WV- Global Strategy: Manchin +12

[RINO Tom]

I guess I am the only one who never saw these waves and waves of posts praising Morrisey as some godly, A-tier candidate, LOL.  All I ever saw posted was that A) he wasn't that crazy halfwit with the mustache and B) it's really not that surprising that the GOP primary electorate didn't nominate a person who was a Democrat practically yesterday just because MT Treasurer told them over and over that he would beat Manchin, LOL.

[RINO Tom]

I guess I am the only one who never saw these waves and waves of posts praising Morrisey as some godly, A-tier candidate, LOL.  All I ever saw posted was that A) he wasn't that crazy halfwit with the mustache and B) it's really not that surprising that the GOP primary electorate didn't nominate a person who was a Democrat practically yesterday just because MT Treasurer told them over and over that he would beat Manchin, LOL.

1) I never predicted that he would definitely beat Manchin, just that he would make it a Tossup.
2) Jenkins wasn’t a Demorat "practically yesterday", that’s a gross exaggeration right there. And you implying that someone is a RINO is pretty rich as well.
3) You don’t have to be a genius to realize that he would have been a far stronger candidate than Morrisey, who’s having a hard time winning over those DINOs in WV-03 right now!

LOL, okay.  As for your third point, why are you convinced those voters are any more essential than any other area of the state?  Would Jenkins not be doing worse in the 1st than Morrisey?  This is probably 2010 numbers (from Statistical Atlas), but the population is broken down about like this:

WV-2: 625,140
WV-1: 617,080
WV-3: 603,880

WV-3 has the fewest number of voters, and I would wager that WV-1 has the highest turnout.  Morrisey will lose because he's not a better candidate than Manchin, Manchin as an incumbent who is popular in the state for a Democrat and because this is a Trump midterm (no, I don't think it's particularly relevant that Trump won WV by so much to this fact) ... not because a Republican running in WV needs better margins in WV-3 than in any other district, IMO.

[RINO Tom]

LOL, okay.  As for your third point, why are you convinced those voters are any more essential than any other area of the state?  Would Jenkins not be doing worse in the 1st than Morrisey?  This is probably 2010 numbers (from Statistical Atlas), but the population is broken down about like this:

WV-2: 625,140
WV-1: 617,080
WV-3: 603,880

WV-3 has the fewest number of voters, and I would wager that WV-1 has the highest turnout.  Morrisey will lose because he's not a better candidate than Manchin, Manchin as an incumbent who is popular in the state for a Democrat and because this is a Trump midterm (no, I don't think it's particularly relevant that Trump won WV by so much to this fact) ... not because a Republican running in WV needs better margins in WV-3 than in any other district, IMO.

First of all, I strongly doubt that Jenkins lost his primary because he was a Democrat in 2013, lol. Second, there is really no reason to believe that Jenkins would have underperformed generic R in the traditionally more Republican parts of the state like the Eastern Panhandle (and it seems as if Morrisey isn’t doing particularly well there either right now). Third, to win statewide, a Republican obviously has to make inroads in the most Democratic district (in statewide/Senate races) in the state, WV-03. Jenkins was better-suited to pull it off than Morrisey for obvious reasons (represented the district in Congress, more appealing profile/background, etc.). Like it or not, there are a ton of voters in WV who vote R in presidential races but D in statewide races.

I neither like or dislike that, and I obviously acknowledge it as true.  However, I just question if Jenkins really would have pulled THAT many of those voters from Manchin, and I do think he would have done a bit worse in the Eastern Panhandle.  I am definitely not saying Morrisey was a better candidate than Jenkins; I am questioning if Jenkins was really any better, which is your claim.  I think their vote "swaps" would have largely cancelled each other out.  Who knows, though?  I think Manchin would have beat both of them, but I think he will definitely beat Morrisey, and that's the matchup we have.