Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.

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McCain Camp, RNC to Spend $160 Million in Final Weeks

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/10/mccain-camp-rnc-spend-million-final-weeks/

Well oops there goes that sound theory

a) Seems like an exaggerated number
b) RNC never said it would spend its share (100+ million) on McCain.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7TgDanmWkg

I'm not a fan of anecdotal evidence, but if Palin is getting booed by hockey fans, it means McCain is in deep, deep trouble.

these are the same fans that booed and pelted santa clause...

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If you saw Santa Clause you wouldn't yell and throw stuff at him either, but you're not a hockey fan.

All it would take is 10% of the audience to be hard-core Democrats for that sort of ruckus to be made.  I don't think Phil is arguing that 100% of white working class whites love Palin....

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538 bases those rankings off of the primaries, where "right and left-leaning" is meaningless.

SUSA is also ridiculous.  In 2006 they consistently had a 5-6% pro-Dem bias.

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538 bases those rankings off of the primaries, where "right and left-leaning" is meaningless.

SUSA is also ridiculous.  In 2006 they consistently had a 5-6% pro-Dem bias.

And those rankings are therefore nullified?

They are all we have to go by until the 2008 election is over and Nate decides to update those rankings.

I would bet that Nate figures in those ratings into his daily calculations... (see the weights of the polls).

Say whatever you want.  SUSA is the most erratic credible pollster, showing jumps of dozens of percents in its results over mere weeks.  It's not right-leaning and in in past elections has had a Democratic bias and is often more Democratic than other firms thus far in 2008, although not always.

Nate's model is overhyped.  His brilliance in his projections in the primaries used *NO* polling data...

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I agreed with most of your post, just not the idea that SUSA is right-leaning.    Just because I'm a (D) doesn't mean that I have to think that the world is skewed against me!

538 is a great site and the only of its kind, it is just flawed in some notable ways (relying on the 2008 primaries for pollster ratings and for undecided breakouts are the two biggest) and tends to overanalyze and extrapolate minor things....

  This site's map is far more flawed, but it doesn't try and predict anything.

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538's is the best out there.

I don't know of any other predictive maps that use models though.

Pollster.com has the best snapshot capabilities.

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Don't be annoying sir.

I agree with Phil that McCain's strategy is to win PA and that McCain has a better shot than the raw numbers would indicate.

But McCain is not going to win PA and thus not going to win the election, so I don't see the point.