Gwinnett County, Georgia

[RINO Tom]

Yes. Much of the heavy D trend in suburbs stems from diversification and loss of clear lines between suburban and urban areas, or a shifting of these lines.

While it's undeniable that there has been a very significant shift of some college educated Whites away from the GOP and toward the Democrats (predating 2016), I think demographic change is too overlooked - not even just demographic change as in a change in the racial makeup of the county but rather a fundamental change in the "feel" of the county.  I imagine many of these inner suburbs that were once rock-ribbed Republican had more of a "today's exurbs" feel in the '60s and '70s and '80s, while today they pretty much feel like the outskirts of the city.

[RINO Tom]

Yes. Much of the heavy D trend in suburbs stems from diversification and loss of clear lines between suburban and urban areas, or a shifting of these lines.

While it's undeniable that there has been a very significant shift of some college educated Whites away from the GOP and toward the Democrats (predating 2016), I think demographic change is too overlooked -

I agree, but remember, you're a presumably college educated, presumably white, presumably suburban individual who voted for Hillary Clinton. You act like people like you don't exist, which is rather odd.

Amost!  Not suburban by any stretch.  Anyway, I'm not saying "people like [me]" don't exist; all I have ever said, as one of them, is that they will not become downballot Democratic voters anytime soon.

[RINO Tom]

^ Sorry, I wasn't talking specifically about Millennials when I said "people like me," just college Whites in general.  I don't think that a 50-year old college educated Romney-Clinton voter is going to vote Democrat for Senate next time around, for example.  Obviously, the GOP has some pretty big problems with Millennial voters anyway, and Trump isn't helping.

But please, carry on, LOL.

[RINO Tom]

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Don't you worry! You'll eventually come to the realization that you don't fit in as a Republican once Susan Collins goes down in flames in spectacular fashion in 2020  and Charlie Dent, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Ros-Lehtinen, and Reichert all leave Congress in 2018. At some point it'll dawn on you that the Phil Scotts and Charlie Bakers are the black sheep in the party and their kind will be totally extinct eventually since no one else in the party wants you around

There would almost have to be a democratic shift to the right of all the GOP moderates leave the party. So fine by me if that actually happens.

If the only reason you're a Republican is cuz of tax cuts or whatever and if you regularly have to trash the President of your party, you probably shouldn't be in said party

Why are you so concerned about what party I registered with?  LOL

[RINO Tom]

I'm not. Just trying to wage my campaign to eradicate the bizarre belief that Republicans are gonna head in this mystical unicorn socially utopian-tax cutting Susan Collins-like direction, which seems prevalent among Atlas Republicans in general.

You just think people think that.

[RINO Tom]

Love your maps. This really sheds light on how quickly demographic changes, and thus changes in political leanings, take place.

It's way too simplistic, but if we assumed that Whites and Non-Whites voted about like they did in 2016 in Georgia during all of these years, these would be the results.

(Obviously, there weren't elections on five-year intervals, but you get the point.)

2000: 58.80% GOP, 38.50% DEM
2005: 52.40% GOP, 45.41% DEM
2010: 50.81% DEM, 47.40% GOP
2015: 52.97% DEM, 45.40% GOP
2017: 53.89% DEM, 44.55% GOP

Obviously, actual election analysis takes other things into account, but this shows how demographic change alone could theoretically account for an almost 30% swing without a single voter changing his or her mind.  Again, this is unrealistic and just a hypothetical exercise, but that is pretty crazy and needs to be considered more often, IMO.