UK Local Elections 2022

[vileplume]

Yes but it isn't going to be the case there.

While the 2 constituencies covering the council area were relatively poor Conservative results in the 2019 GE (it part due to the Lib Dem targeting), ‘Conservative remainers’ are pretty much the most resilient group of Conservative voters post-2019, and before their recent polling troubles there were actually many returning to the Conservatives (particularly those who had switched to the Lib Dems). Even now, YouGov polling has found Johnson’s approval rating among remainers is down by only about 5% since the 2019 election, while it’s down 20% among leavers.

Beyond the depolarisation around Brexit and Corbyn’s specific ability to alienate cultural conservatives, it’s also hard to imagine Kensington and Chelsea being the area where the Conservatives current woes around Partygate (‘one rule for them’) and the cost of living crisis are going to disproportionately hurt them.

Although admittedly these areas actually saw some of the heftiest swings to Labour at the 2021 mayoral election. Admittedly this was probably partly due to Khan, having positioned himself as a defender of pro-European liberal London values throughout his tenure, having strong personal appeal among these kinds of voters, and thus we shouldn’t read too much into it especially as it relates to council elections, but still an interesting tidbit.

(Also we shouldn’t conflate K&C with the likes of SW London. Whilst similarly inclined liberal Remainer professionals certainly do exist, it’s in rather smaller numbers. The area is simply far more Tory, and slightly, but noticeably, less Remain-voting.)

Yes Khan did do well in Inner London but in the wealthy K&C wards he still mostly lost by over 2:1 when you factor in postal votes. This was, as you say, in part due to Khan running a pro-EU, 'defender of liberal values' campaign but I would say it was more to do with Bailey basically running an Outer London grievance campaign. This is why he did so shockingly well in heavily minority, rock-solid Labour areas like Newham and Greenford. I think the 2021 mayoral results should be treated as an aberration specific to that campaign and those candidates that is very unlikely to be repeated. The Assembly results were far more 'typical' and the Council elections will likely follow that pattern (albeit with the Lib Dems doing better in their South Western strongholds).

Also, I would go as far to say as the type of voter likely to be *least* horrified by Boris Johnson's recent behaviour would be found in the ultra-wealthy parts of the Capital: Chelsea, South Kensington, Knightsbridge, Belgravia etc. These people wouldn't have been really affected by lockdown at all (other than the inconvenience of being unable to jet off to one of their villas) and  are the types of people to think that 'the rules that apply to the plebs don't apply to us' (not making any specific accusations or anything), with BoJo being very much 'one of us'. They did have a vested interest in preventing Brexit, and even then they still backed the Tories, but now that process has been completed and de-polarisation on that issue is underway, they have virtually no incentive *not* to vote for them. The Conservative Party, is and always has been, 'their party' in any case.

[vileplume]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1522360731760480257

Wandsworth starting to come in now. That Labour/Lib Dem split in a place like Wandsworth is interesting to note.

You can't assume that Lib Dem voters and Labour voters are simply interchangeable. There is a significant demographic of people (wealthy homeowners) that will sometimes vote for the Lib Dems but would never vote for Labour. You'll find a fair few of these types in the new very expensive riverside developments in Nine Elms.

There is a reason why Labour's current strategy for defeating the Tories in 2024 seems to involve the Lib Dems hoovering up soft Tory votes. These people could quite possibly be persuaded to vote against the Tories but most could never bring themselves to vote Labour.

[vileplume]

Second council done.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1522364643708125190?s=20&t=5rzXZLc...

Classic every vote matters situation.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1522364790332661763?s=20&t=5rzXZLcZ...

Tories in Worchester are expecting to lose enough seats to lose control of their minority to a different coalition.

Lol that is a great Americanism

[vileplume]

There is a reason why Labour's current strategy for defeating the Tories in 2024 seems to involve the Lib Dems hoovering up soft Tory votes. These people could quite possibly be persuaded to vote against the Tories but most could never bring themselves to vote Labour.

It's nearly always been the case that the unwinding of any sort of polarisation is good for Labour.

Yes, I agree with this. It benefits the Lib Dems too. Corbyn being Labour leader stopped a certain type of Tory voters shifting Lib Dem as they feared that this would let Corbyn be PM, so they reluctantly and very unenthusiastically voted Tory to stop him. Starmer is much less scary to these people and they wouldn't lose sleep over him becoming PM, even though they probably still don't much like him or his party.

[vileplume]

The current line the the Tories are doing fine outside of London is going to collapse once we get the Scottish and Welsh results.

It's not really true anyway, is it?  There are lots of places outside London with bad Tory results: Portsmouth, Southampton, Worcester, West Oxfordshire (look at the 2018 results in some of those wards the Tories lost), Cumberland to name a few.  Some of those are quite Brexity, too.

It is true that there are some places where they held up quite well and even gained seats: most obviously several Greater Manchester boroughs and some Midlands districts (and that random Barnsley ward).  But that's far from being the general story in England outside London, even in "Red Wall" type areas.

Obviously there are local issues at play too and people are quite often voting on those issues instead of national ones. Those Greater Manchester Councils for example have long been Labour run so honestly you'd expect the Tories to do better in places like that simply by saying 'Labour is running the council badly and has taken x, y and z decisions that you don't like'. Conversely you'd expect them to do worse in Councils they either have run for a long time or have done until recently.

[vileplume]

https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/hampstead-get-out-of-bed-call-as-labour-win-with-paper-candidate

One of my favourite stories of this year’s elections: Labour put up a paper candidate in extremely wealthy long-time Tory stronghold Hampstead Town, they do not put any resources into the ward, he still wins, and he has to be woken up and taken to the count he was told he didn’t need to bother turning up to!

It is inaccurate to call Hampstead Town a 'Tory Stronghold'. It voted Labour last year for Mayor and Assembly and definitely went red in both the 2017 and 2019 General Elections. Yes, it was traditionally much more Tory pre-Brexit (though the Lib Dems often did well back in the day) and it does remain more Tory in council elections than it does nationally. A Labour gain there is perhaps a bit surprising as they were pretty far behind in 2018, but considering how this ward has voted in other elections recently it is hardly the earth-shatteringly shocking event this article makes it out to be.

Also, according to a Labour Activist on Vote UK Forum, Mr Cohen did campaign in the ward, albeit without much support from the local Labour Party. This wouldn't make him a 'paper candidate' either, as that is someone who is persuaded to stand for a party in a ward thought to be a complete no-hope area just for the purposes of to giving their voters a candidate to vote for, but who does no campaigning, canvassing or leafletting whatsoever. That clearly wasn't the case here.

[vileplume]

Is there a lack of coverage about seats and councils flipping in the south because the media think that it’s insignificant in the number of seats that will change in a GE, or is it largely just ‘mud red wall’?

I’ve just re-looked at them and they’re very bad- especially in Somerset.

I really think the Tories could be in for a very nasty shock courtesy of the Lib Dems at the next general election in the Home Counties and, as you say, possibly even the old Southwestern Liberal strongholds. I think many Conservatives are kind of assuming that the strong Lib Dem performance in the former in 2019 was a Brexit fluke, but that Brexit has killed them off for good in the latter. A potentially hugely dangerous complacency…

That’s without even getting into Labour gains in Worthing etc.

Definitely true. The Tories were very lucky Corbyn was Labour leader last time as the threat of him becoming PM convinced most Tory-LD swing voters to reluctantly vote for the former to stop him. This is unlikely to be the case next time unless somehow Starmer falls over 'Beergate' and is replaced by someone from the left. How exposed to the Tories actually are to the LDs in the South in a General Election context is a very interesting question that I don't think any of us know the answer to. I will say though that Theresa May should be fine in Maidenhead as long as she wants it as the type of voter that is likely to shift from Tory to Lib Dem nationally (very prevalent in her constituency) is also the type that really likes/respects/sympathises with her.

I wouldn't read too much into Worthing specifically though, the demographics there are shifting swiftly towards Labour (the Brighton effect) and so a Labour gain is those seats is inevitable at some point in the future regardless of who are the Party leaders and the stances they take. This is similar to how a Tory gain somewhere like NE Derbyshire was always going to happen regardless of Brexit, due to the politics and demographics of the area is simply shifting in a way that heavily favours the right.