Astorino could beat Teachout
I'm not sure about that. In a race between some-dudes the partisan tilt matters.
Except Astorino is not some dude.
Being an unknown county executive doesn't make you anyone. He's unknown and has no money to become better known, so partisan labels would carry the day.
If he was facing Teachout the "no money" thing would quickly change. A lot of major Republican donors have stayed home or have even given to Cuomo. They would swing hard to Astorino.
Donors would then move in for Teachout and even the score. There is no way Astorino would win, in any scenario involving Teachout vs. Astorino one-on-one.