2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[RINO Tom]

Hidalgo County, Texas

Biden: 59%
Trump: 40%

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 28%


Uhhh, is anyone else concerned by like the 20% swing to Trump in like exclusively Mexican-American counties?

I mean this is like Bush in 2004 levels amongst hispanics. Regardless of who wins, this is going to be the story of the night.

He literally staked his political career on hispanics being evil and they vote for him.  Don't get it.

Illegal immigrants*

[RINO Tom]

Whats going on in the great plains?

Lutheran guilt? can't just be noise, can it?

We don’t do that, total Catholic thing.

[RINO Tom]

Biden-Harris wins, but closely.....

If Biden retires in '24, Harris needs to do better with black men.......

On ABC News, they were discussing Biden's weaknesses with black voters. As a black man myself, I detest Kamala Harris, and voted for Biden in spite of her. This is definitely an area of concern for Democrats moving forward.

I don't know if the problem is that she is married to a white man (it shouldn't matter), if she wins the vice presidency, she needs to go to more Black neighborhoods

No, the problem is misogyny. Remember when blacks and Hispanics had a very negative opinion of gay marriage? Well, the same is true in this case. In 2016, I remember talking to a number of my male, working-class, nonwhite colleagues who had a very negative opinion of Hillary Clinton ("b****," "c***," etc.). Why? Well, they couldn't quite articulate it in any rational sense. Yeah, we all get it.

Racist

[RINO Tom]

Biden-Harris wins, but closely.....

If Biden retires in '24, Harris needs to do better with black men.......

On ABC News, they were discussing Biden's weaknesses with black voters. As a black man myself, I detest Kamala Harris, and voted for Biden in spite of her. This is definitely an area of concern for Democrats moving forward.

I don't know if the problem is that she is married to a white man (it shouldn't matter), if she wins the vice presidency, she needs to go to more Black neighborhoods

No, the problem is misogyny. Remember when blacks and Hispanics had a very negative opinion of gay marriage? Well, the same is true in this case. In 2016, I remember talking to a number of my male, working-class, nonwhite colleagues who had a very negative opinion of Hillary Clinton ("b****," "c***," etc.). Why? Well, they couldn't quite articulate it in any rational sense. Yeah, we all get it.

Racist

Yeah, I'm racist because I'm accurately reporting my personal experience, and what public opinion surveys consistently indicated about nonwhite opinion of gay marriage until very recently. Stop it, Tom. I'm not aligned with the political party that almost monolithically supports an authoritarian, racist sexual predator.

Aligning with a “good” political party doesn’t absolve one of his or her nastier qualities (like racism or classism), as you are excellent proof of.

[RINO Tom]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something. 

Please. I'm not saying Democrats didn't run negative ads, but you cannot with a straight face argue that Biden campaign was fundamentally about voting for something as opposed to Trump's being almost entirely about the evil of the Socialist radicals taking over

Voting AGAINST something (i.e., against socialism) IS voting for something from a right wing perspective, though.  A left-leaning party can’t function as an “adult in the room” party with no bold message, IMO.

[RINO Tom]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something. 

Please. I'm not saying Democrats didn't run negative ads, but you cannot with a straight face argue that Biden campaign was fundamentally about voting for something as opposed to Trump's being almost entirely about the evil of the Socialist radicals taking over

Voting AGAINST something (i.e., against socialism) IS voting for something from a right wing perspective, though.  A left-leaning party can’t function as an “adult in the room” party with no bold message, IMO.

So Republicans were voting for ' against socialism'. Got it

Don’t be a dlck.  Yes, they were voting against an increasingly socially and economically liberal society.  That some crazy claim?

[RINO Tom]

Kevin McCarthy is only leading his Democratic opponent 54-46. This is the most GOP district in the state.

Further confirming that California is the best state in the nation.

The GOP at the moment is winning precisely no districts in CA by double digits.

Many better measures for being the “best state in the nation,” lol.

[RINO Tom]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323863787825438720?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323864021167198209?s=20

Good God, lol.

[RINO Tom]

Why the hell are people having a debate about the semantics of Latin/Latino/Latinx, when that has absolutely nothing to do with why Biden significantly underperformed among FL and TX Latinos?

Why did he?

[RINO Tom]

I'm really excited to see the exit polls dissected.  I know they could be totally off, but they have such interesting stuff in them.  For example, as Biden seemingly gains among White college grads (going from Clinton barely losing them to Biden allegedly tying with them), Trump's gain among the $100,000+ crowd increased from four years ago?  Assuming for a second that is true, it would point to some serious generational divide explaining at least some of these trends.  (Obviously, when we look at specific places like Johnson County, KS or whatever, that doesn't hold up; these are national numbers.)

[RINO Tom]

I'm really excited to see the exit polls dissected.  I know they could be totally off, but they have such interesting stuff in them.  For example, as Biden seemingly gains among White college grads (going from Clinton barely losing them to Biden allegedly tying with them), Trump's gain among the $100,000+ crowd increased from four years ago?  Assuming for a second that is true, it would point to some serious generational divide explaining at least some of these trends.  (Obviously, when we look at specific places like Johnson County, KS or whatever, that doesn't hold up; these are national numbers.)

Honestly I wouldn’t rely on early exit polls for demographic estimates. The eventual election study should be very interesting though, and the varying swings are very unique to this election and fascinating.

Another interesting if expected thing is that a pretty decent number of Trump 2016 voters (likely OBAMA-TRUMP VOTERZ lol) did in fact go for Joe Biden, along with Biden winning massive majorities among former third party voters and those that didn't vote in 2016.

[RINO Tom]

Just got up, what's the consensus if Peters will make it in MI?

I like Peters, but this would disappoint me.  For one, it would be an interesting upset, and secondly ... let's be real, it would benefit the GOP a LOT to stumble into more minority Senators.  Whether you're "racist" or not, you get your rhetorical act together if minorities are standing by your side.

[RINO Tom]

Trump barely won Oklahoma County, 49.2%-48.1%.


So close to breaking the GOP all-county sweep that they have done since 2004. I think by 2024 we can finally break it.

If the Democratic nominee manages to win in 2024, Democrats could break the all-county sweeps in both Oklahoma and West Virginia. Monongalia County was within 2 points.

Has anyone ever compiled out (major) college town counties vote?  Obviously, the vast majority would go for Democrats, but it would be interesting to see the ones that don't.  (Depending on your definition of "major," I know Bloomington, IL's McLean County was usually one.)

[RINO Tom]

Current swing map:

An artist's dream! /s

[RINO Tom]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1324080911571394561?s=19

At least a decent amount of Trump supporters are self-aware enough to know that their support for him is toxic. Too bad they're not self-aware enough to reflect and change.

Or they genuinely believe a conservative/Republican should be in the White House, but the public shaming of supporting the only option available to them to exercise that belief has become incredibly toxic, especially among younger people on social media.

[RINO Tom]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Absolutely he will, and he stands a good shot of winning the nomination.

Maybe.  I personally doubt it.

[RINO Tom]

Also can we put some perspective on how lopsided ED was supposed to be for Trump? The fact that Dems are having such heat ED turnout is probably the most ominous sign for Trump

Not even a hot take.

[RINO Tom]

I didn’t know anything happened today until I heard a “parade” containing some cheering outside my window, scattered with a surprising (though clearly in the minority) number of boos.

For reference, I live in the Gold Coast neighborhood in Chicago.

[RINO Tom]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1325135853304369155

I'm really glad Carter is still alive to see Georgia turn Democratic again.

Even as a Republican, I have to agree with this thought.  I would say the same thing if, say, Ronald Reagan or Richard Nixon had lived long enough to see the GOP regain California or something.

To a political nerd, I feel there is something inherently sad about longtime politicians seeing their safe states defect.