CA-Sen: California Quake

[Mr. Smith]

Here's hoping for Harris

[Mr. Smith]

Beats Steyer, who I'd rather see run for Governor...especially against Newsom the egotist.

[Mr. Smith]

I suspect Sanchez will win.  She will probably get the Latino vote which is crucial in California.  She will probably get some Republican votes while Harris most likely won't get any.  And she's also from S. California while Harris is from N California and S California is more populous.

Firstly, Sanchez is very gaffe prone and has said a lot more thing against the GOP. Harris is a lot more affable. It's the difference between some Tea Party guy and Chuck Grassley.

Secondly, the Bay Area has better turnout levels than LA.

Thirdly, the black and Asian votes themselves are hardly insignificant, and Harris will easily lock both of those up along with a good chunk of the white liberal vote based on recognition alone.

Finally, Harris has disproportionate funding on her side.

And as long as criminal justice is a huge concern nationwide and things swing as they do, Harris is going to have a serious edge and could well cut into the Latino/a vote on that alone.

And Sanchez is going to have to overcome all those factors to win...could happen, but very much a longshot.

[Mr. Smith]

If Sanchez makes the runoff, I would have her as about a 2:1 favorite in November, maybe higher if both Hispanic and populist R turnout is way up.

Except you can expect Harris to make serious in-roads with Hispanics, given that her criminal justice records are going to look very attractive.

And Jerry' Brown's endorsement brings a lot of clout to the table regarding R/Indie support.

Sure Sanchez will have the advantages there, but it's not that bad for Harris in that regard.

Now what has Sanchez done for black outreach exactly? She's also still not quite as liberal the NorCal leftists who turnout more, and for those not-so-populist R's (R's are  a minority anyway), what kind of real conservative credentials does she have anymore?

Oh no, Harris has this 2:1 just as long as she stays the course and doesn't seriously mess up, 3:1 if she lightens up and goes full-on Obama (rather than the 60 Obama/40 Hillary sort of thing going on now), and 50/50 if Sanchez does manage some to improve [funding is still a factor after all]