New Jersey 2008

[bullmoose88]

New Jersey will probably be somewhat close in 2008. Id say the DEM by 7.

That was basically what it was in 2004.  Delaware could also be an interesting possibility. 

If Rudy could flip New Castle County, or close the gap there enough to flip delaware, then the Dems have all sorts of problems.

[bullmoose88]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

[bullmoose88]

NEW JERSEY -
Clinton (D) 52%
Giuliani (R) 47%

CONNECTICUT -
Clinton (D) 53%
Giuliani (R) 45%

Its hard to see Giuliani winning either New Jersey or Connecticut, however.  Also for the measure:

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

Your making the democrat lead in each of the three states because you are a democrat. I don`t doubt that Giuliani might loose Connecticut because it is heavily democratic. But I think that New Jersey might swing republican. It is always one of the closer states along the east coast, that and New Hampshire.

I think that Giuliani might have a chance in New York and I will tell you why. My history teacher told me that most of New York is conservative but what gives it to the democrats by such a big margin is that New York City is liberal. But, I believe that Giuliani might have an advantage in New York because he was mayor of New York City and the rest of New York is conservative.

What the hell happened to Upstate's biggest cities? Did someone nuke them? ...No.

Cities in Upstate New York are losing population...Syracuse, I think Buffalo...not sure about albany...

[bullmoose88]

I think Giuliani could so some major damage in Passaic and Bergen Counties, and make Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset more Republican...but I think the odds are against him getting the additional 5% or so needed to actually win the state. But if any of the Republicans can win NJ, its Giuliani...but I say the odds are 2 to 1 against.

[bullmoose88]

I think Giuliani could so some major damage in Passaic and Bergen Counties, and make Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset more Republican...but I think the odds are against him getting the additional 5% or so needed to actually win the state. But if any of the Republicans can win NJ, its Giuliani...but I say the odds are 2 to 1 against.

A moderate Republican can win NJ, I was suprised at how well a medicore conservative Republican did so well here in 2004, and the reason Kean didn't win 2006 was that year presented odds that were soo dead set aginst a Republican combined with the fact that he wasn't a strong canidate, But still he was close to victory then Foleygate broke.

Theroetically? Maybe...Unfortunately, there seems to be substantial partisan support for both parties, regardless of the candidate, and the Dems have the best of it.

South Jersey isn't the sort of area thats, initially going to lean to Giuliani...while Giuliani is going to have a tough task breaking down that dem advantage in formerly semi competitive areas up in the north(east)

[bullmoose88]

I think Giuliani could so some major damage in Passaic and Bergen Counties, and make Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset more Republican...but I think the odds are against him getting the additional 5% or so needed to actually win the state. But if any of the Republicans can win NJ, its Giuliani...but I say the odds are 2 to 1 against.

A moderate Republican can win NJ, I was suprised at how well a medicore conservative Republican did so well here in 2004, and the reason Kean didn't win 2006 was that year presented odds that were soo dead set aginst a Republican combined with the fact that he wasn't a strong canidate, But still he was close to victory then Foleygate broke.

Theroetically? Maybe...Unfortunately, there seems to be substantial partisan support for both parties, regardless of the candidate, and the Dems have the best of it.

South Jersey isn't the sort of area thats, initially going to lean to Giuliani...while Giuliani is going to have a tough task breaking down that dem advantage in formerly semi competitive areas up in the north(east)

However despite these odds New Jersey will most likely be up for grabs come 08, Also if Ohio leans Democratic going into 08, Rudy will need to take New Jersey in order to win.   

The only reason NJ was as close as it was in 04 was due to the Bush 9/11 bounce that he received in much of suburban NYC.  A bounce which is gone for the GOP.

How Bush did in 04 is basically the best a Republican can do in NJ.  Rudy might make it interesting, but he wouldn't win, no other Republican would have a shot in hell.

No Smash. I don't buy that. 2004 was the best a Bush style conservative could do in New Jersey...not necessarily a Republican.