Liberal or Democratic?

[bullmoose88]

I am hesitant to say there is a democratic trend in Chester County (I think someone mentioned that there was a 1.3% swing to the dems this past election)...the map indicates a trend in chester...thats all well and good (but it also indicates a similar trend in lancaster county...and if you think that county will ever go dem...you're nuts.)

Chester is a growing county...and it seems that both the numbers of Rs and Ds are growing, the Ds at a faster rate than the Rs...that said, unless the Ds really out pace the Rs...I could be in a coffin sooner than the county goes democrat (if the trend actually holds up).

The problems as I see them

For the Republicans...
Big gains out west...problem is, where the GOP is gaining are in counties that are slow (or even negative growers)...which probably means that while  the GOP has converted some dems, many dems have either died, or moved out (to where, I don't know)...it doesn't seem like theres a growing trend of Republicans...just negative democratic growth.

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

[bullmoose88]

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

Rethink what you just said.  Montgomery we flipped 2 state House seats (one of them with a sitting incumbent and the other was previously held by the very popular Ellen Bard) and almost got 2 more.  We also came very close to flipping one in Delco.  Plus you have to admit that a few in Bucks and a few more in Montco and Delco will flip upon retirement of the current incumbent.  As for the Philly Dems sick of the city, well I'm one of them and as for national/state poltics, my opinions as are many others, are going nowhere. 

3 house seats? thats it? thats not that many...and I don't know if I could hang my hat upon that (and as for the possible open seat races, we'll see when we get there).

What I am talking about Flyers is that its all well and good to be a suburban democrat...and vote democratic...but they're still suburbanites...and the democrats have been able this far...to not stir up city-suburban tension...I don't know how long that will last...and if it doesn't that could be very very very porblematic.

[bullmoose88]

See the suburban-urban divide was a good GOP issue in the 1980s, one of the reasons why the GOP won Bucks, Montco, Delaware...

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, but the same issues remain and influence voting in the same way...suburbanites fear whats happening in the cities happening to them (more or less)...and to some degree, people associate that (especially before, but still now) with the democratic machines. You can argue whether thats fair or not, but thats how they see it...

For instance..."John Street is ruining Philadelphia. We left Philly because it sucks. Oh John Street's a Democrat...better watch out for those city democrats, don't let them do to X County what they did to Philadelphia"

Back in the 80s that was easy enough...the burbs were republican anyway...but now with the Democrats getting stronger, they're gonna have to walk a fine line..."We're democrats, but we're not like those guys downtown." It seems like a hard line to walk, without ruffling feathers internally that is.

[bullmoose88]

This stuff about Pennsylvania is getting annoying.  Let me sum up every thread about Pennsylvania since the last election:

SE trending Dem, SW trending Rep, Santorum is probably going to lose, the end

Shut up.  You are probably really from New Jersey.

Let's not be vulgar here.

LOL... okay... saying the someone is from New Jersey is steping over the line, I will admit.

Yeah man...its not like you have to live near that godawful state.