Rate Georgia Gov. in a Perdue (R) vs Abrams (D) race (user search)
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June 20, 2024, 01:49:57 AM
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  Rate Georgia Gov. in a Perdue (R) vs Abrams (D) race (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Your rating?
#1
Safe R
 
#2
Likely R
 
#3
Lean R
 
#4
Tilt R
 
#5
Tilt D
 
#6
Lean D
 
#7
Likely D
 
#8
Safe D
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: Rate Georgia Gov. in a Perdue (R) vs Abrams (D) race  (Read 1429 times)
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,008


« on: November 20, 2021, 12:35:59 PM »

Tilt R in a Perdue/Kemp (R) vs Abrams (D) scenario.  Though Perdue will run somewhat stronger in a general than Kemp.    Kemp has some animosity to deal with the Republican base--Perdue doesn't.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,008


« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2021, 12:50:13 PM »

(I know people like to joke about Perdue's Suburbron Coattails and all, but individual voter file analysis backs this up more than people realize. Perdue did roughly 1 point better than Loeffler statewide in the runoffs, and Abrams did 1-1.5 points better than fundamentals of 2018 would have suggested. However and in the case of both 2018 & 2021, their respective overperformances were 2-3x as powerful among the same higher-income, predominantly white suburban/exurban ATL communities; there are more Perdue '14-Abrams '18-Perdue '21 voters out there than people think)

Perdue would have done even better than Loeffler in the January runoff if Senate control would not have been an issue.  This got enough swing/tilt Democrats to go out and vote for Ossoff unenthusiastically (myself included).

Ossoff owes his Senate seat to the fact he was running with Raphael Warnock (plus the considerable Democratic trend in Georgia in 2020).  And he'll keep his seat until 2027, whereas Warnock is going to have a tough road next year.
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