Is Donald Trump the next Jimmy Carter?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Except Sanders will be to old to run in 2020, if Reagan was 74 in 1976 when he lost we would have had Bush as president and no conservative era

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't really see it.  Carter was the last hurrah of the old New Deal workers' rights alignment.  Trump is an attempt at something very new and different.  The analogy would work a lot better were Jeb Bush the R nominee.

My working theory right now is that Trump = Bryan 1896/1900 and Clinton beats him by 2.5 with the EC looking particularly lopsided.  Then Cruz = Parker 1904 and Clinton beats him by 12 in 2020, after which the Trumpists take full control of the party and start purging neocons and movement conservatives.  One more National Review type sneaks through a primary circa 2028-36, but he gets crushed in the general and then the realignment is complete.

Dems wont be in power that long

My prediction is this is how the election is like

Clinton = Nixon
Bush = Carter
Obama = Ronald Reagan
Clinton= HW Bush

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dems wont be in power that long

My prediction is this is how the election is like

Clinton = Nixon
Bush = Carter
Obama = Ronald Reagan
Clinton= HW Bush

That's not exactly a given right now. If Republicans cannot fix their non-white voter issue and fail to substantially increase their share of the white vote, then they could find themselves locked out of the White House indefinitely due to the fact that non-white voters are getting very close to being unanimously Democratic at this point, and their share of the electorate is growing very rapidly at roughly 2% - 2.5% every 4 years. The numbers don't add for Republicans right now. You could say they could expand their share of the white vote, which is probable but limited in efficacy. White Millennials are much more liberal/open to Democrats and Republicans might find themselves unable to make significant inroads with them if they don't change substantially. They went 45% for Obama in 2012... So for Republicans to greatly expand their share of the overall white vote, they would need to drive that number down to 30%~ to begin a long-term advantage. I don't know how they do that at this point. By 2020, Millennials will make up almost half the eligible voters in America, and it grows fast from there. This could be only the beginning of the GOP's problems in presidential races.

Don't get me wrong, personally I think that kind of extended stay is more unlikely than not, but minorities have been consistently Democratic even when white voters swung back and forth between the parties, so saying a recession or scandal could break them isn't exactly backed up by history.

I just want to say, though, that for Republicans to begin reliably winning presidential races again they have to make significant inroads with minorities - Something they have been really bad at, and in fact are still continuing to damage their chances with even now (Trump). Whites only strategy is never going to work.

Dems seemed in a worse position after 1988 so we never know