Florida Senate Race 2010(The Seat Nobody Wants)

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http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/floridapolitics/entries/2009/01/20/mack_im_waiting_for_crist.html

U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers, told WBBH in Fort Myers this weekend that until Gov. Charlie Crist formally declines a candidacy for U.S. Senate, he’ll watch from the sidelines:

“Charlie Crist hasn’t ruled out that he may run for Senate. I know that he’s being courted right now to do so. So it’s way too early to make any decisions like that.”
A “Crist for Senate” campaign appears unlikely at the moment. And several of Crist’s supporters have mentioned Mack, who was among the first elected Republicans in Florida to encourage former Gov. Jeb Bush to jump into the race, as a possible candidate. Bush decided against a campaign earlier this month.

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How "top tier" is Kendrick Meek, really?

Upper tier, maybe, but he's no Alex Sink.  Or, dare I even say it, a white Dem congressman.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0109/Hildebrand_advising_Meek.html

That's why he's top tier IMO

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I'm hardcore, 100% Mack.  I've been a huge fan for some time now and would love to see him move up to Senator. 

Should he run a poor campaign, he'd hardly be the first person who got into political office through nepotism in a partisan district to make a miss-step when having to run an actual competitive race for higher office.

But otherwise I agree.  He seems competent and hell could even make a run for national office some day.  That or Connie V.

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what about wasserman-schultz?  is she out?

yes.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/12/wasserman_schultz_wont_seek_us.html

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what about wasserman-schultz?  is she out?

yes.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/12/wasserman_schultz_wont_seek_us.html

Also, Bill Clinton is fundraising for him.

He's top tier now that Sink is out

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http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2009/01/meek-gets-this-senate-race-started.html

dawg, you can trust me

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Former minority leader Gelber jumps in the Race on the Democratic side:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/Gelber_running_for_Senate_in_Florida.html

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The mayor of Tampa, Pam Iorio, is looking about jumping into the race.

She might be one of the more electable Democrats since that whole Tampa region is a critical swing area

Gelber and Meeks could end up splitting Southeast Florida and deliver the primary results to someone like Iorio

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Did some looking into it, Iorio is by far the most electable Democratic candidate, assuming she can run a good campaign (a big question mark).  It's already obvious that Kendrick will run a professional campaign now that Hildebrand is at his back so I don't really know how this will play out.

Iorio is a centrist, I believe, and from a geographically critical location.  She could potentially beat Mack, which I don't see the other prospective candidates doing as of now.

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 McCollum and Boyd are out

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Rep Buchanan (R) is looking into it too and has a lot of money, but I don't take him seriously

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This is an odd move by Mack.  I think he would have been favored against Marco Rubio in the primary and would have been favored against Meek in the general.  Crist is far from a slam dunk to run, so unless Mack knows something that the rest of us don't....and if he does, maybe Mack wants Crist's backing for governor?  Confusing.

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Politico is jumping on the notion of a Rubio-Crist primary, due to Crist's dismal approval ratings (something in the 20%'s) among Republicans.  Previously, Marco had always been running for "Governor/Senaor, Whatever Crist Doesn't Want 2010," now Marco seems more open-minded.  I think there's a lot of good secret-keepers down there in Florida politics.

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If Republicans were smart they would just let Crist run and win the senate seat. But no one ever said they were smart.

Since the Democrats have passed on several of their more electable candidates (Sink, Boyd, Klein), I see no reason why the Republicans should have to settle, although Mack bowing out certainly alters the equations a bit.  It's still an open seat in Florida in an off-year and that means something.

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If Republicans were smart they would just let Crist run and win the senate seat. But no one ever said they were smart.

I'm a bit undecided about what we should do.  I know the expression "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush", but if we have a significant chance at getting the two in the bush, should we go for it?

If you can't win in Florida (basically the most professional GOP GOTV organization in the country) in an off-year (possibly the best overall off-year GOTV operation), with a candidate like Mack, then he's the least of your worries.

If I was a traditional Republican, I would see no reason to compromise with Crist.  He's gone out of his way, more so than the governors of places like Connecticut and Hawaii, to stick it to partisan Republican politics... there's no reason to suspect he wouldn't be somewhere between Martinez and Collins.  He likes attention, to the point that he might be fine being the one GOP senator to vote certain ways on certain things. 

If this were a more liberal state and/or a state with a less solid turnout operation, then maybe.  But if Mack were to lose against Meek, then the Democrats are probably picking up a handful of other seats (Missouri, New Hampshire, etc).   Kendrick has been running a solid campaign and his campaign manager is the real deal, but he still has to overcome his own biography and overwhelm the biography of his prospective opponents (Mack, Crist, and Rubio all have certain built-in name-recognition or swingy-demographic advantages over Kendrick).

Whenever I read in-the-know blogs on Florida politics (written by reporters who talk to people who know stuff instead of reading AP reports), they all seem to be significantly more skeptical of a Crist candidacy than the MSM and broadcast their skepticism proudly.  Yet, this move by Mack seems to indicate that Crist may be bailing.

Crist has two worries:
1) Being seen as an opportunist jumping from position to position
2) Ruining his political career by having to manage a state budget during a recession. 

Since incumbent Presidents usually get reelected and there's so much star power lined up already, wouldn't surprise me if Crist would hop to the Senate and hope for either the VP slot or perhaps the top job 2016.  I'm pretty sure Jindal is placing most of his own bets on 2016.

We'll see.

/ramble

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there you go.  That explains why Mack bowed out and Rubio is pondering taking on Crist in the primary.  Also why the GOP has been running ads against Sink and pollsters have been testing the governor's race.

GO RUBIO GO.  The Democrats need you.

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http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/04/more-mo-for-meek.html

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mY1qJOM6Qw&eur

Meek on Crist.  Awesome interview background, any Floridians know wtf that is across the ocean?

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Meek represents possibly the fifth most Democratic district [or so] in the entire country. He's gonna swing

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http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/04/charlie-crists-senate-run-hint-see-you-in-washington.html

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C'mon Count Chocula over at Club for Growth, this is the perfect race to get behind.  I used to think Rubio would be favored in a head-to-head matchup but if he has to destroy the popular [except with the GOP] moderate candidate to do so, well.  Anyway, if I was Kendrick Meek I'd write Rubio a check.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/04/a-rubio-vs-crist-primary.html

His approval ratings may be sky high, but if Charlie Crist runs for U.S. Senate he still could face a serious primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. The conservative Miami Republican, in a sharp about face from earlier, said Tuesday that Crist’s candidacy would not deter him from running if he decides to jump into the senate race. Rubio said in 25 days he raised $250,000 for an exploratory campaign for senate and will make a decision within weeks.

“My decision, which I’ll announce shortly, will not be predicated on what anybody else does,” Rubio said in a phone interview from Washington, where he gave a speech and had assorted meetings this week.

That’s a sharp contrast to what Rubio told the St. Petersburg Times in January about a potential Crist senate candidacy: “Everyone on the Republican side that’s talking about running would step aside and acknowledge that Charlie Crist would be the best candidate,” he said at the time.

Since then, however, Crist infuriated many party activists by campaigning alongside Barack Obama for the economic stimulus package, raising the prospect of a challenge from the right.