Trump '19 v. Dubya '03: who is/was in better shape for re-election?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump. Outside of his Twitter crap, he's not really having an effect on your average Joe's Daily life. I think the average perception of America, from an economic standpoint (which, at the end of the day, is what matters) is that things are good and getting better.

Bush in 2003 was preparing to send us into a war. He was much more direct and lines were being drawn. Kerry's weakness and the Presidency incumbency + Being a wartime President saved him. The War in Iraq, while not as unpopular as later, was on everyone's minds at this point in 2003.

Bush was leading by double digits in the polls and even leading in some polls in a state like California (which while not a democratic as now still went to Gore by double digits ). The war was still very popular then and actually boosted him in the polls .


The war really didn’t start to get polarized till like May of 04 and didn’t become unpopular till mid 05

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean Trump ,but they are really two totally opposite situations.  Trump has weak-ish approvals and polling vs. challengers but appears to be on a upward trajectory.  Bush 43 looked like he was going to be reelected in a historic landslide at this point in his 1st term, then made a long string of unforced errors for the last ~18 months and only eeked it out by one state. 

There's a pretty long history of 2 term presidents being underwater in approvals and losing to challengers in horserace polls 2-3 years into their first term and then rallying back to majority approval and a win by election day.  Reagan looked very weak in 1982-83, as did Obama in 2011.  Truman was famously written off as a double digit loser until staging a comeback in the last 6 weeks of the 1948 campaign.   

Conversely, Carter and Bush 41 looked like strong favorites until the last year of their terms.  Bush 43 was basically following that path.  The most interesting part is that he still managed to limp over the line and win reelection. 

Um no he was extremely unpopular for most of 1979 and many people didnt even think he would b renominated let alone reelected