with 1988 international and economic conditions, but current demography and voting patterns:
Bush/Quayle 306
Dukakis/Bentsen 232
Dukakis would win Pennsylvania today. He'd do much better in the east than he did then.
Im not so certain. PA is a state that hasnt changed so much from 1988 demographically. There is no reason why if we reran 1988, with today's demographics any of the eastern PA counties would flip from Bush to Dukakis. Afterall they are wealthy counties and a good economy with a GOP incumbent party would certainly boost GHW Bush there. Same with MI.
One thing people are missing is that the GOP hasnt really had a good year since 1988. The economy has been weak when their incumbents were running and strong or improving when Dem incumbents were running.
A Republican winning the popular vote by seven points nationally would be all but certain to carry PA. It mirrors the national average too closely.And unlike '88, he'd carry MN, WI, and IA (as Dubya did the latter in '04) too, while losing CA, IL, and a few other deep blue states.
But yeah, they haven't been able to run on "peace and prosperity" while the incumbents since 1988. That's just as much a problem as demographics.
