Would John Kasich have won Oregon?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary would not come close to wining Oregon by 10 points against Kasich as that’s the margin she won against trump



Oregon PVI is +8 Dem


And I think Kasich wins Nationally by 7 and stein takes 2% more of the vote than she did in OTL meaning Kasich Carries the state

[OSR stands with Israel]

Just because Oregon was close in 2004 doesn't mean it has remained that way. No Republican would have won Oregon unless it was a double-digit popular vote landslide for them. That is very unlikely with today's climate.

A Republican needs to win nationally by 8 to win Oregon




I think Kasich wins by 7-8 points

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary would not come close to wining Oregon by 10 points against Kasich as that’s the margin she won against trump



Oregon PVI is +8 Dem


And I think Kasich wins Nationally by 7 and stein takes 2% more of the vote than she did in OTL meaning Kasich Carries the state

Clinton won by 11, actually.

Not sure where you get the claim of OR being +8 PVI where the Democratic margins in the last 3 presidential elections were 11, 12, and 16 points.

Sorry bub. As much as I like the fantasy of Kasich being the nominee instead of Trump and carrying Oregon, it's just a fantasy. As pointed out, Kasich would need a national double digit win to even have a shot, and he'd still probably lose unless the national margin got closer to 12 points than 10.

Here

Bush won by 3 pounds in 2004 and Lost Oregon by 4 so Oregon had a + 7 PVI

Obama won by 7 points in 2008 so Oregon had a PVI of +9

Obama won by 4 points in 2012 so Oregon has a PVI of + 8

Clinton won 2 points in 2016 so Oregon had a PVI of + 9


Kasich is a better fit for Oregon than Trump Romeny or Bush 04 and Clinton is a worse fit than Obama so I would say if Kasich won by 8 points nationally he would take Oregon .



Oregon’s PVI has been pretty consistent

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary would not come close to wining Oregon by 10 points against Kasich as that’s the margin she won against trump



Oregon PVI is +8 Dem


And I think Kasich wins Nationally by 7 and stein takes 2% more of the vote than she did in OTL meaning Kasich Carries the state

Clinton won by 11, actually.

Not sure where you get the claim of OR being +8 PVI where the Democratic margins in the last 3 presidential elections were 11, 12, and 16 points.

Sorry bub. As much as I like the fantasy of Kasich being the nominee instead of Trump and carrying Oregon, it's just a fantasy. As pointed out, Kasich would need a national double digit win to even have a shot, and he'd still probably lose unless the national margin got closer to 12 points than 10.

This. Analyzing it with raw details is nice, but the fact is that elasticity is a thing and liberals won't vote for Kasich just because he's winning the national PV. Humans aren't robots voting like the statistics indicate.

If a a Republican is winning 8 points nationally that means states that are usually Democratic like Oregon are flipping as well .



Also a Democrat floor in Oregon is not 50% it’s around  47% and in an 8 point win it’s not far fetched to believe this could be the results in Oregon


Kasich 48%
Hillary 47.5
Stein 2.7%
Johnson 1.8%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary would not come close to wining Oregon by 10 points against Kasich as that’s the margin she won against trump



Oregon PVI is +8 Dem


And I think Kasich wins Nationally by 7 and stein takes 2% more of the vote than she did in OTL meaning Kasich Carries the state

Clinton won by 11, actually.

Not sure where you get the claim of OR being +8 PVI where the Democratic margins in the last 3 presidential elections were 11, 12, and 16 points.

Sorry bub. As much as I like the fantasy of Kasich being the nominee instead of Trump and carrying Oregon, it's just a fantasy. As pointed out, Kasich would need a national double digit win to even have a shot, and he'd still probably lose unless the national margin got closer to 12 points than 10.

This. Analyzing it with raw details is nice, but the fact is that elasticity is a thing and liberals won't vote for Kasich just because he's winning the national PV. Humans aren't robots voting like the statistics indicate.

If a a Republican is winning 8 points nationally that means states that are usually Democratic like Oregon are flipping as well .

Why? You'd have to assume high elasticity amongst Oregon voters, and that's not necessarily the case. Kasich's socially conservative view and probable tack to the right to rally the base would likely make him unpalatable to most liberals.

Well Bush only lost Oregon in 2004 by 4 points despite being a bad fit for the state that year(No Nader that year) and Oregon really hasnt trended that much more dem since then(by only around 1 or 2 points and that is more or less due to Obama being a great fit for the state and Trump being a Terrible one).


Kasich is a much better fit for Oregon than Bush was in 2004 a Big National Win like 8 points along with being a better fit would be just enough to flip the state.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary would not come close to wining Oregon by 10 points against Kasich as that’s the margin she won against trump



Oregon PVI is +8 Dem


And I think Kasich wins Nationally by 7 and stein takes 2% more of the vote than she did in OTL meaning Kasich Carries the state

Clinton won by 11, actually.

Not sure where you get the claim of OR being +8 PVI where the Democratic margins in the last 3 presidential elections were 11, 12, and 16 points.

Sorry bub. As much as I like the fantasy of Kasich being the nominee instead of Trump and carrying Oregon, it's just a fantasy. As pointed out, Kasich would need a national double digit win to even have a shot, and he'd still probably lose unless the national margin got closer to 12 points than 10.

This. Analyzing it with raw details is nice, but the fact is that elasticity is a thing and liberals won't vote for Kasich just because he's winning the national PV. Humans aren't robots voting like the statistics indicate.

If a a Republican is winning 8 points nationally that means states that are usually Democratic like Oregon are flipping as well .

Why? You'd have to assume high elasticity amongst Oregon voters, and that's not necessarily the case. Kasich's socially conservative view and probable tack to the right to rally the base would likely make him unpalatable to most liberals.

Well Bush only lost Oregon in 2004 by 4 points despite being a bad fit for the state that year(No Nader that year) and Oregon really hasnt trended that much more dem since then(by only around 1 or 2 points and that is more or less due to Obama being a great fit for the state and Trump being a Terrible one).


Kasich is a much better fit for Oregon than Bush was in 2004 a Big National Win like 8 points along with being a better fit would be just enough to flip the state.

Again, trends are one thing and elasticity is another. Oregon, just like the rest of the country, became much more polarized, and the liberals and even moderates there (who are likely to be very socially liberal) are unlikely to vote for a conservative Republican, imo.

Well if Kasich is winning by 8 percent nationally he has likely made some inroads into some democratic groups .

How is Trump a bad fit for Oregon?

His denial of climate change, being anti trade and being a terrible fit for suburbs in general

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich wouldn't have won Oregon because he's not winning nationally by 7 points. Obama won by 7.2% in 2008 only because he ran a perfect campaign, went up against a lackluster candidate, and had a major recession occur. He also was running after an unpopular two term GOP President.

This is basically as extreme as it gets for the current polarization in America. A 7-8 point win. If he was the nominee, Kasich may have run a good campaign, but it wouldn't have been as good as Obama's. He did have the mediocre opponent in Clinton, but the economy was in relatively good shape (much better than Fall 2008) AND Fall 2016 Obama was more popular than Fall 2008 Bush - which is not debatable even if you don't like Obama.

Kasich at best could have won the popular vote by 3 to 4 points. But he's not winning by 7, and he sure as hell is not winning Oregon.

McCain's favorables were also Far Better than Hillary's Were



If Obama faced a Republican with Hillary level Favorables in 2008 he wins by double digits, and with over 400 Electoral Vote

[OSR stands with Israel]

No (not a delusional Kasich hack)

Oregon PVI is +8 Dem


Kasich could win Nationally by more than 8