North Macedonia elections and politics (presidential & legislative elections May 8 2024)

[Beagle]

Nice growth for Levica, especially under a FPTP system.

What FPTP system?

With 3421/3480 precincts in, the number of MP is projected as follows:

SDSM coalition - 46 (-3 compared to 2016)
VMRO-DPMNE coalition - 44 (-7*)
DUI - 15 (+5)
AA/A - 12 (+9*)
DPA - 1 (-1)
Levica - 2 (+2)

* not taking into account post-election defections/party switches

Is the SDSM & DUI coalition most realistic? What are the odds for Albanian prime minister?

Likeliest scenario for now is a haggling over the more, er, malleable MPs (mostly from the minor parties in both coalitions, as well as from the lower reaches of the AA/A list). An Albanian prime minister is out of the question. A SDSM + DUI coalition is possible, but it will take a few months of gridlock to get there.

[Beagle]

Unfortunately it seems that the electoral commission suffered a heavy DDOS attack that may or may not have resulted in wrong tallies being counted/uploaded/reported. In a municipality next to the Bulgarian border, where there are virtually no Albanians and very few Roma, apparently shows as a AA/A landslide with 67.86% of the vote and DUI with 21.43%. This is very likely a report from an Albanian municipality, but with the website down, it is difficult to check. So it may be a while before things are known for certain.

As things stand, though, both blocs are declaring victory, it should be slightly easier for SDSM to form a government - but nothing can be taken for granted in North Macedonian politics.

[Beagle]

Zaev gets to form a SDSM-DUI coalition government. The historic compromise is that DUI may fulfill their promise and have an Albanian prime minister of their choice but for a 100 days or less. I wasn't aware of the fact, but apparently under the present legislation the sitting government is supposed to step down 100 days before the next scheduled election, leaving the conduct of the election to a 'technical' non-partisan(ish) government. The agreement now is that this 'technical' government will be scrapped, but instead for the 100 or so days before the vote DUI will get to name the prime minister.

Now whether a 61/120 SDSM-DUI majority will be sufficient is very much in question, especially considering how SDSM's coalition partners from Besa exist entirely as an opposition to DUI's dominance among Albanians, but maybe Zaev has a few more surprises to spring.

[Beagle]

Today was round 2 of the (North) Macedonian local elections, and while the results are still trickling in, everything points to a rather comprehensive* VMRO-DPMNE win. Crucially, VMRO stand to (re-)gain Skopje and PM Zoran Zaev, in an apparently futile attempt to mobilize his supporters, has promised to step down if his SDSM lose the mayorship of the capital. There should be no snap election, as a yet-unnamed SDSM minister is supposed to take over the government with the present coalition.

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Although Macedonian local elections have a history of landslides - in both 2009 and 2013 VMRO won 56 mayorships to SDSM's 7 and 4, respectively, while in 2017 SDSM won 57 mayorships to 5 for VMRO. This time SDSM will at least be in the double digits, but many of the municipalities they held on to are tiny

Paradoxically, this loss may actually strengthen the SDSM-DUI coalition 2 seat majority, as some of the Albanian Alliance MPs - VMRO's erstwhile coalition partners - are rather sore after VMRO ran/endorsed a number of non-Alliance candidates in Albanian plurality municipalities which were supposed to be their domain and are apparently planning to switch to the government side. Although the Albanian spectrum in Macedonian politics is in a constant flux (this time there was a rather discernible everyone-but-DUI unity, which led to Besa winning Tetovo, the biggest Albanian city), so this swich may yet come to nothing, as indeed may Zaev's resignation (DUI leader Ali Ahmeti has rather pointedly said that their coalition agreement was for a government headed by Zaev).

[Beagle]

The acronym snafu is a perfect tl:dr description of the present state of (North) Macedonian politics:

- Zaev never formally submitted his resignation - first promising it was going to happen towards the end of this week after the coalition had settled on a new PM and today rescinding even this promise but...

- As previously posted, Besa switched to the VMRO camp and a vote of no confidence is scheduled for tomorrow, which was going to pass with 61/120 votes, but...

- As one of the Albanian MPs threatened to switch after discovering that the new VMRO coalition was going to contain Levica (one of whose main planks is anti-Albanianism), the government suddenly looked safe, but...

- Levica and a number of other unsavory characters withdrew their signatures from the no confidence vote request (while still announcing their intention to bring the SDSM-DUI government down), allowing the Albanians to save face and still join the vote against the government, but...

- tonight a meeting of the government coalition was held - and apparently a couple of Besa MPs attended, which would mean a split in the party if true, and since the opposition coalition can't afford to lose even one vote, the situation is pretty volatile.

Mark Rutte is in Skopje and Macedonian media report that he has promised Zaev that the EU accession talks will start next month, despite the Bulgarian objections... as long as Zaev and his relatively pro-European majority is in place. So tomorrow will be a fateful day.

[Beagle]

- tonight a meeting of the government coalition was held - and apparently a couple of Besa MPs attended, which would mean a split in the party if true, and since the opposition coalition can't afford to lose even one vote, the situation is pretty volatile.

As alleged by Menduh Thaçi, leader of Democratic Party of Albanians and one of the participants of the meeting. Besa denies that their representatives were present at the meeting.

The Macedonian parliament is now in the 3rd hour of a 10 minute recess. The government parties have left the sitting, so the opposition needs 61 MPs in the chamber to start proceedings. Two VMRO deputies who tested covid positive/quarantined showed up dressed in spacesuit like protective gear, but...

one of the Besa deputies did not show up. He has posted on facebook that since the EU and US have shown willingness to open accession talks in December, now is not the time to plunge the country in a crisis, so he is not going to support the motion of no confidence. If the vote fails today and unless the MP in question receives a substantial bribe an epiphany, or another government MP does not cross the aisle, this is what is going to happen, the government will be safe for another 90 days (the minimal time between motions of no confidence under the Macedonian constitution).

[Beagle]

VMRO-DPMNE are already crowing about a landslide win, certainly in the presidential, but also in the parliamentary election.

It seems that the last minute SDSM instruction to abstain from voting in the presidential election didn't reach enough people in time. Holding turnout below the 40% required by the constitution would have meant a re-do, but even with not all of the precincts reporting, the number of voters in the presidential election has reached 46% (with some 54% voting for parliament). Gordana Siljanovska is as good as elected.

For parliament, it is too early to say for sure, but VMRO-DPMNE are on track for a majority and SDSM may fall to historic lows.

[Beagle]

Holy cats, this is a massacre. With 60% of the vote in (with the Albanian bloc overrepresented, but not by a whole lot):

VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition - 40,04%
DUI-led Albanian coalition - 16.59%
SDSM-led coalition - 13.61%
AA/Besa/Alternative Albanian coalition - 13.60%
Levica (Putinist far-left) - 6.56%
Znam (SDSM splinter) - 4.88%

All signs pointed to a VMRO-DPMNE win, but by 10% or so, not by a 3 to 1 margin. Voter fatigue with the hapless SDSM administration can only do so much. To all extents and purposes, this shuts down the prospect of 'the French proposal' path to EU membership for (North) Macedonia and the changes in the constitution, which were planned for later this year. This can also mean the end of the Prespa agreements, as VMRO-DPMNE now have the mandate they requested to renegotiate the treaty and revert the country name to (Plain) Macedonia, even if VMRO-DPMNE do not have enough votes to form a government on their own (back of the envelope math suggest that they are on track for at least 55/120). All in all, this is a marked defeat for the pro-European forces in the country.

[Beagle]

Levica (Putinist far-left) - 6.56%

Wth?

What? The "only parliamentary party in North Macedonia that has openly aligned itself with Russia over the war in Ukraine", and parrots the "down with liberal fascism, EU, NATO, Israel and Soros" line can be described as Putinist, no?

Anyway, with about 8% of the vote outstanding, but with the seat totals unchanging for the past three updates, so at most plus or minus one seat, the final results seem to be:

VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition - 43% - 59 seats (+15)
SDSM-led coalition - 15% - 19 seats (-27) !
DUI-led Albanian coalition - 14% - 18 seats (+2)
AA/Besa/Alternative Albanian coalition - 11% - 13 seats (+1)
Levica (Putinist far-left) - 7% - 6 seats (+4)
Znam (SDSM splinter) - 5% - 5 seats (new)

Due to various Albanian parties changing allegiances, the movement in seats isn't precise, but w/e. Basically VMRO-DPMNE has a completely free choice who to rule with. And, since I left it unsaid in my previous post, a lot of their win is down to their anti-Bulgarian rhetoric. At least they will get their chance to rename the country to Regular or Garden-variety Macedonia soon.