Swann V. Altmire + PA U.S House predictions

[bullmoose88]

PA 8 - This race is funny. Just when I started to think that Fitz might be rethinking a run, a prominent Dem activist who I am friendly with expressed her certainty that Fitz will take the seat back because all the GOP needs is a slightly better GOTV effort in 2008. If the election was held now, Murphy wins fairly easily. He gets props for voting against the budget but let's wait to see if he gets the same positive press, etc. in 2008. If Fitz doesn't run, though, don't expect the national GOP to pay much attention here.

I concur. I wonder if Fitz doesn't run (its possible, he might have burned himself out from 05-07), i wonder if the GOP pleads with Greenwood, who is comfortable in the private sector. They'd have to, I don't see anyone who can give Pat a run for his money willing to challenge him.

[bullmoose88]

Looks like Lynn Swann might run against Altmire. Swann is a charismatic, attractive minority candidate who is still popular  in this part of Pennsylvania with those who remember him from his playing days with the Steelers.  Does Swann's interest signify that Melissa Hart is bowing out of a rematch?

Is Altmire the right type (culturally conservative, fiscally moderate) Democrat to hold this district? I think Rep. Altmire is a lot like Ron Klink, who was a perfect fit for this working class district. I wouldn't be surprised if Altmire's political career mimicked that of Jim Gerlach, a tempting target that remains elusive and dashes his opponents hearts every two years.

For the record, here are my current views of the PA House Races that could be competitive:

PA-04: Leans Democratic

PA-06: Slightly Leans GOP. I hope Republicans don't view Mr. 51% as having an impregnable advantage. For all the GOPers who think he's invincible, they should take note of Anne Northup. For all the Democrats who think he'll be knocked off in '08, look no further than another Republican woman in a swing district, Heather Wilson.

PA-07: Likely Democratic. Curt Weldon easily held this seat for 20 years until he was unceremoniously dumped by political neophyte Joe Sestak. Admiral Sestak's impressive showing is evidence of his likely staying power. He'll also benefit from the collapse of the GOP machine in Delaware County which parallels the GOP's downfall in Nassau County, NY.

PA-08: Slightly Leans Democratic. This and IA-02 were the only races I was actually disappointed the Democrat won. Rep. Patrick Murphy has deftly purveyed his military experience into a high-profile role as the de facto spokesman fro the House Democrats on Iraq. I actually think the Democratic members of the "Near Miss Club" such as Linda Stender, Larry Kissell, Dan Maffei, Darcy Burner, Tessa Hafen, Mary Jo Kilroy and more have a better chance of winning than the GOP incumbents like Jim Ryun and Mike Fitzpatrick who are seeking revenge. If Barack Obama is the Democratic standbearer and the war in Iraq is still the paramount issues, expect Murphy to win.

PA-10: Pure Toss-Up.  Only in the perverse world of computer generated gerrymandered congressional districts can disgraced Rep. Don Sherwood  win 47% in the terrific Democratic year of 2006 despite allegations that committed the reprehensible and inexplicable act of choking his mistress. Jake has pointed out that this district has a 50% solid GOP registration edge. If Chris Carney can continue to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi and the ultra-liberal Democratic House leadership, he'll have a chance of holding this conservative and fiercely partisan district.  Jason Altmire must follow the path of Ron Klink, Jim Gerlach needs to eat lunch with the likes of Heather Wilson and Robin Hayes and Chris Carney must channel the political magic of Tim Holden.

PA-15: Leans GOP. Don't listen to the DCCC --  Charlie Dent is not vulnerable. Charlie Dent is a member of the dying breed of socially moderate Republican in the mold of Mark Kirk and Mike Castle. When they retire, like their fellow part outcasts the Dixiecrats, they will be replaced by someone from the other party. Unless the Democrats nab a strong recruit and the Republican malaise continues, expect Dent to continue his promising career though 2008.

PA-18: Likely GOP The Rep. Tim Murphy scandal is simply too complicated for average voters to grasp. I'm convinced the only scandals voters understand are sex scandals (Clinton and Foley) or corruption (DeLay and Ney). Murphy's district is solildy red and will insulate him from any polititical fallout.

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

We'll see. I'm not 100% confident as you are that this will occur, but it seems to be the probable outcome. Murphy hasn't done anything that would cause his defeat. But much can change in a year and a half.

We're not even sure it Murphy's opponent is fitz yet.

[bullmoose88]

We'll see. I'm not 100% confident as you are that this will occur, but it seems to be the probable outcome. Murphy hasn't done anything that would cause his defeat. But much can change in a year and a half.

We're not even sure it Murphy's opponent is fitz yet.

We won't beat him without Fitz. Fitz is probably still running though I have my doubts now. As of now, he's in and he'd easily win the primary.

I'm thinking that the GOP could still give murphy a run for his money even without Fitz.

Question is if any of those Rs would want to run...and we're gonna need to get some younger people to fill some bench spots.

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

My desire to unseat Murphy aside, he hasn't done a terribly bad job...I wish he was on our side though.

[bullmoose88]

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

He's not coming back, moose, and personally, I wouldn't want him.

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No, they can keep him.

Of course you wouldnt want him. But I would...as would plenty of Bucks County-ers

[bullmoose88]

Tomlinson could chew into the slightly democratic areas of lower bucks (Areas like Bristol were a loss in the first place).

Plus Tomlinson's district starts to stretch north into central bucks...where Fitz underperformed in 2006.

[bullmoose88]

Tomlinson could chew into the slightly democratic areas of lower bucks (Areas like Bristol were a loss in the first place).

Plus Tomlinson's district starts to stretch north into central bucks...where Fitz underperformed in 2006.

So he'd be perfect if Fitz didn't run but I think he'd need a lot of convincing in order to get in.

Well, I'm not sure...some people are gonna need a reason to vote Murphy out...he hasn't given one...yet

Murphy's got a young look to him...some might see him as a rising star...Tomlinson has a much older look...that might be difficult to beat.

But there isn't really anyone young who could run.

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.