Today I learned Texas is to the right of Kentucky.
Also I bet if you simulated the election in South Carolina with the same dynamics that the Democrat would probably also win there, but that’s debatable. Jim Smith came within 8% against a non-controversial incumbent just last year.
And wth with Virginia being only +11.5. Ed Gillespie got whooped by 9, so to suggest a candidate as laughably bad as Bevin would only do 2.5% worse is ludicrous
Kentucky is to the right of Texas but it’s also a union state which is why Bevin got as unpopular as he did . Also the National GOP would go all in to try to save a Texas Governor which they didn’t to till last minute in Kentucky . Sadly if they did do that , Bevin probably wins the race by 4 or so points .
Now Beshear could win TX but it would be a pure tossup so I just went with closest race here ( the senate race in 18 is also pretty close to this one).
As of VA , the GOP has a floor around 43% for non confederate type candidates so the best I see Beshear winning is by 13 .
You also liked a post that had Beshear winning by 8 points in WV so I think you do agree that states can have some different dynamics .