I think she has a better chance to win it simply because it is a Lean or at least Tilt Democratic state.
Add into that the fact that it's not an amazing fit for Trump arguably...
Plus it has many evangelicals which he will presumably perform poorly.
He actually does pretty well among evangelicals - he won them in the Republican primary while it was still a competitive race, astoundingly - proving that most Christians have never actually cracked open their Bibles.
He does poor, however, among upper midwest voters/people with whatever that intangible midwestern sensibility is called.
It's called being polite and respectable.
Poll
