Will McCain pull out Pennsylvania?

[Lunar]

Obama, Biden, Clinton, and Palin have all campaigned there in the last two days.

I'm going to say not.

[Lunar]

Obama, Biden, Clinton, and Palin have all campaigned there in the last two days.

I'm going to say not.

Yup.  Just like in Iowa, McCain's internals must be showing something we don't see.  But unlike in Iowa, in Pennsylvania, Obama's internals apparently agree if he and Joe Biden are spending time in the state.

Watching where the candidates go and why often tells you more than the polls.

you're assuming that the McCain campaign is based on logic and not on it's candidate's impulses.

Which is a good working assumption considering that the campaign has a LOT more information and analytical capabilities than individual forum posters online   When in doubt, assuming that they are irrational is simply silly.

[Lunar]

Right now Obama leads by about 10-12 pts in the all the polls that have been coming out of PA recently.  But honestly, like I've been saying, does that make any sense?  Look at Kerry 2004. 

-Philly's already maxed out, the city goes 80% for the Dem every time.  Obama's not going to able to improve THAT much.

-Central PA is going to be brutal for him

-Do you see Obama doing better than Kerry in the Pittsburgh area?  I don't. 

So basically, were supposed to believe Obama is picking up TEN points in the state overall from the Philly 'burbs.  Maybe 4 or 5.... not 10. 

I would say that it is very likely that the internals are showing PA reasonably close to the nat'l average... close enough for McCain to stay because he need to close the national gap to win anyway.  Michigan is too stubborn... there was no way McCain was winning it... and if he did it's not like he would've needed it. 

PA is not going to be a 55-43 Obama blowout like the polls show right now.  McCain's chances of winning are beyond slim... but on election day I see McCain doing reasonably well consider that he's looking at a 6 pt loss nationally right now. 

I'll call it 53-45 Obama. 

Take a look at the Casey vs. Santorum map.

If current trends continue, it won't be much different with Obama vs. McCain ...

Actually, you should use a Rendell map instead.

[Lunar]

Right now Obama leads by about 10-12 pts in the all the polls that have been coming out of PA recently.  But honestly, like I've been saying, does that make any sense?  Look at Kerry 2004. 

-Philly's already maxed out, the city goes 80% for the Dem every time.  Obama's not going to able to improve THAT much.

-Central PA is going to be brutal for him

-Do you see Obama doing better than Kerry in the Pittsburgh area?  I don't. 

So basically, were supposed to believe Obama is picking up TEN points in the state overall from the Philly 'burbs.  Maybe 4 or 5.... not 10. 

I would say that it is very likely that the internals are showing PA reasonably close to the nat'l average... close enough for McCain to stay because he need to close the national gap to win anyway.  Michigan is too stubborn... there was no way McCain was winning it... and if he did it's not like he would've needed it. 

PA is not going to be a 55-43 Obama blowout like the polls show right now.  McCain's chances of winning are beyond slim... but on election day I see McCain doing reasonably well consider that he's looking at a 6 pt loss nationally right now. 

I'll call it 53-45 Obama. 

Take a look at the Casey vs. Santorum map.

If current trends continue, it won't be much different with Obama vs. McCain ...

Actually, you should use a Rendell map instead.

LOL

60% to 40%?

Wow.

No silly, it's just Obama is closer to a Rendell-like character than a Casey one.