FL-FAU: Trump tied with Biden, small leads over others

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2019/florida-poll-finds-trump-popular-in-the-sunshine-state-while-biden-dominates-democratic-field.php

Florida: FAU, May 16-19, 1007 RV

Biden 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Sanders 49
Trump 52, Warren 48
Trump 52, Buttigieg 48
Trump 53, Harris 47

[Mail-order President]

Lean R

[President Johnson]

But, but it's lean or likely Republican because of 2018...

I'd give Trump a small advantage, but Florida is absolutely winnable for the Democratic ticket. Biden should be fine if he's the nominee. Either way, the state will be within 2-3 points. Somewhere between Trump +3 and Biden +1.5.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL isn't gonna be the tipping point race, WI will be. But, it's in play.

[Gass3268]

Zero undecides a year and a half out? Trash!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zero undecides a year and a half out? Trash!

FAU is not a great pollster.  538 gives them a C+ rating.

[OSR stands with Israel]

But, but it's lean or likely Republican because of 2018...

I'd give Trump a small advantage, but Florida is absolutely winnable for the Democratic ticket. Biden should be fine if he's the nominee. Either way, the states will be within 2-3 points. Somewhere between Trump +3 and Biden +1.5.

Well this poll doesnt show much good news for the Dems here, and actually shows why the state is Lean R and with some candidates closer to Likely than Tossup. With the exception of 2012 , Republicans usually outperform the polls in Florida , kinda of like how Democrats outperform polls in Nevada.  So I think the characterization of Lean R is correct here, and against candidates like Warren I could see Trump win by 5 points here(Around the same margin as Bush in 04).


Now is the state still winnable yes, but I would say as long as the fundamentals dont change and Trump doesnt run a bad campaign in FL(like Mitt did) , FL will most likely go for Trump.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump up big with Hispanics!

Getting schlonged by 2016 third party voters! But converting a lot of #ResignedToHillary people to make up ground!

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Lane Kiffin probably made up this poll and released it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is a very accurate glimpse into the frustrating electoral hellhole that is the "Sunshine" State.

[History505]

Trump had the advantage right now.

[NOVA Green]

Meh--- Uni Poll without major street cred using undergrad "Slave Labor" (aka non-professionals not getting paid for their work testing out statistical modelling software designed by their Professor(s) to get College Credits for coursework.

New Atlas policy pretty much guts the ability to Snip images from the original source w/o approval process (Hence losing closer to real time response when posting), but data was collected from 604 respondents using landlines (!!!) and 403 respondents using an "online panel" (WTF that means IDK???) weighed against a '16 electorate by various Demographic categories....

I certainly would not use this poll to predict the outcome and current state of the '20 GE in FL, let alone the DEM Primary....

That being said, I agree with the concept that FL might well be a tough nut to crack for the DEMs and Trump stamina among the PUB base and INDYs might well be sufficient to hold the Sunshine State, regardless of whomever the DEM's select for the nod.

[Frenchrepublican]

Not a bad poll for Trump when you take into account that 52% of the sample is composed of college educated voters

FL is clearly lean R

[Person Man]

This was never Lean or Likely R and Democrats would be foolish to give up on FL.

But, but it's lean or likely Republican because of 2018...

I'd give Trump a small advantage, but Florida is absolutely winnable for the Democratic ticket. ... Either way, the state will be within 2-3 points. Somewhere between Trump +3 and Biden +1.5.

Pretty much this.

I think if Trump is winning, he probably wins Florida by 3-5 points like W did. On the other hand, if he is losing, he is losing Florida but by no more than 3 points.

In Florida, 47% of everyone who votes in each election is more or less a Democrat. 48% of them are more or less Republican.

It is only a fairly comfortable victory (Rubio, Obama '08, W '04) when basically everybody who didn't know who they were going to vote for at first voted for the same person. That said, a democrat has to win these voters by a large margin to win. They basically have to do what Trump did in the suburban Great Lake states in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

[Frenchrepublican]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

Lol. You are really dumb if you believe that some voters care about the faith of a candidate, Biden supports abortion and it is not a winning card with catholic voters. And stop with Ohio, this state is gone for democrats even if you believe the contrary

[President Johnson]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

Lol. You are really dumb if you believe that some voters care about the faith of a candidate, Biden supports abortion and it is not a winning card with catholic voters. And stop with Ohio, this state is gone for democrats even if you believe the contrary

Olowakandi believes Biden picks Tim Ryan as his running mate who will deliver Ohio... 

[Politician]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

Lol. You are really dumb if you believe that some voters care about the faith of a candidate, Biden supports abortion and it is not a winning card with catholic voters. And stop with Ohio, this state is gone for democrats even if you believe the contrary

>Unironically responding to OC

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Zero undecides a year and a half out? Trash!

FAU is not a great pollster.  538 gives them a C+ rating.

538 gives them a bad rating because unlike 538, FAU is actually fair and unbiased.

You’re your own meme.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

Lol. You are really dumb if you believe that some voters care about the faith of a candidate, Biden supports abortion and it is not a winning card with catholic voters. And stop with Ohio, this state is gone for democrats even if you believe the contrary

Gonzalez ratings and Cook and Sabato has FL, AZ as tossups, and OH was won by Trump by 5 points, the same as Obama won in 2012, its not a foregone conclusion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

Lol. You are really dumb if you believe that some voters care about the faith of a candidate, Biden supports abortion and it is not a winning card with catholic voters. And stop with Ohio, this state is gone for democrats even if you believe the contrary

Olowakandi believes Biden picks Tim Ryan as his running mate who will deliver Ohio... 

Kamala Harris, who is losing in every poll in the primary won't be Veep

[Progressive Pessimist]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

Lol. You are really dumb if you believe that some voters care about the faith of a candidate, Biden supports abortion and it is not a winning card with catholic voters. And stop with Ohio, this state is gone for democrats even if you believe the contrary

Olowakandi believes Biden picks Tim Ryan as his running mate who will deliver Ohio... 

Kamala Harris, who is losing in every poll in the primary won't be Veep

You could have said that about Biden too in 2008.

By the way, in my earlier post, I forgot to mention that if Biden can't lead Trump here, he has little to no chance in Georgia or North Carolina eithereither. A tie in Florida still favors the Republican candidate. Trump would be sure to win by the typical ~1% margin if this were to persist throughout the general election.

[Alben Barkley]

EC map sealing the House of Rep with 235 Democrats and a healthy Biden win, Biden's catholism helps him in PA and FL.

Lol. You are really dumb if you believe that some voters care about the faith of a candidate, Biden supports abortion and it is not a winning card with catholic voters. And stop with Ohio, this state is gone for democrats even if you believe the contrary

Lol you are really dumb if you believe that no voters care about the faith of a candidate. Maybe most don’t, but SOME do. We know that for a fact because polls tell us people are significantly less likely to vote for Muslims and Atheists than Christians and Jews, for instance. And I posted a whole thread with data from Pew Research Center showing the swing in the Catholic vote from Obama (who won Catholics) to Trump, and how Hispanic Catholics have consistently been slightly more Democratic than Hispanics on the whole, and significantly more Democratic than white Catholics and Catholics on the whole. This COULD actually matter, because if those Hispanic Catholics turn out to vote in even just slightly greater numbers and/or swing even just slightly harder for Biden than they did Obama because he is Catholic, that could conceivably have a tangible impact in some states, particularly if they are very close and have large Hispanic populations. So Florida, Nevada, Arizona, maybe Texas...

I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but dismissing the possibility is considerably dumber and less evidence-based than saying it might happen. But I can’t say I expect much other than dumbness from a “French Republican.”

Oh and also Pew numbers tell us that more Catholics actually are pro-choice. (What they definitely don’t like, however, is Trump’s immigration policy.) So again, one side has facts and evidence and the other side only has insults and claims pulled out of their ass. I wonder which side is the “dumb” one...