GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.) (user search)
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  GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.) (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)  (Read 60343 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« on: January 18, 2020, 03:05:22 PM »

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,576


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2020, 10:26:11 AM »

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

Yeah that doesn’t mean jack in a racially polarized, ineleastic state. Nothing is going to sop GA on its leftward March, once it’s gone, it’s gone for good.


If Dems can’t win it in 2020 with Trump in the WH and in a Dem year they certainly won’t be able to win it in 2022 .

Their best case scenario would be a repeat of 2020 result but all that would do is hurt the career of a good candidate.



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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,576


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2020, 11:47:38 AM »

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

All you have to do is look back at 2018 Senate results and see that this isn't a sure a bet by any means. 2018 was a D+8 year and yet it didn't stop McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp from getting the boot. All three of those states were trending away from the Democrats and Georgia is doing the opposite. If anything, 2022 is likely Democrats' best chance considering how polarized this current climate is and Dems just have more realistic pickup opportunities that year even with a Democratic president.

That’s is a horrible comparison given how far MO , IN , and ND were already solid R states by then . GA won’t even be where OH was in 2018 by 2022 let alone those 3 states . A better comparison is where MO was in 2006 , for IN was only in Dems hands due to GOP throwing away that seat in 2012 and ND they won it in 2012 due to luck .





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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,576


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2020, 08:43:25 PM »

Perdue still wins

Warnock and Ossoff are not winning GA this year

Not in this climate

What climate would Democrats need? It's a blue wave year.

Depends on how large the wave is though, if the Dems win by around 6 points nationally then Biden will proabbly lose Georgia and unless Osoff can outperform Biden he will lose too
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