Texas 2022 megathread

[Mr. Smith]

Still think he should do what Feingold couldn't in 2016 and take on Ted Cruz again.

[Mr. Smith]

You know, three years ago, coming off the closer than it had any right to be run against Cruz, he’d have a real shot.
Then he proceeded to burn all of his good will on a quixotic presidential run.

Nah, that's Espy '20 or Feingold '16 turf. 

[Mr. Smith]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

If he loses TX-Gov big time in 2022 which seems like the more likely scenario, his political career likely fades, at least until he is able to reinvent himself.

If he comes surprisingly close, it could give him a 2018 boost again

A surprisingly close loss will put him in the Harvey Gantt/Erskine Bowles  category.

I disagree; neither were ever anywhere close to as big of names as O' Rourke is today and that was in a time where there was much less national media on this sort of stuff

Feingold then.

Ideally he ends up creating a bit of a Machine that ultimately leads to the big shift.

[Mr. Smith]

Also I want to give the Beto campaign some respect. Even though at the end of the day Abbott is prolly winning, he's campaigned seriously and actually gone to quite a few communities that generally are extremely lopsided towards Rs.

Yup, though he's not seen as strong as 2018 after his embarrassing WH bid in 2019/20. Maybe he should have run for senate in 2020 and then either win an upset or just quit running for office in the immediate future.

Against Cornyn? Arguably the most respected [albeit by being anonymous] of the big three? I don't see him doing much better than Hegar.

The real problem is that Abbott is not Ted Cruz, and Trump wasn't re-elected, which pretty much reversed the fundamentals of 2022 inherently.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't think Beto will win in November, but the Republican strategy of treating races that they keep winning by ~5 points as Safe R because "winning by 5 and winning by 25 is the same thing" is eventually going to fail.

Happened to Virginia in the Oughts just like this, happened to Georgia in 2020.

[Mr. Smith]

Alright folks, here’s a question for y’all because I’m curious to know what y’all think.

What are some counties that you think Abbott will win but Paxton will lose? For me, the only one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Williamson County.

Tarrant?

[Mr. Smith]

So, will Beto get over or under Biden's percentage?

Very likely under at this point.

Definitely under Hegar at the worst.

[Mr. Smith]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

A lot of it may also have to do with rapid urbanization in the areas between Austin and these exurban cities like Bastrop and (until recently) San Marcos. With places like Bastrop and Elgin, there's still quite a bit of rural countryside in between those towns and the main urban cluster of Austin and its suburbs. But with the recent rapid growth of Kyle and Buda, that rural countryside that used to separate Austin and San Marcos is being urbanized fast. This can also already be seen with the suburbs of Georgetown, Hutto, and Taylor, and that's also part of why trends in Williamson County are some of the most brutal for Republicans, possibly even more so than in Collin, Denton, or Fort Bend.

Not to mention Temple/Belton/Killeen to the north.

[Mr. Smith]

Last two Texas Governor Elections

2018
Greg Abbott (R) 4,656,156 - 55.8 %
Lupe Valdez (D) 3,546,590 - 42.5 %

Difference: 1,109,566

2022 [Unofficial Results]

Greg Abbott (R) 4,427,345 - 54.8 %
Beto O'Rourke (D) 3,545,032 - 43.8 %

Difference: 882,313

2020 Presidential Race

Donald J. Trump (R) 5,890,347 - 52.1 %
Joseph R. Biden (D) 5,259,126 - 46.5 %

Difference: 631,221

And yet some liberal Atlas Tards have that PIPE-DREAM they can turn Texas Blue if Trump is the Nominee in 2024. Not happening! Where do you find 600K+ extra Votes? Please explain?

My Prediction: Texas stays RED even if Trump is the Nominee.

Interesting that you ignored Senate 2018 because it doesn't fit your narrative,

2018

Ted Cruz (R) 4,260,553 - 50.9%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 4,045,632 - 48.3%

There you go, if we can get those voters out then we only need 200k, not 600k.

Am I saying it's even remotely likely? Nah, I think Texas would still probably go for Trump by around or under 5 points, but I also think Trump is far more comparable to Cruz in terms of divisiveness than Abbott.

Joe Biden is no Beto O'Rourke.

  Trump is no Abbott.