2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[swf541]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

Seems like quite a bit more unaffiliated vs 2016?

[swf541]

Still not understanding the level of bedwetting on the Biden side. AZ and PA look brutal for the GOP right now, NC is showing pretty decent advantage, and NV is showing signs of a very typical Clark firewall. Texas is also looking like voting will be absurdly high.

Florida doesn't have great early signs, but dooming seems at odds with everything else.

Florida doesnt even look bad/doom just looks competitive, and yep it's pretty insane atm.

[swf541]

With so many new voters, Florida will be completely unpredictable.

For once I actually 100% agree with you in this thread

[swf541]

Yea, the shift among the white vote in Florida among seniors may be much more relevant then any gains Trump makes among Cubans, and this all assumes nothing changes in the turnout in the remaining early vote/ election day.

[swf541]

Amazing, how many more early vote days does Texas have?

[swf541]

Amazing, how many more early vote days does Texas have?

Friday is the last Early Vote day, though presumably some of the straggling absentees will come in. Absentees are a pretty tiny chunk of the Texas vote, but it's not zero, so there'll be a little more from there.

Thanks

[swf541]

There is a difference between ignoring the guy and reading it in context and analyzing that 2020 is not 2016 or 2012 and looking through it via reference points that had a very different coalition is rather irrelevant or can really only be extrapolated for more local races.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

Whats the source for this?

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

Whats the source for this?

It's literally right there on the bottom left..

Sorry, my vision is really terrible atm and I missed it

[swf541]

The GOP truly are the scum of the earth at this point

[swf541]

The GOP truly are the scum of the earth at this point

Not even up for debate.  Lock them up.

Truly so, they've been showing concerning signs for years but the past several months has proved beyond a doubt that they are a domestic terrorist front at this point

[swf541]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

The turnout in the state does not look low by any measurement...

Eek, I think I was looking at the wrong figure. In any case, is there any cause for concern there?

Overall it's looking solid, its going to be a counting nightmare tho

[swf541]

Considering this is PA's first year with mail in voting like this and the attacks on the USPS I am not particularly alarmed about the PA number

[swf541]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

Considering the nature of early voting in PA that's quite a good sign

Minority voters tend to vote late/day of for one so if trends  hold this is all quite good

[swf541]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

Considering the nature of early voting in PA that's quite a good sign

Minority voters tend to vote late/day of for one so if trends  hold this is all quite good

I’d think during a pandemic, the early voting rate would be higher.  But I don’t know anything really.

People dont trust the USPS

[swf541]

If it gets thrown out violence is an acceptable if not morally just recourse

Literally the end of a democratic system.... People shouldnt take this lying down....

[swf541]

I swear to God I will not be able to sleep thinking about this

[swf541]

How can Republicans even try to justify this? This is just blatantly evil and anti-democracy.

Because they are fascists

Aint hard to understand

[swf541]

What is it with folks in this thread ignoring the Indy/NPA/NPP votes? I'm getting real sick of it

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1322629187547660289

Bad day to be a doomer.

Ah, who am I kidding, they'll invent some other excuse.

What state?

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1322629187547660289

Bad day to be a doomer.

Ah, who am I kidding, they'll invent some other excuse.

What state?

Florida

Thanks

[swf541]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

What was it in 2016?

[swf541]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

What was it in 2016?

71-24 Trump

Damn, that'd be quite the swing then

[swf541]

If this „curb-side voting“ is handled like a regular election precinct/polling station, with an election commission present, and this judge invalidates 100.000 votes, he’ll probably have crosshairs on his body ...

„We know where you live, you will not see the next day.“

Yeah if they invalidate those votes without an opportunity for those affected to vote, they are basically declaring war....

[swf541]

You know what's becoming a consistent theme in this thread?  the fact that Democrats are over performing EVERYWHERE in the south.  If Biden ends up winning 2 or 3 of FL, GA, NC, TX the unspoken heroes will be Beto, Abrams etc. who registered voters and showed everyone the south was competitive, which made this happen.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised at all if Biden wins 2 of the 4 states above, which essentially gives him the election without needing PA.

Very much so, it's going to def be an interesting night tuesday to say the least