2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[vileplume]

The Democratic caucus needs to come out in support of it right now.

Not yet, methinks. They shouldn't be too loud about it. If your opponent is in the middle of making a mistake, don't interrupt them.

Whilst I agree this would be the best strategy for the Democrats to take, it is quite a sad indictment of this whole process when a sensible, fair map is portrayed as a 'mistake'.

[vileplume]

We have our first change to the GOP draft plan:

In response to complaints from residents of Ray County (which was split between MO4 and MO6), Ray, Carroll, and Chariton are now entirely in MO-6, and MO-4 has taken a portion of Jackson County (which is now split in 3).

What portion of Jackson? Are there images or a bill anywhere?

That MO-05 reminds me of the MO-05 that existed in the 2000s, only it's sizably bigger. Goes to show how KC has bled population and fell in statewide population % over time.

Though Missouri had 9 congressional districts back then so you'd expect the district to be geographically larger now. Jackson County actually grew faster than the state over the last decade (after lagging behind it for many previous decades) unlike St Louis which still is bleeding population.

[vileplume]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

Why Kirkwood?

It's basically the only heavily dem suburb that can't fit into Missouri 1 as its a bit further away and on the southside .

Correct, and it's also very White, so you probably don't want to put too much of it in MO-1, otherwise the district will no longer be plurality Black Voting Age Population.

Anyways, swapping the remainder of St. Charles for Southern STL County leaves the 3rd district just a little shy of Kirkwood. Adding another county into MO-2 would allow the 3rd to expand to take Kirkwood, which makes MO-2 from a lean R district to a pretty strong Trump double digit seat.

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1489241774627467266

If I was the Missouri GOP I would give MO-02 both Warren and Lincoln and strip it of any strongly Democratic City in St Louis County (except for Creve Coeur which I've left for neatness purposes). Then shove the strongly Dem cities south of St Louis that don't fit into MO-01 into MO-03 (Webster Groves, Shrewsbury, Kirkwood etc.)  and drown them out with blood-red rural areas stretching along the Southern Bank of the Missouri River out to Morgan County.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e598195f-f1ac-4c2e-80ce-4abff963e386

-All incumbents live in their current districts
-MO-02 is dragged up to Trump+15.4%
-The other 5 R districts are kept above 60% Trump, so as not to upset the incumbents
-No counties are split other than the 2 necessary ones (St Louis and Clay)
-No city in St Louis County is split