But, but it's lean or likely Republican because of 2018...
I'd give Trump a small advantage, but Florida is absolutely winnable for the Democratic ticket. Biden should be fine if he's the nominee. Either way, the states will be within 2-3 points. Somewhere between Trump +3 and Biden +1.5.
Well this poll doesnt show much good news for the Dems here, and actually shows why the state is Lean R and with some candidates closer to Likely than Tossup. With the exception of 2012 , Republicans usually outperform the polls in Florida , kinda of like how Democrats outperform polls in Nevada. So I think the characterization of Lean R is correct here, and against candidates like Warren I could see Trump win by 5 points here(Around the same margin as Bush in 04).
Now is the state still winnable yes, but I would say as long as the fundamentals dont change and Trump doesnt run a bad campaign in FL(like Mitt did) , FL will most likely go for Trump.
