NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Mr. Smith]

Here’s a brief run down of who I think are the top Democrats with statewide potential. Not all of these names are running for Senate but these are basically all of the big names who have been talked about as candidates.

Senator Jeff Jackson: Seen as the heir-apparent to this seat, Jackson is a popular state senator from Charlotte who has a massive statewide fundraising effort. Jackson campaigned across the state this year for other legislative candidates, presumably to build his name ID. He’s a vet, a former prosecutor, and looks like he’s been building for this run for a long time. Jackson’s negatives are that he’s seen as a bit of a “polished golden boy” by some in the party, and that he’s never faced a competitive race being appointed to his senate seat in a safe blue district.

Fmr. Secretary Anthony Foxx: Former mayor of Charlotte and Obama’s Transportation Secretary. Foxx would be a good candidate but he accepted a job at Lyft a month or so ago, not something he’d do if he was planning on running.

Rep. Brian Turner: Little known state rep from Asheville in the Western part of the state. Turner is a great fundraiser and has ran some incredibly tight races. He won his seat against a powerful Republican incumbent in the red year of 2014 in a district that had voted by almost 20 points for the Republican gubernatorial candidate two years earlier. Turner consistently wins district that’s redder than the state as a whole.

Fmr. Senator John Edwards: John Edwards is probably the strongest can... I can’t write this without laughing, Edwards will not be the nominee unless every other democrat in North Carolina dies. Edwards won’t run, Edwards would lose the primary in an embarrassing land slide if he decided to run. Edwards is not and will not run.

AG. Josh Stein: Incumbent attorney general, all signs point to him running for re-Election and then governor in 2024.

Gov. Roy Cooper: He’s running for re-Election, slight chance he runs in 2022 but no chance he runs this year.

Commissioner Trevor Fuller: Former Chair of the Mecklenburg County Commission, he might be running. Mecklenburg County is the largest in the state and home of the largest city. With Foxx probably out he will most likely be the only non-white male candidate in the race.

Rep. Chaz Beasley: Young African American state House member from Charlotte, he would be a good candidate but NC Insider was reporting he’s running for Lt. Gov.

Sen. Terry Van Duyn: State Senator and minority whip from Asheville, could’ve been a good appeal to suburban white women but running for Lt. Gov instead.

Fmr. Sen. Cal Cunningham: Former state senator and US Senate candidate in 2010. He’s a member of the national guard but he’s running for Lt. Gov.


Basically NC has a pretty deep bench the problem is that they’re almost all white men. Thanks to big wins this year in Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) counties the party now has a lot more young and diverse elected officials, but all of them are too fresh for a statewide race seeing as they haven’t even been sworn in yet. There are plenty of strong candidates on this list and almost any of them would be able to knock off Tillis.

If we're considering Edwards at all...

What about Chris Rey of Spring Lake? Or Deb Ross again? Ross didn't run much behind Hillary despite being a Berniecrat. Or heck, Elaine Marshall, the godmother of modern NC Dems as we know it?


Re: Hagan

That's...really depressing. I knew she had some health issues, but I didn't know it was this severe.

[Mr. Smith]

Beating Tillis requires a good candidate, I hope either Jackson or Stein will run.

If all else fail, can't Kay Hagan be brought back?

Her ACA vote won't be a baggage anymore considering the law's popularity today.

She's no longer in the health to do that.

Also, rematches don't go well usually.

[Mr. Smith]

I honestly don't get why Deb Ross isn't considered. For what 2016 was overall for the state, and considering how mostly inoffensive Richard Burr was, she did quite well.

[Mr. Smith]

I honestly don't get why Deb Ross isn't considered. For what 2016 was overall for the state, and considering how mostly inoffensive Richard Burr was, she did quite well.

She underperformed Hillary Clinton.

It was 2016, everyone not named Jason Kander did that, and Hillary sold 'em all out in an ill-fated attempt to get crossvotes. 

[Mr. Smith]

Dang it! Now Jeff Jackson has to run. Otherwise the Democrats will not pick up the seat.

I doubt NC Dems will get a US Senate seat in the Tar Heel State anytime soon.

Wouldn't be so sure. Especially since Erica Smith seems to be a wildcard.

[Mr. Smith]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

[Mr. Smith]

High Point University poll:

Tillis approval: 27/38 (-11)
Trump approval: 42/50 (-8)
Cooper approval: 43/30 (+13)

https://wcti12.com/news/state-news/hpu-nc-poll-presidential-approval-at-42-governor-approval-at-43

Awful numbers for Tillis but par for the course. Not that it matters since Tillis is the INCUMBENT™ in this race.

RoJo, The Tumor, and Burr were in similar straits at this time in 2015.  That's why the recently returned Russ Feingold, and new Senators McGutless and Ross did an amazing job of blocking Kavanaugh!

[Mr. Smith]

Schumer is horrible:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1180238746488377349

Cannot wait to see Erica Smith pull a Joe Sestak/Andrew Gillum out of all this.

[Mr. Smith]

I used to think this was more winnable for Democrats than GA-S, but I’m not so sure anymore with NC's Democratic trend lagging behind GA's, Cunningham unable to pull away in the primary, and Tillis less and less likely to significantly underperform Trump. Still a Tossup/Tilt R, though.

The race kinda reminds me of FL-Gov in a lot of ways, albeit Tillis has an incumbency advantage that Putnam never had.

[Mr. Smith]

I don’t know Tillis that well-has he pulled a Ron Johnson and become a complete Trump hack? Or has he kept a decent reputation?

He was one of the earliest adopters, not much later than Jeff Sessions.

[Mr. Smith]

No idea if this is the correct thread, but Cunningham seems to be crushing it...though Smith has the lead in a few places in Eastern NC.