PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Mr. Smith]

Endorsed...too bad it's 2022.

[Mr. Smith]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

Wisconsin...2012. Madison lesbo didn't stand a chance.

[Mr. Smith]

I mean, yes, Lamb's message (and all of their messages) are going to be different right now in the primary vs. the GE. So not sure why it matters that he's not focusing on things like inflation right now specifically when I'm sure whoever is the winner of the primary will definitely focus on all those things after May...

Not to mention, at the same time, I don't think it's correct to say his entire message revolves around the filibuster and 1/6, b/c that's just not true if you follow him.

Also just given Lamb's objective electoral history, not sure how he could really be called 'unimpressive'. Fetterman for better or worse just doesn't have that concrete argument since he's never been in a GE.

Of course - it's not utterly devoid of kitchen-table issues like Gideon's or McGrath's campaigns were. And even I don't think it'll be in the general.

But from what I've seen he's pretty clearly centering social issues over economic issues.

You're an optimistic one. This is strange.

Anyway, you're focusing on the wrong Mc-G. The Mc-G kind of campaign we should be worried about is the one that Obummer actively installed at the expense of Sestak, which allowed The Tumor a second try.

[Mr. Smith]

....I'm getting real Sestak v. McGutless/Specter vibes from this.

[Mr. Smith]

I am currently backing Conor Lamb, but I've watched Kenyatta effectively articulate himself and make his case. I could honestly see Lamb come in third. I agree that he really needs to switch this up and differentiate himself in the field. He's giving off too many "generic Dem" vibes and not enough energy brought to the table. I like his calm demeanor and blue-collar sentiment.

However, I could end up voting for Kenyatta if this keeps up. Fetterman, on the other hand, is unapologetic and comes off as callous. He's a terrible debater and can't throw together coherent points. Even still, he's the front-runner and doubt he wins the general. The man is too far left.

Then why is he winning easily? He can't be that bad of a candidate if he is crushing the field.

Purely name recognition and more funds. Nothing more.

Getting your name out there and raising money are part of what a successful candidate needs to do. Primaries have a purpose, more often than not the strongest candidate wins them. 

The 2016 primaries don't agree with this, YMMV on 2010 too.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't think the Fetterman campaign is limited to Twitter owns, and the debates could be something to see if he's like this on the campaign trail.

That's not to say that it would be enough to make this race defy the national environment, though. I'd still bet against Fetterman unless the environment improves at least a bit for Democrats.

It's possible Shapiro still gets him over the line.

And besides, the state booted an incumbent not that long ago, and by a lot...all while the other states re-elected theirs, even though they were all guilty of gutting education.

But I do want to see a bunch of Shapiro/Fetterman +4 at the minimum before getting too optimistic.

[Mr. Smith]

Oz would be doing wayyy better if he just started running ads that say something like, “ENDORSED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP”. The fact he’s completely abandoned any reference to Trump on the trail AND the fact he is terrible on the doorstep is a recipe for disaster. I could see a huge undervote in the Senate race if he keeps this up.

Trump lost this time.

[Mr. Smith]

The best strategy against Fetterman would be to try and paint him as an out-of-touch phony who is more interested in being a celebrity than a politician... too bad for the Republicans that this strategy doesn't work when your nominee is a literal out-of-touch phony celebrity.

Worked in 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

It also would not surprise me if Oz truly did not have his heart in this. I really think initially he thought he would be able to parachute in and use the 'Dr Oz' fame to his advantage and the accolades he got from people during that show to boost his candidacy, and I think now he may be realizing that it was a total miscalculation.

Yup, and he possibly assumed the national environment alone would carry him over the finish line.

It still might, but I'm gonna assume a lot of unexpected GOP wins first atp.

[Mr. Smith]

Honestly, it's reminding me right now of WI-2016, with the differences being that Fetterman was never as strong a candidate as Russ Feingold, and Dr. Oz isn't the incumbent.

Except Johnson was seen as a heavy underdog all the way up to Election Day.

Johnson literally got carried over the line by Trump. If Trump had lost Wisconsin, he would have also lost.

Not entirely true given he did a few point better than Trump. There def was a theoretical window for a Clinton-Johnson split in WI

Feingold took a higher raw percentage than Hillary.

[Mr. Smith]

It's pretty funny that our collective impression of Dr. Oz when the race started was "another TV snake oil hack." Then over the course of the race details about him emerged like a leaking faucet to slowly reveal he's a demonically vile person on par with Trump.

.  What's the difference here exactly?