trump

Fllrida is tge definition of a swing state. You do NOT have that as an excuse to say 'screw you' to all the people McCarther pointed out will be harmed by Trumps policies.

Not really Florida has become a pretty stubborn Lean R State now. AZ , NC and even GA are way better bets for the Democrats now

[OSR stands with Israel]

Correct me if I am wrong TSA, but in the Spring of 2015 you were Rand or Bust and hated Jeb more than any other candidate so if 2016 ended up Rand vs Jeb that would have basically been that year's version of Bernie vs Biden for you.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Correct me if I am wrong TSA, but in the Spring of 2015 you were Rand or Bust and hated Jeb more than any other candidate so if 2016 ended up Rand vs Jeb that would have basically been that year's version of Bernie vs Biden for you.

TSA (LibertarianRepublican) is a former Republican turned Democrat for no reason whatsoever (for being a Never-Trumper).

Not really he said back then there was no way he would ever vote for Jeb either and given how Neo-Con Marco was , I doubt he would have supported him either.

I think he is more of an Indie who never really fit either party, and I feel he was a Republican then cause a Democrat had been in the WH for the prior 7 years and he just supported the Republican who was the most against the FP Establishment(Rand). Nothing wrong with it of course and I know a few people like this and I bet there are actually many swing voters like this.


In Fact is Chairman Sanchez was on the Left's side on the immigration argument I bet he too would be this type of voter as well