Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[Mr. Smith]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

[Mr. Smith]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

Thats the problem though, thats not at all enough delegates to make it to the convention, and the way the primary is formatted, momentum is key. For instance, if hes not able to win an early primary state, most likely IA or NV, then his momentum dies, and even if he does, it wont guarantee him victory against rather big juggernauts like Harris and Sanders.

Also, Im pretty sure you just listed a bunch of states with heavy Hispanic populations. While I agree that may be one of his strong points, the vote is likely to be heavily contested, considering Sanders is currently winning it and Biden/Harris will be vying for it.

If I were to name Beto's biggest problem, its that his base is too spread out. While he clearly will wipe the floor in TX, outside of that state, he doesnt have a strong enough floor in a bunch of these states, unlike Harris(Deep South), or Sanders(New England, Great Plains). If he wants to win, hes gonna need to find some area or demographic he can win in, and win big, otherwise, hes not getting to the convention.

Except I don't necessarily think Bernie is locked in with The Great Plains, to which the Texas Panhandle isn't dissimilar from.

So take that out, assume Warren and Sanders duke it out in New England, The South gets split a bunch of ways like it's '88 all over again [and given the disproportionate focus there in the primaries, the establishment and yes, Bernie too, will go crazy there, a split is highly likely], then The West and Great Plains become more important.

And those heavily Hispanic states are also very suburban too, both of which seem to be Beto's forte. And it's not entirely unfathomable that he uses that to turn those states [or in the case of California, just SoCal] into a good base.

His roadblock is Iowa. Getting there, that is that is crucial. And that is the problem.

[Mr. Smith]

Republicans want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee and fear Beto could drain key constituent support from him. They are trying to cut him off at the knees before he even enters the race.

They ought be careful what they wish for.

Such groups loved Obama around Iowa/New Hampshire 2008, then turned their affections to Hillary off all people once Obama proved a staying force.

[Mr. Smith]

Republicans want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee and fear Beto could drain key constituent support from him. They are trying to cut him off at the knees before he even enters the race.

Yeah, that almost never works out when the opposition party tries to pick their competition. Just a couple of examples:

1960: Being Catholic, Nixon believed Kennedy would give him the edge in the election.

1980: The Democrats wanted Reagan to be the GOP nominee, as they saw him as "too Conservative for the Nation to handle".

2008: Obama was seen as the man that could lose the election to McCain, and Clinton as a guaranteed loss.

2016: Trump was seen as the man who would lose the election by 20 points.

It did work in 1972, and Trump is in a lot of ways...very Nixonian.

[Mr. Smith]

Republicans want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee and fear Beto could drain key constituent support from him. They are trying to cut him off at the knees before he even enters the race.

Yeah, that almost never works out when the opposition party tries to pick their competition. Just a couple of examples:

1960: Being Catholic, Nixon believed Kennedy would give him the edge in the election.

1980: The Democrats wanted Reagan to be the GOP nominee, as they saw him as "too Conservative for the Nation to handle".

2008: Obama was seen as the man that could lose the election to McCain, and Clinton as a guaranteed loss.

2016: Trump was seen as the man who would lose the election by 20 points.

It did work in 1972, and Trump is in a lot of ways...very Nixonian.

One example of success doesn’t exuse the strategy’s long history of failure.

True, but once again, Trump is very Nixonian, and he has a vast right-wing media machine [and Manchurian agents like CNN and Politico] this time, not just insider operatives.

Also, there's 1988 when Gary Hart was sabotaged by the genius that turned a 20-point drop to an 8 point win.

[Mr. Smith]

Republicans want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee and fear Beto could drain key constituent support from him. They are trying to cut him off at the knees before he even enters the race.

Yeah, that almost never works out when the opposition party tries to pick their competition. Just a couple of examples:

1960: Being Catholic, Nixon believed Kennedy would give him the edge in the election.

1980: The Democrats wanted Reagan to be the GOP nominee, as they saw him as "too Conservative for the Nation to handle".

2008: Obama was seen as the man that could lose the election to McCain, and Clinton as a guaranteed loss.

2016: Trump was seen as the man who would lose the election by 20 points.

It did work in 1972, and Trump is in a lot of ways...very Nixonian.

One example of success doesn’t exuse the strategy’s long history of failure.

True, but once again, Trump is very Nixonian, and he has a vast right-wing media machine [and Manchurian agents like CNN and Politico] this time, not just insider operatives.

Also, there's 1988 when Gary Hart was sabotaged by the genius that turned a 20-point drop to an 8 point win.

Is Trump so Nixonian that he had the Club For Growth attack himself in the last primary?

He hadn't proven the only option yet. He's a bit Carter-esque in that sense.

[Mr. Smith]

Like Kamala, not bad, if severely flawed, and more needed in the state than at the top.

[Mr. Smith]

O'Rourke will need a stronger operation and to clearly define his positions if he doesn't want to end up being a "flavor of the month" candidate.

He's not out yet.

And it's not like his Senate campaign pulled every string to perfection. Remember, he seriously underwhelmed against a no-namer Latina in the primaries before even getting to the General.

[Mr. Smith]

I have a hunch about Beto's strategy for the primaries. He is running as a centrist/moderate (and maybe the only one of significance--IF BIDEN DECLINES) hoping to win over many of the same people that supported Hillary in 2016 and counting on all the progressive/socialist candidates to split that segment of the party across many candidates. In other words, Bernie had his segment of the party all to himself last time, but he won't have this luxury this cycle. Beto may even be able to win over some progressive voters (voting for personality over policy) as well as disillusioned Republicans. If I was forced to wager real $$$ on this outcome, I'd favor Beto for this reason. And double-down on it IF BIDEN DECLINES. #betonbeto

Thats a terrible strategy considering there are only two progressives and about 10 moderates running.

PROGRESSIVES:
Cory Booker
Julian Castro
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

MODERATES:
Beto O'Rourke
Tulsi Gabbard
Joe Biden (STILL UNDECIDED)

Care to try again?

Actually it's just Bernie and Warren. Maybe Gillibrand and Harris. Possibly Gabbard

The rest are Moderates.

But thanx for playing

[Mr. Smith]

Ok my question is y tf would he flip flop on healthcare after defending it while running STATEwide in texas and then chooses the opposite in a national D primary.

Unfortunately, it's only solidified my suspicion that he never really wanted to be in the Senate and had his eye on the presidency all along. I don't want to harp on it too much because I can't prove it (obviously), but I was confused at why he seemed to be pandering to a national audience during his Senate run, even after he'd gotten national attention, he could have moderated on a few things like the assault weapons ban and picked up more votes.

That's the problem with rewarding losers and (punishing winners like Sherrod Brown by telling them they have to stay in the Senate or a GOP Guv will replace their seat). It creates perverse incentives that you can never really be sure aren't causing harm.

How has Beto flipped on healthcare- he has always supported Universal Healthcare (just not single payer that must be provided by government run programs).  But also that after Universal Healthcare is achieved... other systems are worth considering.

I think every Dems goal should be for immediately restrengthening the ACA (and reimplement the caps on Private insurance profit margins), Add the public option, and implement the tweaks to Obamacare that Dems have said is needed. Only then should anything else be pursued... otherwise you won't have the infrastructure, much less the votes needed, to achieve the next step.

Problem with that is then the GOP will wrangle there way into suggesting all sorts of ways to do away with ACA, but obviously discreetly. They;ll see that weakness and exploit it.

But going for M4A mercilessly now until the GOP cry uncle creates ground to start off with what you suggest.

You want proof: Look at how gay marriage turned out once the party perfectly painted skeptics as homophobic. Look at how Nancy Pelosi dismantled Bush Jr's attempts to privatize Social Security.

The history is there, so why compromise as a starting point now?

[Mr. Smith]

The two most important states in 2020 will be Florida & Wisconsin. If Beto were to become the nominee I'd like to see him pick the man who came within half a percent of winning the race for governor of Florida, Andrew Gillum. Together, they would comprise a talented (and both youthful and highly energetic) team. Of course, the primary thing lacking on this ticket would be a woman. Amendment 4 (Voting Rights Restoration) having been passed and now implemented in Florida, could create a situation where a narrow loss in '18 becomes a narrow win in '20. Beto would need to constantly campaign in Wisconsin and Gillum would need to double down on Florida. WINNING EITHER STATE SHOULD BE ENOUGH (OVER 270 ELECTORS) TO SEND THEM TO THE WHITE HOUSE. YOUTHFUL AND ENERGETIC DEM TICKETS WIN!

Picking Gillum would be a good way to ensure Trump wins Florida.

Just because you say it, doesn't make it true.

Gillum couldn't win FL in a D+9 year against a man who ran one of the most inept campaigns in history and very likely caused the Democrats to lose yet another Senate seat.

Pence, OTOH, is a very competent VP candidate, and won't make the same mistakes DeSantis did.

DeSantis wasn't that inept. And pretty much everyone besides Nikki Fried lost, which in retrospect suggests more against Matt Caldwell who couldn't keep in line with the constant R+3 bias cloud, while everyone else did.

[Mr. Smith]

Unique contributions wasn't unique donors. Of course they dump this on a Friday.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1109293384005570560

Your fear is showing

It's quite obvious who the Bernie people fear right now.

Likely because Beto will be Obama 2.0 and compromise on every single thing? He already backed off Medicare for All, and don't give me the stupid pragmatism argument.

You have NO idea of what American political culture is like, do you? lol

American political culture is that every President turns out to be far more right-wing than they campaign as. You'd be a fool to expect Beto to be anything but the standard New Democrat that he was for his 6 years in congress.

FDR disagrees with that.

[Mr. Smith]

Ironically reminds me of one Cruz's gimmicks in 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

I mean, he supported Will Hurd and never backed down from that. This shouldn’t be a surprise.

And his Hurd support should be much more potent as an attack than this.

Considering the current frontrunner actually campaigned for quite a few Republicans, that'd be rank hypocrisy.

[Mr. Smith]

I wonder if Iowa will be for Beto what New Hampshire was for Kasich?

[Mr. Smith]

I wonder how different his fortunes would've been had he just announced in January when he had the attention of everyone including Oprah. That whole indecision period along with the media blackout has to be one of the worst campaign decisions of the decade.

That may prove to be true, but I don't think we can say Beto truly messed up until we get through the debates and he fails to have a breakout moment that resurrects his candidacy. That's still a possibility.

Kasich never had such breakouts in 2016. He may have had the best debate performance on pure policy, but he definitely didn't get that across.

He went onto almost take New Hampshire and outlast Rubio.

There is then still that same possibility that Beto could do the same thing Iowa, and THAT failure is where I think then that Monday Quarterbacking would be acceptable.

[Mr. Smith]

Did people really think he had a chance? His only excitement was in Texas because of big it was for a democrat to win or in his case get close to winning. There wasn't excitement for Beto for Beto himself and obviously he didn't realize that

No, Beto was quite the icon down here, and you either loved him or you didn't.

Even in my rather conservative county, you could find 35 yard signs to 1 Cruz...this was in a county that went for Cruz by double digits.

But what worked on a statewide level with relatively little competition isn't gonna work on a national level with 20+ candidates.

[Mr. Smith]

Beto is nothing but Jason Kander 2.0

I actually wonder if Kander hadn't sought treatment for his mental condition, how he would fare in this primary. If Buttigieg could be doing as well as he currently is, I think Kander could have possibly had a shot too.

Kander is actually a dynamic speaker and campaigner, so he’d definitely have shut bland Buttigieg out.

So was Beto during the Senate run. That's what caused all the hub-bub that put him into a field he really shouldn't have entered.

[Mr. Smith]

Is it safe to say that his presidential campaign has ruined his chances of jumping into TX-SEN should he (inevitably) end his campaign?

Against Cornyn? Yes.

In 2024 for a rematch against Cruz when the collective memory has likely forgotten this run? Unlikely
 

[Mr. Smith]

Indiana is still an industrial manufacturing state, and the Commerce department is primarily in charge of industrial manufacturing.  Buttigieg should be Commerce secretary for a few years, build up a good resume, then run for the open governorship in 2024.

The last person to build a political career on Commerce was, who, Herbert Hoover?

I'm not a fan of appointing big names out of electoral politics to the Cabinet, either. This is your politics on Doris Kearns Goodwin, I guess.

Buttigieg ran for Indiana State Treasurer in 2010, so presumably he was and is both willing and able to head a department responsible for managing finances and commerce. 
Also, I'm no fan of DKG, for what it's worth.

Anyway, my broader point is that Buttigieg is probably capable of something more than DNC Chair.  Leave that for a likeable lightweight like Beto. 

DNC Chair is no joke,...or it shouldn't be. Perhaps your attitude is why someone as inept as DWS held on for so long, or why Howard Dean is the only one that wasn't bad.

[Mr. Smith]

His campaign has to be the biggest joke.

Indeed, if this were how 2018 went, he'd have lost to Cruz like it was the 2014 Senate Election and Cruz was John Cornyn.