Canadian by-elections, 2015 (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2015  (Read 62349 times)
Boston Bread
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #25 on: February 08, 2015, 07:56:17 PM »
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My point being that the new voters the NDP picked up hasn't lead to new seats, which is your goal as a party in FPTP. In a sense the NDP vote in Toronto has become inefficient because the party now lacks a stronghold. If the NDP wants a significant Toronto caucus, they should focus their appeal to the bobo-ish downtown or working class immigrants. The NDP in 2014 tried to win both groups and ended up with a lot of narrow losses and just two narrow wins. They should aim to win both groups in the long-term (since it would be necessary to from an NDP government), but until they poll at ~30% it's more fruitful to create orange cleavages in the city so they have a decent number of seats.
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Boston Bread
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #26 on: February 08, 2015, 08:04:22 PM »
When was the last time the NDP had 2 seats or less in Toronto at Queen's Park? Anyone???
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Boston Bread
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2015, 12:32:01 AM »
San Francisco is super-upscale in its cost and yet it's more consistently left-wing than Toronto all things considered. Rising prices will cause people earning middle class incomes to feel poor and with the right push they'll eventually start voting that way, too. The NDP isn't lost completely in gentrifying areas like Trinity-Spadina.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #28 on: April 22, 2015, 01:20:44 AM »
How does an urban riding have native reserves? Just native neighbourhoods you mean?
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2015, 02:28:25 AM »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on April 22, 2015, 06:35:39 AM
Quote from: Mideast Speaker New Canadaland on April 22, 2015, 01:20:44 AM
How does an urban riding have native reserves? Just native neighbourhoods you mean?

The Pas is not an urban riding Tongue
For some reason I thought The Pas was in Winnipeg at the time.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #30 on: June 08, 2015, 08:12:37 PM »
PLQ lead is growing in Chauveau. Unexpected.
79/184 reporting, PLQ has 3041 - 2738 vote lead
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #31 on: June 08, 2015, 08:36:51 PM »
Do many Quebecers vote for the governing party so their riding can reap the benefits, as Sudbury did?
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #32 on: July 14, 2015, 08:19:01 PM »
Dang, so much for Notleymania.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #33 on: July 14, 2015, 08:52:30 PM »
NDP wins Dartmouth South!!!
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #34 on: July 14, 2015, 08:54:18 PM »
Final results:

NDP 2274
Lib 2193
PC 1494
Ind 490

Strong enough to hold in any recount, I think.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #35 on: July 22, 2015, 04:36:58 PM »
Simcoe North had one of the strongest swings towards the OLP in 2014 (more than 10 points) so I can still see them finishing a strong second.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2015, 08:56:54 PM »
Not a strong performance, but what is essentially a repeat of the 2011 results in this riding should not scare the OLP.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #37 on: September 03, 2015, 09:19:07 PM »
First poll in Foothills has PC leading NDP and WR in a distant third. It's the retirement residence, interestingly.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #38 on: September 03, 2015, 09:40:49 PM »
WHY ARE PEOPLE VOTING LIBERAL
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #39 on: September 03, 2015, 10:54:21 PM »
First ADV poll is dragging down the PCs more than anything.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2015, 08:36:22 PM »
It seems as if the Liberals are overperforming.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2015, 08:44:58 PM »
QS is second in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne! That's an impressive for a fourth party that got 11% last time. I hope it holds.

Edit: they literally fell to 3rd as I typed this Tongue
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2015, 09:14:23 PM »
QS sliding, but now it looks like PQ could take SHSA???
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2015, 09:27:01 PM »
Those single digit QLP victories were I presume against a more or less unified sovereigntist vote under PQ. If QS+PQ wind up getting >50% as they are currently are, or even if they manage to combine for more than QLP, it would be significant.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #44 on: November 13, 2015, 05:25:14 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2015, 06:14:04 PM by New Canadaland »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on November 13, 2015, 04:20:12 PM
It won't be the NDP, if that's what you're asking. It's Whitby.
They came second in 2011 federally and in 2014 the NDP got 23%, close to their provincial average. Removing the Oshawa part could reduce that by a few %. So it's possible they could be second, although I don't think it will be the case.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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Posts: 3,636
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Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
« Reply #45 on: November 24, 2015, 09:36:40 AM »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on November 23, 2015, 10:06:12 PM
Calgary-Greenway MLA Manmeet Bhullar (PC) died in a car accident.
He's quite young, too. RIP.
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