AL-SEN: Shelby retiring

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think Bradley Byrne might try again.

If not him, maybe Mo Brooks or Robert Aderholt?

While Byrne has become a Trump lackey, he’s probably still too intelligent and articulate to win a R primary here.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Will Roy Moore run? I haven't found anything.

He wouldn't get the nomination. He couldn't make the runoff last time. If he did, I'm not sure he would lose a general in the midterm of a D President in such a red state.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Shelby endorsed Britt.

So i guess we will see whose endorsement matters more.

I’d love to be wrong, but pretty sure it will be the cult leader’s.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Shelby endorsed Britt.

So i guess we will see whose endorsement matters more.

I’d love to be wrong, but pretty sure it will be the cult leader’s.

Well, the cult leader also endorsed Strange. But I guess you're right.

I guess the difference between this and the 2020 AL Senate race is that Trump didn't so much support Tuberville as he just opposed Sessions...Tuberville is the one who got in the runoff with Sessions so that's who Trump endorsed. Trump didn't endorse anyone on the first ballot.

In this case, he's actually endorsing someone well before the first primary ballot and also none of the other candidates are as toxic to the MAGA crowd as Sessions was so yeah maybe Trump's endorsement won't carry AS MUCH weight.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think the fact that “Not Mo Brooks” is getting 60-70% in the polls between Durant & Britt suggests that he’s gonna lose the run off to one of them. It’d be rare for a high profile divisive candidate like Brooks to do much better in the run off. Could be wrong, but I expected him to walk it like Walker is in Georgia - the fact he isn’t, and the fact he’s a proven statewide loser, makes me think Alabama just isn’t that in to him.

At this point, I honestly wonder how likely it is that Brooks doesn't even make the runoff. Also from what I've heard, the fact that he's from Huntsville works against him in a statewide primary for whatever reason.

It's not considered part of the "Real Alabama"....southern AL thinks we're basically Tennessee.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Please please don’t let him rejoin the race for his House seat (don’t think he can, but not 100% sure). I want a new representative even if it’s another Trumpite.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Why does Brooks seem to have such trouble breaking out statewide? He got third in 2017 to garbage-tier candidates Luther Strange and Roy Moore and he's getting trounced this year by two first-time candidates. He's plenty right-wing enough for the GOP base, so what gives?

He is very, very bad at playing politics (raising money, campaigning, hiring smart people, etc.)

I still think him being from Huntsville hurts...the rest of the state doesn't like it and thinks of it as Tennessee.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Why does Brooks seem to have such trouble breaking out statewide? He got third in 2017 to garbage-tier candidates Luther Strange and Roy Moore and he's getting trounced this year by two first-time candidates. He's plenty right-wing enough for the GOP base, so what gives?

As another R-AL poster said, Huntsville has long been the red-headed stepchild of Alabama politics.  It's socially and economically disconnected from Alabama's historic political "establishment" centered on Montgomery/the Black Belt.  Newer, transplant-driven metroes tend to suffer the same fate in other Southern states as well (i.e., Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, MS Gulf Coast, even South Florida to a certain extent, etc.) until critical mass is reached (i.e., Atlanta)  

Even so, it's perplexing Brooks is doing so badly (even before Trump withdrew his endorsement) against two candidates who have never run for office. Say what you want about Strange and Moore, but both had previously won statewide elections (primary and general) so it was a little more understandable that he struggled against them...he didn't have their name recognition. Strange was the incumbent with Trump's endorsement and had previously been the state's AG. Moore was the Chief Justice and had national notoriety (and the pedophile stuff didn't come out till after he won the Senate nomination).

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Who should win the primary, Britt or Durant?

Ugh...Britt is pandering bigtime to the "white males without college degrees" demographic, but I still prefer her to Durant.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

https://www.alreporter.com/2022/04/20/opinion-who-is-mike-durant/?amp

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

So is Brooks going to win it after all?

It's almost certainly going to a runoff, where I would suspect Brooks would be favored - especially if Trump recommits. The fact that he dropped the endorsement and called him "woke" was very cringy.

Trump almost certainly endorses Britt and I don’t think Brooks will be able to overcome that.

Britt will have to repeat the Big Lie to get Trump's endorsement which will make me like her even less, but I'll still hold my nose and vote for her in the runoff...we have to slay the dragon (Brooks).

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

https://twitter.com/MoBrooks/status/1535462541484335106?s=20&t=NifDsOCLAnpzv...

You’d think someone so easily conned maybe just maybe shouldn’t be President.

This is literally Mo Brooks’ campaign…

Prior to being unendorsed by Trump: Vote for me..I have Trump’s endorsement!

After being unendorsed by Trump: I’m still the Trump candidate!

After Trump endorses Katie Britt: Who cares what Trump thinks? He got it wrong in 2017! AL decides!

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think this seals the deal for Britt but it will still be probably somewhat close.

Nah...I'm starting to wonder if Brooks loses worse than Sessions now. I think it's actually possible Brooks doesn't carry a single county. Even in Madison and Limestone counties (the only two he carried in his 2017 run), he was well below 50%.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Guess my final prediction wasn't too far off...Brooks did lose slightly worse than Sessions and won just one county that wasn't even in his district. That's right...his own district didn't even want him as their senator (glad I contributed to him losing Madison County as the margin was close).

This despite the fact that Brooks did have one advantage Sessions didn't...he had the endorsement of the third-place finisher, who combined with Brooks own' support, amounted to 52.5%. He completely and totally failed to capitalize on that.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Why did Brooks win Shelby County of all places? It's suburban and high income compared to the rest of Alabama and has a lot of R voters that went for Doug Jones. Did a lot of anti-Trump Republicans there vote for Brooks because Britt had the Trump endorsement in the end?

I really don't see anti-Trump Republicans voting for Brooks given his prominent role in 1/6.

I'm stumped. It's a very Republican county historically (one of only a handful of counties that voted for Ford over Carter in the state), but it's no longer the most Republican. It's all the more puzzling given that Brooks won the county by less than 1% in the first round, but won it somewhat comfortably in the runoff.