OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R) (user search)
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  OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R) (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)  (Read 30893 times)
Mr. Smith
MormDem
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Posts: 33,504
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« on: January 18, 2023, 08:03:26 PM »

Do we non blu/yella's get to loao if he ends up pulling a Susan Collins, or more accurately, the GOP guy ends up about as good as Sara Gideon?
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Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,504
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2023, 09:44:38 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2023, 06:06:49 PM by Mr. Smith »

Despite Obama winning Ohio by 3% in 2012 Brown only beat Josh Mandel by 6%. So assuming the GOP candidate in this race isn't like him (very likely) and Trump wins Ohio by 8+ again (probable), it's very tricky for Brown to win.

First of all, Trump isn't guaranteed to be the nominee. He's favored but there's still an opening for a candidate like DeSantis to pull off the upset.

Secondly, Trump (or any Republican) could theoretically win the race by more of a J.D. Vance margin than his 2016 and 2020 margins.

Finally, if Brown runs as much ahead of Biden as he did Cordray in 2018, he wins.

That was 2018, and Cordray v. DeWine was a rematch. So that's really not applicable.
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